Hard News: The odds, and the simply odd
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It's interesting that other people seem to be spotting Helen Clark in fine fettle. They live by their research, those people, and I wonder if she's seen something that makes her think it's all on again.
I wonder if it's just that National have now laid the cards on the table and she's realised they're pretty similar to the hand she beat in 2005? (That analogy seems strained but meh...) It's got to be somewhat motivating to realise you've done it 3 times before.
And Craig I'd also like to see a robust discussion about $200million for allowances vs $200million for universities. Only because I'm quite unsure of the arguments either way...
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Random question for peoples.
When I got up this morning, DPF had a fairly toxic ranting post on kiwiblog talking about how disgusting and awful Labour's student allowance policy was. It now appears to be gone. Is it just me falling foul of Kiwiblog's weird very slow cache thing that seems to hide posts sometimes, or has he actually deleted it?
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But, hell, it doesn't matter how fiscally irresponsible and flat out unfair it is, we're all pissing our pants with glee as just how clever Labour is.
I think you're making some enormous assumptions about how much help most students get from their parents. There'll always be a few who don't need it, but there are a lot of students whose parents are assumed to be supporting them under the current system and aren't, for a variety of reasons. Why screw them over because it looks fairer?
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I saw Clark speak at Otago Uni in 2005 as well and she seemed very robotic and blandly efficient in giving her stump speech. It was lacklustre.
I have not been following 2008 closely. But you are right, in 2005 Labour were laboured. Cullen in particular seemed plodding and not on his usual sparkling form. Maybe they felt they had more to lose in that election.
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Any hard questions about what it's going to cost (really) and how it's going to all be paid for (really)? Don't be stupid.
I think how much it's going to cost is $210 million, and based on my preliminary analysis, that's a fairly accurate figure. How it's going to be paid for is out of government coffers. No further hard questions needed.
Btw- I meant "free again." I mean, it hasn't been free to anyone since the guys in parliament were finishing Uni! And it would be utterly unfeasible today.
There's nothing unfeasible about it, it's just a matter of priorities. Fees for attending all tertiary institutions could be eliminated for about a billion dollars, possibly slightly less. Or much more sensibly, brought down to an administration fee to discourage wasteful enrolling.
What I want to know is whether John Key will actually address the students in Dunedin in an address-type situation
Very unlikely. He'd get a bad reception - partially because a lot of the people involved in student politics are Labour Youth (a lot of them yesterday were running around holding helium-filled balloons - my first thought "hullo Clowns"), but partially because it's National and their policies aren't very student-friendly.
And if National know anything about running campaigns, they won't want the footage of their leader that night to be him getting booed and arguing with students a couple of days after Helen Clark got a good reception and offered something big for students.
If you're going to say something unpopular with people, you don't need to say it in front of them. Don Brash went to Orewa to play the race card, not South Auckland.
And here's another question nobody seems to be asking: Wouldn't there be more "social good" (as Russell puts it) if $250 million a year was being put into tertiary institutions to provide high quality courses, and recruit and retain quality staff? I don't see the point of universities bursting at the seams -- and the Keys and Englishes with student allowances in hands -- if the qualification they come out with are only fit for arse-wipe in the nearest long-drop.
Actually, the VC of Victoria put that very point this morning on Morning Report shortly after you posted.
From working in one of the "ivory towers", someone should find a way to cut the useless fat that Universities still have, after a couple of decades of bitching about being poor and then passing those costs onto students. Some parts of the system really are struggling, other parts spend thousands of dollars near the end of the year on stuff that they don't need that much, just so they get the same budget come next year.
Throwing $200 million at the universities wouldn't lead to better quality etc anyway, that sort of amount of money would have to lead to a reduction in fees.
If National was promising John and Bronwyn Key's kids student allowances there would be a most healthy scepticism. But, hell, it doesn't matter how fiscally irresponsible and flat out unfair it is, we're all pissing our pants with glee as just how clever Labour is.
I don't know how old John Key's kids are, but if they're old enough to be at university, what's unfair about them getting an allowance? If they were unemployed they'd get a dole, with no parental income test. Why should students be the only people tied to their parents until they are 25 financially?
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Why should students be the only people tied to their parents until they are 25 financially?
Yep, always struck me as downright ridiculous.
