Hard News by Russell Brown

Read Post

Hard News: Last Words

211 Responses

First ←Older Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 9 Newer→ Last

  • Ben McNicoll, in reply to James Butler,

    If you’re thinking that, don’t you also have to think about how much of the Greens’ soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Green? Or how much of the Greens’ soft support will also think about how much of the Greens’ soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Labour? (:

    Yep. Recursive.

    This is about the point I remind myself that one vote does far less than how many people you can convince to vote in a particular direction.

    Grey Lynn • Since May 2007 • 110 posts Report Reply

  • Ben McNicoll, in reply to Samuel Scott,

    ... it’s the arrogance of that man that really freaks me out. He used to perform as the nice guy to distract the centrists from what English was up too. He’s lost his composure over the teapot tapes and just seems to be generally a bit pissy and sick of campaigning. He is polling so high he just sort of doesn’t want to lose as opposed to trying to win. He is the ABs at half time in twickenham 99…but Labour aren’t France me thinks.

    Labour could be France, but the game started at 50-28, and the ref looked the other way for the first half. And has been trying to apply penalties equally, so as not to appear biased.

    Grey Lynn • Since May 2007 • 110 posts Report Reply

  • Robert Urquhart,

    Party vote Greens. Here in Wigram the electorate vote doesn't mean much, but that's ended up gong to the Green candidate as well. Keep MMP with STV as an alternative.
    For the detailed reasoning behind my votes - here's one I prepared earlier

    Christchurch • Since Mar 2009 • 142 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    Good Lord, if DPF’s latest hysterical attack on Winston Peters isn’t proof NZ First is over the 5% threshold according to National’s internal polling I don’t know what is.

    It could also be a very reliably indication that Peters has a blindingly obvious track record of being a divisive, toxic and unreliable presence in every government he's been a part of. Just to throw a crazy idea out there.

    We need to seriously address issues of real, organic democracy in this country, from how to re-create mass-participation political parties to reform of the media, party funding and lobbying laws. Otherwise, we will are on a path to revist the 1930s when democracy was seen as discredited in the light of economic crisis and political failure and people will seek other political structures to replace it.

    Since I doubt Russell wants to have to charge up the cattle prod of loving correction today, I'll just say I find your analogy fundamentally flawed.

    The Nats have gone pretty hard on trying to roll Lees-Galloway but it has been so long between drinks for them that you have to wonder about how much real chance they have but they got to within 1,000 vote last time.

    As I understand it, boundary changes have made Palmerston North more marginal on paper - but I think National would be pretty pleased if Leonie Hapeta shaved Lees-Galloway's majority back to three figures and won the party vote.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12034 posts Report Reply

  • FletcherB, in reply to Tristan,

    I think question 2 is wrong.” Under which system do you vote for a party and an electorate MP?”

    correct answer PV!?

    I've just re-taken it and they have corrected it... SM&MMP it is...

    West Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 794 posts Report Reply

  • Heather Gaye, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    (**FULL DISCLOSURE**: The Greens got my party vote. Got a problem with that? Tell someone who gives a shit – that ain’t me.)

    au contraire, I want to give you a big hug, although you'd likely find that equally offensive. It's confirmed every good thing I already believed about you, for what that's worth. Is there a "happy tears" emoticon?

    Under the western motorwa… • Since Nov 2006 • 523 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Samuel Scott,

    Norman is just #nzmusic #mint topical

    heh

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16771 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Ben McNicoll,

    one vote does far less than how many people you can convince to vote in a particular direction

    +1

    or even just convince people to vote

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16771 posts Report Reply

  • Samuel Scott,

    oh yeah...and this was awesome; what the two major party leaders were thinking about at the same moment this morning;

    https://dl-web.dropbox.com/get/Public/IMG_6121.jpg?w=02601469

    South Wellington • Since Feb 2008 • 300 posts Report Reply

  • hamishm,

    I think that the Greens should get everyone's party vote. To keep the other bastards honest.

    Since Nov 2006 • 345 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Ben McNicoll,

    Labour could be France, but the game started at 50-28, and the ref looked the other way for the first half. And has been trying to apply penalties equally, so as not to appear biased.

    and one team has managed to convince the other (and the ref) that they're actually playing netball

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16771 posts Report Reply

  • PaulC,

    This has been a disappointing election, police raiding media up and down the country, the pm kicking off the campaign with misleading parliament over the s+p comments, the country being held to ransom to hive off assets despite our dire history with asset sales and the dubious economic justifications surrounding the sales

    Further the machinations of act, and Epsom, from apparently the most ‘popular’ pm we have ever seen, just demeans us all

    Auckland • Since Nov 2011 • 19 posts Report Reply

  • Samuel Scott,

    Craig you are a complex man...Green party vote as they are the stable coalition party that National need? Gareth Hughes can show them all how to text and email and stuff. And I'm sure the Greens in coalition with National could share some mean mix tapes. Out with that The Feelers song about counting people (but only if the stand up, easier to see them whilst counting), in with Skeptics Affco (nah actually probably in with some bbq reggae or *gulp* some mellow indy pop).

    South Wellington • Since Feb 2008 • 300 posts Report Reply

  • Samuel Scott,

    Labour could be France, but the game started at 50-28

    you just improved my bad analogy ten fold!

    South Wellington • Since Feb 2008 • 300 posts Report Reply

  • merc,

    One bonus, if the Nats get in and the Greens perform really well over the next 3 years, I don't see National back in power for a very very long time. That's how it works here no?

