Island Life by David Slack

Another parallel although I don't like it - but I bet John Howard is thinking it because he's a 'cricket tragic'- is Don Bradman's last innings in which he scored a duck. John 'I think I'm Bradman' Howard takes the long walk to the pavilion, robbed of a test average of 100 and a fourth term in office.

Aussie Prime Minister John
Thought he'd carefully pass the baton
But he forced work-choices
Each worker rejoices
As the Aussies just said "begone"

And Peter Costello has joined him on that long walk back to the pavilion. If Howard had of stepped down during his last term as he promised (__"I've changed my mind, and everyone agree's with me"__) the election results may have been different. Costello's failure to force the leadership issue when he should have (mid-term) will probably be a lesson to all politicians who aspire to leadership roles. If you want it you gotta go for it. Costello didn't and by waiting dutifully in the wings he's now got nothing.

Will anyone here move against Clark? I doubt it, and they'd probably be right not to, but Clark/Labour face the same problems Howard/the Liberals did. Sure, things are pretty good, but we're just not feeling you any more - maybe it's time for the other lot to have a go?

And yet I'm not rushing off to the TAB. Clark/Labour are proven masters at snatching victory from the jaws of election defeat.

Will anyone here move against Clark? I doubt it, and they'd probably be right not to, but Clark/Labour face the same problems Howard/the Liberals did. Sure, things are pretty good, but we're just not feeling you any more - maybe it's time for the other lot to have a go?

I'm not sure how much this applies in Australia, but in NZ I'd see a primary problem as there not being anyone waiting in the wings who you'd say "I could see them taking over from Clark soon". To some extent the leadership talent doesn't seem to be there, and I also think that Cullen is blocking the path as long as he sticks around.

My current feeling is that Clark will keep the job until she loses an election, and then she'll go and Labour will have to go through some serious rebuilding in opposition.

in NZ I'd see a primary problem as there not being anyone waiting in the wings who you'd say "I could see them taking over from Clark soon".

If you take out the word 'soon' I'd say your answer was Phil Goff. Trouble is he's followed the Peter Costello route inasmuch as he's 'playing nice', biding his time, not challenging the leader. And yet all that has happened is that he and his supporters (ie those on the right) have been shunted into a corner by the left wing of the party. And quite effectively. I imagine by the time there's any discussion of a leadership change (ie only after Clarke loses an election) Goff will find himself in the same untenable position as Costello has.

If you take out the word 'soon' I'd say your answer was Phil Goff. Trouble is he's followed the Peter Costello route inasmuch as he's 'playing nice', biding his time, not challenging the leader.

I can't say he does it for me (actually, I can't hear his name without thinking "F*** off Goff!", and I wasn't even a student back then) but it'll be interesting to see.

I always get the impression that parties are stuck between a rock and a hard place replacing longer term leaders who have won several elections in a row.

It seems the option is, as your party is fading, no longer fresh, and coming up to that 'change is good simply for change' period of electoral cycles, you roll the existing leader who has been PM for 7, 8, 10 years. But who would want to put their career on the line by taking over a party as it begins its nosedive before an election? What are the chances of pulling that up? And if you don't, have you had your dash and considered tainted?

Alternatively, you roll the leader before the decline starts. Well if they're at the peak of their popularity and the party is still going OK, who's going to roll their PM?

Seems to me that it always, almost inevitably leads towards "XXXX will lose this election while I am loyal and wait in the wings, resign, and I can come in and build it up against in opposition".

One thing that does sadden me is that we will probably never experience a PM being evicted from the House after losing their seat while we have the version of MMP we do. I kind of like that it can happen on the odd occasion, it puts the fear into them.

who would want to put their career on the line by taking over a party as it begins its nosedive before an election?

**er....**

Will anyone here move against Clark? I doubt it, and they'd probably be right not to, but Clark/Labour face the same problems Howard/the Liberals did. Sure, things are pretty good, but we're just not feeling you any more - maybe it's time for the other lot to have a go?

Being in government is__hard__ work, it's that simple. Even if you're generally doing ok, you start to tire.

As a basic comparision, let's imagine the gov't are a rugby team and they've been asked to play four games (terms) in four days. First day, they win, no worries. Second day, another solid win, but a couple of the team are starting to puff a bit. Third day, still a skillful team, but, well, it's starting to be a bit of a struggle and some of the forwards are a bit late to the break-down, but they scrape in with a last-minute drop-goal.

Now they've gotta face another game tomorrow: on paper, they're still a good team, but injuries and all that hard, physical work is just starting to wear them out.

In comparision, the opposition are nothing flash, but they're good, solid and re-juvenated.

Or maybe it's like doing four exams in two days; by the fourth exam you know you're a bright individual, but you're a bit knackered and just know the result isn't gonna be as good as the first one or two.

who would want to put their career on the line by taking over a party as it begins its nosedive before an election?

er....

Oh well indeed.

But, I meant "with a sane view on their future career as a possible PM for more than a lunar cycle". I dunno who Mike Moore got his career advice from that day, but I hope he didn't pay them.

And 5 honorary doctorates? Universities are starting to give these things away like Sanitarium gave away All Black cards in weetbix packets.

Heh heh, I was skeptical too Kyle ... but look at the wiki page. I'm now wondering if Mike Moore knew his political future in NZ was toast (Helen Clark was working diligently, and successfully, to position herself for just the right push at the right time) and adding 'PM' to his CV (nevermind the Time-in-Office, observe the Title!) would help his plan to propel himself onto the world stage.

Evidently he has written many books that have been translated into many languages, y'know ...