Morning report links:
(stream) http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/national/ntn/2008/10/14/labours_universal_student_allowance_policy
(MP3) http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/ntn/ntn-20081014-0907-Labours_Universal_Student_Allowance_Policy-048.mp3
(Ogg Vorbis) http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/ntn/ntn-20081014-0907-Labours_Universal_Student_Allowance_Policy.ogg -
From working in one of the "ivory towers", someone should find a way to cut the useless fat that Universities still have, after a couple of decades of bitching about being poor and then passing those costs onto students. Some parts of the system really are struggling, other parts spend thousands of dollars near the end of the year on stuff that they don't need that much, just so they get the same budget come next year.
Throwing $200 million at the universities wouldn't lead to better quality etc anyway, that sort of amount of money would have to lead to a reduction in fees.
I've worked in a few too, plus in the national quality body. Universities are under-funded by international comparisons and comparatively low wages may be a problem, however it's not absolutely clear. Lecturers I know tell me work/life balance is a major advantage in NZ compared with offshore.
I think Craig raising an interesting point, but I don't think there's any less dead weight in higher wages than there is student allowances. Student funding for higher education, not just unis, increased massively over the last two decades, but so too did public funding... lets say we now talk about corporate investment?
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Michael Cullen's stepchildren
Craig, it is a little known fact, but Michael Cullen actually has one child of his own, a son (presumably an adult now). I've no idea if he actually has any step-children.
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Why should students be the only people tied to their parents until they are 25 financially?
That's the one aspect that really didn't make a lot of sense to me, not least because the majority (or at least a sizeable proportion) would've finished their degree by the time they're 22 or 23, so they don't get any support at all. And then there's the fact that just because the parents are earning "x" amount, it doesn't necessarily mean the children will be subsidised in turn (although it could potentially make it easier).
Interesting points raised by Kyle and Paul above- I took those aspects for granted, I guess.
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WH,
Thanks for posting the Eye to Eye episode. That thing about Peters knowing when to grin really was a great observation by whoever originally made it.
My main go-to-media figure Krugman won the Nobel prize. I feel so vindicated.
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I think you're making some enormous assumptions about how much help most students get from their parents.
Lucy: Well, it might be nice if we actually had some healthily sceptical and informed analysis from the media. (If you want to go there, how many students are getting in hock to eat? Really?) I don't actually keep up with the minutae of tertiary funding policy (and much else besides), which is why I actually look for the media to be providing campaign coverage a little deeper than that provided by Entertainment Tonight or No Idea. But I guess I'd have better odds wishing for next week's magic Lotto numbers.
Would I rather not have paid my way through journalism school with a partial scholarship, a god awful job commercial cleaning and ZERO money from my parents when I'd rather have been down the pub getting loaded? Bet your pert buttocks, but I don't see why the Government owed me anything else.
Would it be nice if there was magic money tree in the basement of the Beehive, we weren't look at a tsunami of red ink, and whoever wins the election there weren't going to be some very hard and unpopular choices that will have to be made no matter how deep in denial everyone is? Yes-indeed-y. But I have to live in the world as it is, not how I'd like it to be. What a bloody shame the media-political complex has decided, instead, that denial is not a river in de'Egypt after all.
Some parts of the system really are struggling, other parts spend thousands of dollars near the end of the year on stuff that they don't need that much, just so they get the same budget come next year.
Kyle: You're preaching to the converted that it's ridiculous when being efficient, or the relative strength of the NZ dollar making your purchasing go further, means you're going to get your budget cuts. (Which strikes me as the definition of a perverse incentive.) But that's a whole other kettle of fish...
I think how much it's going to cost is $210 million, and based on my preliminary analysis, that's a fairly accurate figure. How it's going to be paid for is out of government coffers. No further hard questions needed.
Kyle: You'd think this would be one of those moments in human affairs where no press release is taken at face value, and further hard questions are always needed. Especially when the people doing the talking are telling you what you most want to hear.
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how many students are getting in hock to eat?
And how many of our less well off citizens would become students if they didn't face that prospect?
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And how many of our less well off citizens would become students if they didn't face that prospect?
Sacha: Here's another hard question you're never going to have any political party with the testicular (or ovarian) fortitude to ask -- could it just be possible that more means less and, just possibly, university shouldn't be the be all and end off of post-secondary education?
If you were of a slightly more cynical cast of mind that us, you may wonder if the ever increasing proportion of university graduates in our legislature is a particularly good argument for sending the kiddies to uni as opposed to making them become sparkies or plumbers at gun point.
