Crikey!

Clearly around 50% of the frikking population need someone to draw their attention to it!

Given the way the polls are being reported, I can't help but feel that this?

A 'key' feature of this time around.

I'm also far more engaged than most voters

That probably applies to most of us here. Makes it harder to understand how others are making decisions in the?

The paradox is that Goff – unlike Key – would seem to have got more right than he has got wrong during the four weeks on the hustings. Yet, this does not seem to have made?

Here's one theory...

__Almost half of New Zealand voters believe no political party truly represents their views.

Two days before election day, Fairfax Media-Research International's latest poll throws light on how people feel?

But like many (apparently) I am utterly disillusioned with the Labour MPs. There are some good ones, near the bottom?

Shop Assistant 1: "I just don't think the election affects me."
Shop Assistant 2: "Um, what about the minimum wage?"
Shop Assistant 1: "Oh yeah, but I don't think my vote will count."
Shop Assistant 2: "How about if there was a?

Labour will lose about five or six seats, which'll be picked up by the Greens.

Maori will lose one or two seats to Labour.

NZ First will get?

I guess that's what Labour?

Labour?s polling right now is down around the level of National's 2002 result. It?s entirely possible that their voters will look at the polls and say ?We?re doomed. Fuckit, I can?t be bothered.?

Except that they do have "Party Vote Labour" billboards up all over the place.

correct answer PV!?

The Herald says I got question 2 wrong...

Under which system do you vote for a party and an electorate MP?
You answered: SM & MMP
Answer: PV

Am I being an idiot, or is it the Herald that's?

How appropriate...

National standards.

It was a campaign slogan rushed into law under urgency shortly after the Key government took office. Avoiding select committee scrutiny was a feature, not a bug, in that process. Had it been?

You know what, Tom, I?m not going to slap you around for buying into that bullshit because __I was every bit as deep in the river denial the?

The Herald is constantly wrong.
Labour will win on Saturday by a large margin. The people of New Zealand will wake from their collective slumber and realise that johnkey and pals are a bunch of rip off merchants?

As it stands, I'm party voting Mana and electorate?

Well, I think some policies aren?t well-considered. The Broadcasting policy is a missed opportunity, and removing GST from fresh fruit and vegetables is like to achieve little beyond eroding the tax base. It?ll save my household way more than it saves a?

Interesting, thanks. Wonder why higher income earners would have lower rates?

NO LANDLINE TELEPHONE

Horizon Research earlier this year found 6.4% of New Zealanders 18+ do not have a landline telephone at home. This rises to 19.6% among 18 to 24 year-olds; 18.8% for those?

Yeah, some, but most of their billboards are for candidates and look like this (below).

Note that the second one has been "fixed".

Just did a thing on NatRad about this very issue (which seems to have genuinely skewed opinion polls in the US). Annoyingly, I didn't find the NZ landline data until after the programme:

ntn-20111123-1145-science_with_david_haywood-048.mp3

which was the whole plan all along – ideologically consistent rewarding of the already "successful"

I keep having to remind myself I'm not in Auckland Central any more (it was the boundary that moved, not?

so it was *you* who amended that billboard?

High schools can do their own thing until the pupil starts NCEA which is a form of standardisation

I'm a little worried that he doesn't have an especially developed television presentation yet, though.?

Which is fine for determining what you won't vote for.

But still leaves what you will vote for confused, well maybe not for you, but certainly for me.

* Yet another example of National using gut-feeling and what it knows to determine policy,?

National to get about 59 or 60 MPs. NZ First to get moderately close but miss out – 4.6% or something. ACT gone, Dunne in, Mana to get 2. Conservatives to miss out but I could see them getting in in the future if they stick?

onya

Bravo.

If the left stays home, we'll have a one-party state for three?

I saw you on TV last night and you didn't seem to care at all.
;)

I?

And the Arts, Culture and Heritage policy seemed to think us arty-farties are a pack of size queens who'd be too impressed by twelve pages to notice that there wasn't an actual hard commitment in the?

It's a fail for both. For Finlayson, because he has the grounding in the sector to do something out of the ordinary.

And for Labour because Arts, Culture?

umm, no, not quite. Thankfully. A change to the method of voting (which provides for two ticks) requires a 75% majority in the House.

