Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Democracy Night

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  • HenryB,

    Just after the election Key said, I think, that under an FPP system, National would have got 65 seats and labour 35.

    Under Supplementary Member - using the results from the night and assuming that the electorate seats would have split roughly in proportion to how they fell on Saturday night and also assuming that there would have been no incentive to support ACT or UF in their electorate seats - the results would have looked roughly something like this? Also assumes the retention of Maori Electorates and removal of threshold.

    National 71 seats (56 electorate+15 list)
    Labour 38 seatls (29 electorate + 9 list)
    Maori 4 seats (4 electorate)
    Mana 1 seat (1 electorate)
    Greens 3 seats (3 List)
    NZF 2 seats (2 list)
    Cons 1 seat (1 list)

    Really not all that different from FPP in my view.

    Palmerston North • Since Sep 2008 • 106 posts Report Reply

  • martinb,

    Herald says Carmel ahead by 10 votes...! Fingers crossed

    Auckland • Since Jul 2010 • 161 posts Report Reply

  • HenryB, in reply to martinb,

    +1 in spades (or should that be Hearts?)

    Palmerston North • Since Sep 2008 • 106 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to martinb,

    Herald says Carmel ahead by 10 votes...! Fingers crossed

    Yes, lets hope it goes a lot higher! Otherwise there's sure to be a recount. But even to be highest on first full count is a major symbolic victory out west.

    The booth division has been stark, which accounts for the big see sawing effect on election night. Some booths heavily for Labour, some for National, divided roughly along the lines of the most valuable property - which in Waitakere is in the hills. I've often thought people from the remoter parts of West Auckland were more rural than urban, which to me explains the red-blue battle at the border. The people in Titirangi and Henderson are one of the only urban groups I know who constantly hanker to be further from the city center. As the mid west suburbs have grown in value, they have traded up and moved further west. Often, but not always, glad to be quit of the growing ethnic diversity of the inner west. It was not very long ago that West Auckland was very rural indeed, my parents distinctly remember coming down my own street to buy from the orchards where my house is. The end of my street, up until only a few years ago was a big horse ranch, it was really weird to be able to walk down there with my son to watch a couple of old horses galloping around. Now it's going to be converted to a big retirement village. Te Atatu was the back of beyond until the north western motorway was put through there, and I think there's still a horse riding school tucked in there over the motorway from the motocross speedway.

    The old west was very much a white neighborhood. This has changed and to me it would be incredibly heartening if Sepuloni took Waitakere, as much to show that the racism that was the least attractive thing about my father's side of the family is something that poorer westies have largely gotten over. Also, to disassociate with Paula Bennett.

    Curiously, I have recently found out that both sides of my family at my grandparents generation were neither Labour nor National, but voted Social Credit loyally en masse. This included my grandfather who made all his money in property. I guess the post-war period set a lot of people to thinking about just how responsible fucked up capitalism was for all of those guys buried in Waikumete Cemetery, but at the same time Stalinism was a stark warning about just where Marxism could take things.

    That Social Credit never got any serious representation in Parliament despite getting as high as 20% of the votes in 1981, and polling as high as 30% a few times, is one of the strongest indictments on FFP we've had in this country. Muldoon might never have happened if we'd had MMP. The country could have been on an extremely different financial path.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8737 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    The old west was very much a white neighborhood.

    Also significant migrant families from less pale parts of Europe, without whom our wine industry would be somewhat different.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Special votes are counted and results are in.

    National loses a seat and falls to 59, the Green Party gains a seat and will have 14 MPs. In the two tight electoral races, Labour's Brendon Burns has lost Christchurch Central to National's Nicky Wagner by 45 votes and Labour's Carmel Sepuloni takes Waitakere off Cabinet Minister Paula Bennett by just 11 votes.

    ...

    MMP is also confirmed as the voting system in the final results of the referendum also held on November 26. Some 57.77 per cent backed MMP and in part two 46.66 per cent supported FPP as the most preferred alternative.

    The majority support for MMP means the system stays but a review of the system is triggered.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Christopher Nimmo, in reply to Sacha,

    in part two 46.66 per cent supported FPP as the most preferred alternative.

    Bit misleading, given 748,000 informal votes!

    Wellington • Since May 2009 • 97 posts Report Reply

  • Clint Fern,

    Of the other two confirmed Govt parties, ACT got less votes than Mana dropping from 85,496 to 23.889 and the Peter Dunne Party got pretty much the same as the Bill and Ben Party did last time - 13,443 to 13,016 which would be a joke if he hadn't been given so much by Key.

