Hard News: "Orderly transition" in #Egypt
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I'm not sure that everyone needs access to Facebook etc to get the benefit from the spontaneous organization they provide. So long as someone you know does, and they keep you informed...
But having removed it, it can definitely look like too late, once word of mouth on the street is doing the same job.
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i'm guessing "yaani" is Arabic for "yeah, nah".
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Even if just a sector of the insurgency had made significant use of social media, that would be newsworthy, sure, but it's what it says about our capacity for political analysis that we can't move on from that detail that concerns me. If you were to read the original coverage of the Russian revolution, I'm guessing that you wouldn't find every other article screaming "OMG! the Bolsheviks use phones!" and then attaching the capacity to bring about change to the phone itself, rather than the people who used it.
Oh, and
I'm not sure that everyone needs access to Facebook etc to get the benefit from the spontaneous organization they provide
There is nothing spontaneous about organization! It's not Facebook that organises people.
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recordari, in reply to
I’m guessing that you wouldn’t find every other article screaming “OMG! the Bolsheviks use phones!” and then attaching the capacity to bring about change to the phone itself, rather than the people who used it.
I concur. The revolution will not be televised. Collective will for democratic change transcends communication, and there is some evidence of it transcending religion and wealth in this instance as well.
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The point I took away from the blog post I linked to is that electronic communication other than mobile and landline voice calls is restricted to a small minority of well off people who wouldn’t normally mix with other parts of society. Yes, if a minority have good comms, and they’re evenly distributed in the population, I can see that they could co-ordinate mass movements, but if that minority is a small class mostly talking amongst themselves, then I guess that word on the street and old fashioned voice calls* are probably still the main means of organisation.
*although I personally would be anxious about secret police eavesdropping if I was ever involved in subversive activity and would probably be having face-to-face meetings in noisy venues.
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Ray Gilbert, in reply to
Meanwhile our election is going to be November 26th this year. John Key will be hoping the AB's do ok in the world cup.
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recordari, in reply to
Meanwhile our election is going to be November 26th this year. John Key will be hoping the AB’s do ok in the world cup.
Pony.
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There is nothing spontaneous about organization! It's not Facebook that organises people.
No, nor does a phone talk. But they help with that.
Whilst I agree, the technology doesn't make the revolution happen by itself, it can still be a big factor. It can also be a big factor in suppressing it. Armies aren't loaded up with technology with no reason, and smashing the enemy's technology is also a popular first strike for a reason. It's a massive driver of most kinds of human change. Not always for the good.
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recordari, in reply to
I wonder what the symbol of this revolution will be? The jingling of keys, or 1 million people setting there now defunct cell phone to vibrate.
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John Key will be hoping the AB's do ok in the world cup.
He's our secret weapon. He'll walk the sidelines during tight games and opposition teams will swoon when he smiles at them.
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Meanwhile, another Tory gets the jail.
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Simon Grigg, in reply to
The point I took away from the blog post I linked to is that electronic communication other than mobile and landline voice calls is restricted to a small minority of well off people who wouldn’t normally mix with other parts of society.
The figures I linked to above showed that at least (a year ago) 4m Egyptians were on Facebook, a figure that must have grown a fair amount since. Assuming that most of these are urban, that's a fairly healthly percentage.
There are smartphones and there are smartphones. The cheapest Chinese or Korean phones are much cheaper than the things you may be thinking of. I can buy an internet capable phone here in Bangkok for under $15 ( I own a T-Comm thingy which was 289฿ - NZ$12 - it has a browser and connects).
Also, one or two million people in the streets does not represent a huge segment of the population. I think it's reasonable to assume that the Facebook numbers are well represented in the people who have the time or inclination to do such a thing.
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giovanni tiso, in reply to
I think it's reasonable to assume that the Facebook numbers are well represented in the people who have the time or inclination to do such a thing.
On what grounds do you assume that?
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Simon Grigg, in reply to
On what grounds do you assume that?
Firstly these are urban dwellers, thus tend not to be the rural poor. Secondly, looking at the imagery they seem to be mostly younger. Thirdly, when you are earning $2 a day you simply don't have the luxury of the time.
I'm partially drawing from my experience in Indonesia which is not, as a nation, dissimilar. Those who would be most likely to join the ranks of something like this tend to be the younger, perhaps more literate and informed part of the population.
I'm thinking of the popular rising that led to the overthrow of Suharto in 1998 as a reasonable demographic parallel.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
Meanwhile, another Tory gets the jail.
The same guy who infamously tried to 'censor' the NZ Internet.