What it may show, IF the result matches the polls, is that four weeks of good campaigning doesn't sway a public who really like?

I'd have thought this was a real winner, as it is clear there is a need to raise revenue and NZ is one of a handful of countries that doesn't have a CGT.

I talked to my?

I?ll be voting for him ? and the Greens will get my party vote (because, despite some of the flakier elements in?

My particular media loathing this time around is reserved for Stuff's John Hartevelt; he is so obviously a?

...unless it's for uneconomical white elephant motorway projects that are counterproductive to NZ's long-term economic development and expose our economy to future oil shocks. Those are fine to spend money on.

This is my dilemma.

I was planning to go Green, because ultimately I want the Greens to move far enough away from?

it is not just the media I hold to?

I was surprised that this didn't make the MSM :
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1111/S00500/ombudsman-points-to-nationals-agenda-for-more-asset-sales.htm
Is it a non-story or just too hard to fact-find on?

I think what they do is simply weight the opinion of?

I had a quick chat with him outside Pak N'Save the other day and that's?

If you're thinking that, don't you also have to think about how much of the Greens' soft support will also think about how much of Green?s soft support will think the same way,?

Craig, you have no idea how inordinately happy I felt when I read this. You rock!

I mentioned on Twitter?

I think Farrar tipped over into the simply maniacal about two weeks ago.

It could also be a very reliably indication that Peters has a blindingly obvious track record of being a divisive, toxic?

au contraire, I want to give you a big hug, although you'd likely find that equally offensive. It's confirmed every good thing I already believed about you,?

heh

+1

or even just convince people to vote

https://dl-web.dropbox.com/get/Public/IMG_6121.jpg?w=02601469

and one team has managed to convince the other (and the ref) that they're actually?

Well, getting out a voter is one point, but every mind you change is a vote less for the other side, plus a vote for your candidate/party/political leaning, so counts twice in a way.

I'm not 100% down with the policy agenda, but Russell Norman and Metiria Turei are doing better impersonations of competent grown-ups (and the idea of being an effective check and balance) than?

Yeah and I think interestingly that's probably the way it will be for most people.

Somehow despite actually having policies to argue about and having some truly awful candidates to be horrified at (looks at ACT) – I think most folks will vote?

Gordon Campbell's latest on that is recommended.

+1 to Tom
My feelings as well

That would be amusing. Greens with 100% party vote and no electorates – we'd have something like 200 MPs with that.

In Saturday?s election I?ll be voting Green for my party vote because they focus on taking care of our environment and all our people in a sustainable, socially responsible, community-based way. In short, they care about the things I?

It would probably make tactical voting easier/more predictable, so would probably need the 5% threshold?

True. Where do people see the Maori Party standing on that now, as the other potential minority partner?

It?s my belief that Maori Party would vote for asset sales if there were some preferential treatment for Iwi investors. I think they would sell that as a win for their constituency.

And?

Yup, on NatRad earlier in the week. He didn't confirm whether or not they'd support sales if consideration to iwi investors wasn't on the table.

which Key duly refused, to avoid upsetting the Orewa vote..

And I can't help but feel that asset sales – if they actually go ahead – will?

For now. Before the "actually, this is the only way to do what we need to do, so this why you should vote out MMP" talking point.

It works both ways for him.

In a few words: socialism for the rich.

*Polite applause*

Thanks to the abysmal standard of the refereeing, John Key ? the Richie McCaw of New Zealand politics ? was allowed to trap the ball and get away with murder. On (a) asset sales, (b) the Epsom tape?

I will be voting for Team Red. I like the Greens, and I?

Wonder if that's more or less likely with a significant Greens vote?

That National might drop below 50% and Peters might get returned to Parliament is testament to Steven Joyce?s hubris. He thought he was a master of the universe moving chess pieces around on a board ? but Peters isn?t a pawn. Loathsome though?

Despite the lowest turnout in decades, National gets enough votes to govern alone. This gives them a 'mandate', 'political capital' and 'full-on boners' and they'll proceed to fuck the country for the next three years. However, it'll be long-term fuckage, like breeding a new generation of criminals because?

OK, Steve, I do get that nothing less than Russell Norman taking a live shit on a photo of John Key is going to satisfy some people.?