    Great that MMP is retained, needs to be changed to stop the Key/Banks/Dunne behaviour of this time round though - any solutions?

    Nelson • Since Jul 2010 • 59 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Christopher Nimmo,

    Bit misleading, given 748,000 informal votes!

    Quite. Voters managed to find a 'no confidence' option

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • HenryB,

    National received 5,240 more votes than in 2008
    National+ACT+UF received 63,421 votes less than in 2008.

    Labour received 171,944 less votes than in 2008
    Labour+Greens+NZF received 40,000 votes less than in 2008.

    Palmerston North • Since Sep 2008 • 106 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Sacha,

    Quite. Voters managed to find a 'no confidence' option

    Most people I've spoken to who voted this way did so because they wanted MMP and it wasn't one of the options. It did rather annoy me how bloody minded these people were, given that there was a small chance that the system could have bloody well changed back to FPP. There were 3 other better systems, although, yes, none as good as MMP, IMHO. Essentially, they were too lazy to think about it.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8737 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Clint Fern,

    Great that MMP is retained, needs to be changed to stop the Key/Banks/Dunne behaviour of this time round though - any solutions?

    There's a few solutions, although an obvious one even without reform is for the left to simply do the same damned thing. Endorse an ex-Labour candidate in a new party, let's call it the "Center Left Party", advising Labour voters to split. With a few of these in the Labour strongholds, Epsom is neutralized.

    I'd rather this didn't happen, because it is ridiculous and would cause overhangs, but if ACT is going to continue playing this game with National...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8737 posts Report Reply

  • Christopher Nimmo,

    Or we could say that it's not a problem. Both parties got enough votes to merit a seat.

    Wellington • Since May 2009 • 97 posts Report Reply

  • stephen walker, in reply to Christopher Nimmo,

    not sure what you mean by this. United Future were nowhere near getting a list seat even if there were no threshold.

    UF: 13,443 party votes

    total party votes counted: 2,257,336

    divide that by 121 to get: 18,655

    Act got exactly what they deserved this time, from a proportionality point of view.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 635 posts Report Reply

  • stephen walker,

    no one got the electorate seat exemption from the 5% threshold this time. that exemption should be chucked out. the threshold should be halved to 2.5% imho.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 635 posts Report Reply

  • Richard Grevers, in reply to HenryB,

    Just after the election Key said, I think, that under an FPP system, National would have got 65 seats and labour 35.

    If we had stuck with FPP in 1996, the formula which determines the number of electorates (based on a South Island quota) would have meant more than 130 MPs by now. Which is why it annoys me so that for some people their sole motive for voting against MMP is that we have “too many MPs”.

    New Plymouth • Since Jul 2011 • 140 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Richard Grevers,

    we have “too many MPs”

    another measure of the right's success in pushing over many years the notion that government is a problem

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Austin,

    I am really pleased about the margin of victory for Option 1, however you play it, it is solid, thumping even, support for MMP

    London • Since Nov 2006 • 897 posts Report Reply

  • Islander,

    Haere mai na MOJO!

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to Richard Grevers,

    If we had stuck with FPP in 1996, the formula which determines the number of electorates (based on a South Island quota) would have meant more than 130 MPs by now

    Not nearly that many. More than the 99 we had, certainly, but under 120.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3012 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Sacha,

    we have “too many MPs”

    another measure of the right’s success in pushing over many years the notion that government is a problem

    Especially droll when coupled with "catch up with Australia", the land of multiple multi-level parliaments.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 3628 posts Report Reply

  • HenryB, in reply to Ben Austin,

    Yes. In 1993 the vote for MMP was 54%.

    Palmerston North • Since Sep 2008 • 106 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    the land of multiple multi-level parliaments

    and tripartite wage bargaining

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    I imagine it depends whether you're talking about child support for otherwise working parents or the DPB - they are different things, right?

    The government doesn't recover anything when its a working parent, only when it's on the DPB.

    divide that by 121 to get: 18,655

    You don't divide each list seat evenly. The Sainte Laguë method means that the first list seat is much easier to get than that. The first one kicks in at about 0.6% of the vote, the second at about 1.4%?

    Since Nov 2006 • 6227 posts Report Reply

  • stephen walker, in reply to Kyle Matthews,

    0.6% of the total vote counted would have been 13,544.
    UF got 13,443 party votes.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 635 posts Report Reply

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