Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread

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  • Russell Brown,

    Local TV seems to be making a real effort this time – the time zones are in our favour.

    TV3 coverage

    And One News, with an extremely annoying Jack Tame video. I think his work, like that of all the NZ correspondents, has been pretty good, but he needed a producer to tell him to tone it down on that video.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 19116 posts Report Reply

  • Andrew Geddis,

    Checking in from Arizona, where the result of the Presidential vote is not in doubt - there's not quite enough Hispanic votes yet to turn the State into New Mexico ... but wait until 2016! - but the Senate race is still considered a bit of a toss up. Which is where the real suspense will be today, I suspect - will the Republicans keep/pick up enough seats to get parity (or even control) there?

    Probably not ... but it might help to keep things interesting, if Nate Silver's predictions are right. (Or, rather, if the more highly probably outcome that Nate Silver points to eventuates.)

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2007 • 155 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    A WaPo story on when we'll all know about Ohio.

    Polls there close at 7.30pm EST -- ie: 1.30pm our time.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 19116 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    For me, the real interest is going to be down-ticket. Has Todd 'Legitimate Rape' Aiken thrown a race that should never have been competitive in the first place? We shall see.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12073 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    And I'm presuming we'll all be able to watch The Daily Show's live coverage, from 5pm NZ time.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 19116 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart,

    I'm going to mosey along with a couple of friends to their local polling place to see what the lines are like and how they do things over here (from a respectful distance, obvs.). Should be interesting.

    Amherst, MA • Since Nov 2006 • 2093 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    For me, the real interest is going to be down-ticket. Has Todd ‘Legitimate Rape’ Aiken thrown a race that should never have been competitive in the first place? We shall see.

    I did see a comment yesterday declaring that the Republicans have bungled as many as five Senate races: Akin, Mourdock, can't recall the others ...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 19116 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    I did see a comment yesterday declaring that the Republicans have bungled as many as five Senate races: Akin, Mourdock, can't recall the others ...

    Scott Brown in Massachusetts -- who had the Tea Party having a collective orgasm after he picked up arch-liberal hate object Ted Kennedy's seat. Democrat Elizabeth Warren's opened up a small, but consistent, lead despite, shall we say, a rather unpleasant primary and an enthusiasm gap among her own party.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12073 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 19116 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Democrat Elizabeth Warren’s opened up a small, but consistent, lead despite, shall we say, a rather unpleasant primary and an enthusiasm gap among her own party.

    She's run a strong and consistent campaign for the last few months, did very well in the three debates they had, and Brown has not helped his own case.

    Amherst, MA • Since Nov 2006 • 2093 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Lucy Stewart,

    She’s run a strong and consistent campaign for the last few months, did very well in the three debates they had

    That she has -- we can all get terribly clever gaming the polls and coming up with convoluted conspiracy theories, but never misunderestimate the value of consistently getting the ground game basics right, I haven't looked at Brown's record closely enough to know whether he's an actual moderate, or one of the Romney variety, but trying to pin Warren as some tax-and-spend out-of-touch liberal elitists doesn't seem to be working.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12073 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to Russell Brown,

    And lots of lovely liberals are posting their voting pics at TPM.

    In theory, they should be a bit careful about what the state rules are about cameras at polling places.
    I mention this because prominent camera use was one of the tactics the Texas Tea Party based "True the Vote" was training in volunteers in which were illegal in many places.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 912 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    The New Yorker's Judith Thurman on the crazily difficult business of casting her vote.

    And this is New York -- it's not like there's some evil GOP governor trying to suppress the vote here. I cannot understand how the "World's Greatest Democracy" can be so bad at the basic provision of voting.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 19116 posts Report Reply

  • Phil Palmer,

    "I think [Jack Tame's] work, like that of all the NZ correspondents, has been pretty good"

    You're speaking out of professional courtesy, right? Presumably you don't watch any of it. I used to think Tim Wilson was some kind of Nazi that they had sent to the US to get rid of, but no, it seems they are all like that.

    Since Nov 2006 • 35 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to Russell Brown,

    The New Yorker's Judith Thurman on the crazily difficult business of casting her vote.

    I have tears in my eyes.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3012 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    Who won the Melbourne Cup?

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 4501 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Brislen,

    And the NY Times has a lovely graphic that suggests hopefully we don't even need to watch!

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 179 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Who won the Melbourne Cup?

    Horse-race punditry.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 19116 posts Report Reply

  • Ross Mason,

    Queues huh? Not enough polling people or machines??? Hmmm.....Conspiracy theory rant here: Does anyone know of any "throughput rates" done between those electronic voting machines in Dem Country and those is Rep Country??

    Upper Hutt • Since Jun 2007 • 1510 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    If you're puzzled by the New Black Panther panic showing up on your wires, Fox News is already going nuts on the story.

    Jerry Jackson, who had voter intimidation charges against him dropped after the 2008 election, is back at a Philadelphia polling station. I haven't seen a picture of a white voter, let alone an intimidated white voter, and all he seems to be doing is standing around and opening doors for old ladies (Jackson looks about 60 himself), but Fox viewers who aren't anywhere near that neighbourhood are declaring they won't be intimidated.

    Here's a Fox report. Note how they slip in 2008 footage to make it look scarier:

    More worryingly, former Navy SEALs and Marines have appointed themselves to go into these neighbourhoods and "protect" voters. The New Black Panthers are idiots, but dozens of white ex-Marine going into black neighbourhoods to "protect" people doesn't seem very helpful.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 19116 posts Report Reply

  • Hadyn Green, in reply to Paul Brislen,

    Nate Silver, you're on TV dude! Jeans and a ill-fitting sports coat? C'mon!

    And the NY Times has a lovely graphic

    Paul, I edited your comment so the link would work. :)

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2081 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Attachment

    Who won the Melbourne Cup?

    An aggregate analysis of results suggests it was most likely to be a horse with a name starting with T [edit, I should have captioned that graph as Melbourne Cup winners by initial]

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 912 posts Report Reply

  • Pete Sime,

    Rachel Maddow examines Obama's record. She concludes that it is a strong one and wonders why he didn't campaign on it.

    Dunedin • Since Apr 2008 • 144 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart, in reply to David Hood,

    In theory, they should be a bit careful about what the state rules are about cameras at polling places.

    The nice lady at our local polling place was quite happy to let me take a picture of the machine they use to scan the ballots.

    Amherst, MA • Since Nov 2006 • 2093 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to David Hood,

    What if there's three in there with a T first? I think you need to do second letter analysis too.

    ETA: You should probably also indicate how many of each initial has occurred in total amongst the non-winners. I bet T is very common, Z very uncommon.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8737 posts Report Reply

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