And yes, the big parties hogging the seats is precisely reason I?

Again, my?

* __ Apart from thresholds and?

Hmm, a dilemma. If Labour is? I will not write ?decimated? because it means one tenth of mutinying legionnaires are crucified?

?um, if they suffer something bad tomorrow, there won?t be enough younger and newer MPs to rejuvenate?

We are? Well, then...

Greens
Kennedy Graham
MMP
STV

in that order.

I won't be doing either of those things. All we'll be doing is telling people that if they haven't voted yet we'd be happy to?

Party vote was probably the toughest choice but dead keen to get Julie Genter at #13 on the Greens' list into parliament.

And to be fair, I knew plenty of folks on the Nat side of the ledger who had the same attitude towards ACT ? a raiding party of?

I would have thought that with John Key's endorsement of SM, and the campaign for change, that SM will be the highest?

Here lies the problem. Your little protest could mean we get National again. And your argument? that they didn't do?

I did a happy, waving-hands-in-the-air dance too.

Not at all, if you want your vote to be a protest vote against National not Labour. I would vote for a stinking pile of poo if it would get rid of National, they are Cuthullull's little helpers.

Greens for party
Annette King (I live in Rongotai)
MMP
STV (2nd choice)

It'll be interesting to see the data behind the upsurge in early votes, and also if the Green-initiated campaign to engage eligible voters who aren't enrolled works out

So, a Green party?

Vote Labour, vote early and vote often...
Vote Labour Vote Labour Vote Labour Vote Labour Vote Labour Vote Labour Vote Labour Vote Labour and/or Greens.

You're either for us, or against us ...

That's not the way MMP works.

Correct. If a party does not represent me, then they do not earn, let alone own my vote.

A vote against Labour is as good as a vote?

Edit: Oh,?

The ?left? is not Labour?s bitch. The ?right? is not National?s bitch. The center don?t have to take big party cock from either end ? it can be as electorally slutty as?

I think also that a Norman/Turei Greens party is a much easier sell to be a partner in government for?

You gave me a fright. You mean it's ahead if the referendum is for change. Which at the moment seems unlikely. Keep MMP 54.4%. Change 35%, 10% Undecided.

It?

you are aware we're no longer using FPP, right.
more than two options.

Te Greens, in short.

I haven't paid enough attention to the Maori Party's pronouncements but it sounds like they may support sales in exchange for some iwi preference.

And from his track record I wouldnt trust Winnie?

Thank you Tussock. I wonder how much of an extra sympathy vote Sue gets because of that shafting QLDC gave to Wanaka Wastebusters.

Even more votes I suspect because?

I think you can do it with pride after the policy in that campaign. Much as I would like to see James Shaw, David Hay and Rick Leckinger become MPs, I don't think it matters too much ultimately how the votes?

This is the part I think is a mistake. There's no box on the ballot paper for "against Labour". Neither are there sections for "Left and "Right". Each party has its own values,?

Yes, quite right. There are some great, sensible and sincere people in the Labour Party. I'm heartened when their voices?

Russel Norman just said unequivocally that a vote for his party means opposing asset sales. Sensible stuff from a few senior Labour MPs before that. And I survived interminable?

The only hope for them is to break the cycle?

Sacha,did you have to endure the Feelers in the radio format?

Electorate vote: Burns. Chch central was very close last go around and there's no one better who has a shit show.

Referendum: keep MMP. My first voting experience was in Ilam in 1993. 'nuff said

Referendum?

But, golly, I despise his tendency for suppressing fundamental & relevant information, passing his selfish agenda under urgency, and crashing?

"Hi! It's John Key here just calling to remind you to vote on Satur ..."

John Key on automatic voice message. No *almost* about it. I?

I want some of what you lot had for lunch!

Voting tomorrow, after golf, for:
Greens
Sue Bradford?

Some of his supporters are rich, so act out of pure self interest. Although, plenty of Labour voters also vote from the wallet, rather than the head or the heart.

Green voters tend to be more mindful of society as?

Voting system? MMP all the way-)

Even without building another single metre of road, we have greater exposure to imported oil than any other developed?

Aren't you in one of the few tactical voting electorates? How are Bradford's numbers comparing with Sepuloni and Bennett?