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or become fashion designers, film-makers, musicians, etc..
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Well, it might be nice if we actually had some healthily sceptical and informed analysis from the media. (If you want to go there, how many students are getting in hock to eat? Really?)
Only if they also ask how many welfare beneficiaries are getting into hock to eat. Ah wait... none. Again, the questions that are asked about students, aren't asked about anyone else.
Kyle: You'd think this would be one of those moments in human affairs where no press release is taken at face value, and further hard questions are always needed.
I didn't take anything at face value. I went to the Ministry of Education web site and downloaded some reports and looked at them and did some calculations. An additional $210 million seems about right.
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An additional $210 million seems about right.
Not good enough, Kyle. I actually expect a little better from both our wannabe Prime Ministers and Ministers of Finance. And I sure expect a hell of a lot better than being told by Cullen what we just have wait until after the election for the costings of his stimulus package.
It's all about trust? Fuck off and earn mine, because I don't hire cowboys to wire my house or do the plumbing. I'm sure not going to vote for them.
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or become fashion designers, film-makers, musicians, etc..
I should point out, that there are top quality courses in Dunedin for all three of these things. The polytech has a good fashion design course, there's the a postgraduate diploma in natural history filmmaking at the university, working with the Natural History Unit, and there's a contemporary rock course which is pumping out talented young bands, headed by a Dr Graeme Downes.
The list of careers that you are unlikely to go to a tertiary institution to learn, grows shorter every year.
And the Labour government have already reversed the National govt's disasterous treatment of apprenticeships, which is addressing our shortage of various trades staff.
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And I sure expect a hell of a lot better than being told by Cullen what we just have wait until after the election for the costings of his stimulus package.
Actually, I'm not sure he was hopeful of your vote.
Anyway, I used to work doing research for a student union, including making these sorts of calculations. Acknolwedging that there are unknown variables (1 how many students will be studying in four years - economic downturns lead to unemployment which lead to higher enrolments, 2 how small the percentage of people will be that don't apply for an allowance), the $210 million figure is pretty good.
If National haven't attacked it yet, based on their own research, they're either 1. getting slow, or 2. noting that it's not a bad estimate.
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"Fuck off and earn mine, because I don't hire cowboys to wire my house or do the plumbing. I'm sure not going to vote for them."
A whole lotta CowBoys are voting for National, hell some might even stand. Yee Haa
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"Bet your pert buttocks, but I don't see why the Government owed me anything else. "
It's not anything more than they got, so get off your high horse, it's drowning in shit.
As Nationals policy is "Me Too!" What are you on about Craig?
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Actually, I'm not sure he was hopeful of your vote.
Obviously not, but I find it amusing that people who wouldn't accept this kind of b.s. from a tradesman ("I'll give you the estimate for the job after you've hired me"), but go into raptures when it's being fed to them by a politician. P.T. Barnum was (erroneously) credited with the saying "there's a sucker born every minute," but at least he never went into politics.
But never mind, one of the nice things about representative democracy is that it bears out another saying: "Be careful what you wish for, for you will get it -- and good."
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As Nationals policy is "Me Too!" What are you on about Craig?
Shep: What are you going on about? You might like to bugger off and listen to my latest Public Address Radio piece, and get the clue that I'm very far from impressed with National at the moment. Lots of big promises being made that I can't see them paying for.
When it comes to talking shit out of a horse's arse, right back at you.
Pardon me for having the fucking cheek to suggest that our political emperors are somewhat under dressed. -
Obviously not, but I find it amusing that people who wouldn't accept this kind of b.s. from a tradesman ("I'll give you the estimate for the job after you've hired me"), but go into raptures when it's being fed to them by a politician.
Sounds like every election, in pretty much every country.
Is there any country where political parties either voluntarily, or by law, have to submit their promises to some sort of independent assessment as to its cost?
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"but if he's in the passenger seat, who's driving?"
Oh the passenger
He rides and he rides
He looks through his window
What does he see?
He sees the bright and hollow sky
He sees the stars come out tonight
He sees the citys ripped backsides
He sees the winding ocean drive
And everything was made for you and me
All of it was made for you and me
cause it just belongs to you and me
So lets take a ride and see whats mineAnd he sings:
"blah blah blah blah blahblahblah blaah"
"blah blah blah blah blahblahblah blaah"(with many apologies to Iggy Pop)
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He sees the bright and hollow sky
Perfick !
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