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • Ben McNicoll, in reply to Sacha,

    or even just convince people to vote

    Well, getting out a voter is one point, but every mind you change is a vote less for the other side, plus a vote for your <edit rel='let's not reinforce entrenched gender pronouns'>candidate/party/political leaning</edit>, so counts twice in a way.

    Grey Lynn • Since May 2007 • 110 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    Craig you are a complex man…Green party vote as they are the stable coalition party that National need?

    I'm not 100% down with the policy agenda, but Russell Norman and Metiria Turei are doing better impersonations of competent grown-ups (and the idea of being an effective check and balance) than Doctor No and his ghost chips front bench.

    And, frankly, it's been disturbing watching people who should know a lot better swooning over Winston Peters like a pack of Twi-twits trapped in a lift with Taylor Lautner.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12034 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to Russell Brown,

    I’ll vote how I always vote :-)

    Yeah and I think interestingly that's probably the way it will be for most people.

    Somehow despite actually having policies to argue about and having some truly awful candidates to be horrified at (looks at ACT) - I think most folks will vote the way they've always voted.

    I think that says something important but I'm not sure what.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 3420 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to PaulC,

    the dubious economic justifications surrounding the sales

    Gordon Campbell's latest on that is recommended.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16771 posts Report Reply

  • Richard Aston, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    t is a charade where the citizens have been reduced to spectators in a horse race reported by a media that is completely decadent and morally dysfunctional, yet we call it “democracy”.

    +1 to Tom
    My feelings as well

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 503 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to hamishm,

    I think that the Greens should get everyone’s party vote.

    That would be amusing. Greens with 100% party vote and no electorates - we'd have something like 200 MPs with that.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 3420 posts Report Reply

  • webweaver,

    Here’s what I wrote in my Facebook status the other day:

    In Saturday’s election I’ll be voting Green for my party vote because they focus on taking care of our environment and all our people in a sustainable, socially responsible, community-based way. In short, they care about the things I care about.

    I’m voting for Grant Robertson because I think he’s done a great job for Wellington Central over the past 3 years.

    I’ll be voting to keep MMP because I believe that our representatives in Parliament should reflect the diversity of the people of New Zealand – and that the fairest and most effective way of governing is by consensus.

    Rich said:

    I would have voted Green, if they removed all the equivocation from this page and just said that they will not support National on confidence and supply during the next parliament and will consider any legislation against their policy and principles.

    This is how I see it. There is a possibility that National might not get enough seats to govern alone (please God make it so!).

    If Banks loses in Epsom (a strong possibility, looking at the gap between him and Goldsmith in the polls) then ACT is toast. If Charles Chauvel can roll Dunne in Oariu (running neck & neck in the polls) then UF is toast too. That leaves the Maori Party as National’s only buddy in Parliament.

    As Winston has already said he won’t work with either side (and assuming he can resist the baubles of office if they do get over the 5%), I can see some scenarios where National might actually need the Greens to at least abstain on C&F in order to get things passed.

    Initially that completely freaked me out – the thought that the Greens might actually help National. OMG. However, I now see it in a much more pragmatic light. My biggest concern (of many) about National is that they will try to get asset sales pushed through Parliament. The Greens have said that “no asset sales” is an absolutely bottom-line issue for them – one that they won’t budge on.

    This means that a strong Green vote, with as many Green MPs as possible, may be a powerful foot in the door that prevents National from having the numbers to get asset sales approved. Labour won’t be able to do anything to prevent it happening directly, because they’re the opposition – but a strong Green Party in a position where National have to bargain something away in order to get something else from them – just might.

    I trust the Greens not to bargain away any of the big things that really matter to me – opposing asset sales and opposing deep sea oil drilling for example – and they have already shown that they can work with National on things like home insulation without selling their collective soul to the devil, as it were.

    Although ideologically I guess my preference would be for the Greens to stick to making agreements with other left-wing parties, if it’s a question of agreeing not to disagree with some policies that you may not like much but which you can live with – in exchange for getting the really really really bad policy (asset sales) off the agenda, I think I can live with that.

    ETA: Of course in an ideal world I'd like to be looking forward to a left-leaning coalition winning the day tomorrow, but that ain't gonna happen, so having a strong Green party in place to mitigate a really really bad result (for me) is the best outcome I can hope for

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 329 posts Report Reply

  • Ben McNicoll,

    Can I interject at this point (probably not for the first time) and say how much I’d like to see an MMP option with Preferential Voting for electorates. Those two systems are not mutually exclusive.

    It would probably make tactical voting easier/more predictable, so would probably need the 5% threshold removed or lowered to compensate.

    But on the plus side, more of the community would be happy with their choice of electorate MP which must be good for engagement and local representation. And it might mean smaller party candidates actually get a shot at some electorate seats.

    Or would it lead to larger parties being guaranteed the electorate seats? Are there some downsides I’m missing?

    Grey Lynn • Since May 2007 • 110 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to webweaver,

    a strong Green vote, with as many Green MPs as possible, may be a powerful foot in the door that prevents National from having the numbers to get asset sales approved

    True. Where do people see the Maori Party standing on that now, as the other potential minority partner?

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16771 posts Report Reply

  • Ben McNicoll, in reply to Sacha,

    Where do people see the Maori Party standing on that now, as the other potential minority partner?

    It’s my belief that Maori Party would vote for asset sales if there were some preferential treatment for Iwi investors. I think they would sell that as a win for their constituency.

    And I’m pretty sure I recall Pita Sharples saying something similar, or at least hedging his bets in that direction, recently.

    Grey Lynn • Since May 2007 • 110 posts Report Reply

First ←Older Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 9 Newer→ Last

Post your response…

This topic is closed.