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Andre Alessi, in reply to
Meanwhile, another Tory gets the jail.
At first I didn't really see that story as being a particularly big deal-I thought it was just another rich white dude thinking he didn't have to treat the courts with respect, but the details of the case are genuinely scary.
A New Zealander designs what is basically the Predator drone 2.0, which has explicitly been flagged as as a possible dual-use threat (as in, it could be turned into a cruise missile), gets told to shut down his business instead of trying to sell it overseas, then claims to have destroyed all the plans but then gets busted trying to hock the plans overseas again. About the only thing missing from this story is "unnamed Pakistani sources" claiming to have been involved in buying the designs.
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Firstly these are urban dwellers, thus tend not to be the rural poor. Secondly, looking at the imagery they seem to be mostly younger. Thirdly, when you are earning $2 a day you simply don't have the luxury of the time.
There are also the urban poor, and those who are chronically un- or underemployed. Basing the assessment on presumed similarities with Indonesia also seems a bit thin. Not entirely implausible, but not enough to make factual statements either.
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
I read it as him having "designed" the craft (designing in the sense of having some models, not something that could be approved and manufactured).
He then went bust owing people money and tried to fraudulently remove the companies assets (the designs) from the country to frustrate the liquidation process.
Simple fraud - stealing money from people by denying them the legal recourse to assets they were entitled to.
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Simon Grigg, in reply to
There are also the urban poor, and those who are chronically un- or underemployed.
Sure, and I wasn't saying these people were not represented but it would be equally unwise to say that the other parts of the demographic were not present. Maybe the 4m+ linked to social media are only the wealthy and I'm wrong, but I doubt it. And I doubt the phone companies would be spending the huge bucks in a country like Egypt if that was the case. And they are as we know.
Basing the assessment on presumed similarities with Indonesia also seems a bit thin.
Many of the urban poor, if what I've been reading in recent days is correct, are, like Indonesia, the desperately rural poor who have migrated to the cities to find jobs that don't exist - as with many poorer nations, Indonesia being but one example. The growth of these mega-cities and the problems they encounter, is, in part caused by these huge inflows from the countryside. It's clearly a factor.
The similarities I've drawn have come from that, and from the fact that frustrations voiced seem to be almost identical to 1998. Both are also Islamic nations which means a little more than we can often understand in the west (the power of the prayer gatherings for example) and both seem to break down economically in much the same way.
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So, do we reckon Mubarak's "Allright, you win, I'll stay the boss till September" plan will fly?
The yanks are suggesting that's not really good, enough:
Obama said “it is not the role of any other country to determine Egypt's leaders. Only the Egyptian people can do that.” But he said he told Mubarak that an orderly political transition in Egypt “must be meaningful, it must be peaceful and it must begin now.”
so why'd Mubarak say wot he said?
I'm speculating that while the pressure from the yanks to go know is great, pressure from Jordan and Yemen to stage manage a less revolutionary handover looking is more urgent.
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giovanni tiso, in reply to
Many of the urban poor, if what I've been reading in recent days is correct, are, like Indonesia, the desperately rural poor who have migrated to the cities to find jobs that don't exist - as with many poorer nations, Indonesia being but one example. The growth of these mega-cities and the problems they encounter, is, in part caused by these huge inflows from the countryside.
I'm struggling to bridge this with "the Twitter generation", see? But I don't want to be the one who keeps harping on the thing that I complain is being harped on about. The commentary this week fortunately is focussing a bit more on social and historical root causes and political prospects, so let's celebrate that.
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Also, Scott Hamilton on the NZ military presence in Egypt is well worth a read.
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Sacha, in reply to
we can't move on from that detail
I disagree. Of course the communication/social technology is only a tool and it's far from the most important thing going on, but the issue of whether it's a significantly different tool than shoe leather and leaflets seems relevant (and topical given Gladwell's argument) and it warrants at least a smidgen of conversation. And I'd say this community's geekery ensures that we've done that.
I don't want to be the one who keeps harping on the thing that I complain is being harped on about.
Quite
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Dismal Soyanz, in reply to
pressure from Jordan and Yemen to stage manage a less revolutionary handover looking is more urgent
How do you suggest they would be able to pressure a lame duck president?
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How do you suggest they would be able to pressure a lame duck president?
I dunno. I'm just wondering if they might have mentioned that another regime rolling over so soon after Tunisia could create more pressure on their regimes, and whether such a mentioning would more or less heavily on the mind of the lame duck.
It would account for why he said what he said, when it looks like the US wanted something more, quick.
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