Legal Beagle by Graeme Edgeler

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Legal Beagle: Election '11: the special votes

80 Responses

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  • James Green,

    As a geek, I just revised and improved my Saint Lague calculator, and note that national have seat 121 at the moment, and that NZ First are closest to pinching this. It would take a modest swing in the specials of half a percent from National for this to occur. Luckily for Key & National, specials historically don't favour NZ First. The Greens are quite far back. They'd need an extra 3.5% or so, plus a half percent loss from National.

    (All these percentages are of special votes only, which would be a very small nudge of the overall percentages)

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 691 posts Report Reply

  • stephen walker, in reply to James Green,

    so in effect you are saying that the Greens need about 14% of the Special votes to get their 14th MP? how does that compare with their Special vote performance in 2008?

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 635 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Posts about specials and Sainte-Lague rankings at Te Standard - with detailed numbers - and Kiwipolitico.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Rachel Prosser,

    I think the bulk of the special votes may be people in my position rather than advance and out of electorate votes.

    Yes you're correct - the highest number of special votes within any electorate are likely to be for that electorate - for the unpublished roll, and late enrolments, plus take-home votes.

    But Christchurch Central's diaspora of residents temporarily resident elsewhere may mean that there are more special votes than normal coming there from elsewhere.

    Christchurch • Since Mar 2008 • 225 posts Report Reply

  • stephen walker, in reply to Sacha,

    thanks.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 635 posts Report Reply

  • tussock,

    Most fun with Sainte-Laguë is the odd rounding when you shift the total.

    124 MPs = 62 v 62.
    120 MPs = 61 v 59.
    116 MPs = 58 v 58.

    Bullshit, eh. That's why we need preferences on the party vote, stop the left-right rounding errors on these close ones, even though Conservative would push right in this case. 8]

    Since Nov 2006 • 488 posts Report Reply

  • James Green,

    It depends on how many special votes are valid, and how other things change relatively speaking. Maybe more useful to think that of the 220000 special votes, the Greens would expect to get a bit over 20000 of those, buy somewhere like 25000 might get them an MP. Not currently near a spreadsheet but that’s my sense of it. Whereas NZ First need maybe only 16000 not 15000 to get an extra. But it does depends who suffers for these losses to occur.

    I think the Green swing last time was less than expected. It was a pretty similar scenario IIRC.

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 691 posts Report Reply

  • stephen walker, in reply to James Green,

    thanks.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 635 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to James Green,

    of the 220000 special votes, the Greens would expect to get a bit over 20000 of those

    They have tended to get more than their overall general vote share, haven't they? Especially from overseas voters.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • James Green,

    I think the Greens may have done amazingly in the post but it was more muted in 2008. They got 8.5% in specials (I think) versus 6.6% on election night. It's a bit hard to find provisional counts for old elections. That was enough to get Kennedy Graham as an extra from election night.

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 691 posts Report Reply

  • DeepRed, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Yup - and it's also worth remembering that New Zealand does things like this because our electoral system is internationally respected and the results taken seriously. Getting the basics of a credible election result done right rather than done right now is important in ways far beyond the obvious.

    Too true. While not the fastest process, I'll have old-fashioned pen & paper voting over politically compromised or otherwise defective voting machines any day.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 4431 posts Report Reply

  • Gareth Ward,

    As I just said on Dim Post - if it all breaks as expected in your forecast, National add ONE seat and their current loose coalition pals loses 5 between them. Where they could govern just with ACT last time, that now leaves them short.

    It just doesn't feel like the huge victory it seems to be getting painted as? Or am I missing something? Incumbent Government adding a seat rather than losing them maybe?

    Auckland, NZ • Since Mar 2007 • 1722 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Gareth Ward,

    It just doesn't feel like the huge victory it seems to be getting painted as

    it's not. many media still haven't adjusted to MMP rather than FPP.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • stephen walker,

    2008:

    National + ACT + Dunne = 64/122

    2011 (if Greens take one off National with the Special votes):

    National + Banks + Dunne = 61/121

    majority reduced from six to one.
    the media duopoly’s headline writers seem to have had too much gin on the night.

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 635 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Sacha,

    Most have never understood it. Media tend to think in black and white (with honourable exceptions of course). MMP results are a thousand shades of grey.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2634 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to stephen walker,

    2008:
    National + ACT + Dunne = 64/122
    2011 (if Greens take one off National with the Special votes):
    National + Banks + Dunne = 61/121
    majority reduced from six to one.
    the media duopoly’s headline writers seem to have had too much gin on the night

    Sub-editors are useless at maths (well-known fact) with or without gin. They are good at English.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2634 posts Report Reply

  • Islander, in reply to Hebe,

    sub-editors are useless at maths (well-known fact) with or without gin. They are good at English.

    ur, really really?

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • Chris Waugh, in reply to Islander,

    sub-editors are useless at maths (well-known fact) with or without gin. They are good at English.

    ur, really really?

    Um, yeah... Cos I frequently find myself ranting at basic spelling and grammatical mistakes in the pages of the Herald and Stuff.

    And now to mark some essays.

    Beijing • Since Jan 2007 • 2190 posts Report Reply

  • Islander, in reply to Chris Waugh,

    And me to my other 3 dailies (“Press”, “Greymouth Evening Star” and the “ODT” (that latter not nearly so much…)

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Islander,

    Or should I say "they were good at English at school" ;-)

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2634 posts Report Reply

  • Islander, in reply to Hebe,

    Very probably!

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • Lilith __, in reply to Sacha,

    many media still haven’t adjusted to MMP rather than FPP

    With MMP and the rise of the Greens I think everyone has to lose the mindset that elections are a 2-horse race.

    Dunedin • Since Jul 2010 • 3494 posts Report Reply

  • Chris Waugh, in reply to Lilith __,

    I think everyone should have lost that mindset a long time ago.

    Beijing • Since Jan 2007 • 2190 posts Report Reply

  • Brent Jackson,

    I read that a recent poll (cannot find it now sorry) found that 40% of people choose their party vote based on who they would like to see as Prime Minister. It is people like these that haven't truly understood MMP (imho).

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 430 posts Report Reply

  • DeepRed, in reply to Brent Jackson,

    I read that a recent poll (cannot find it now sorry) found that 40% of people choose their party vote based on who they would like to see as Prime Minister. It is people like these that haven’t truly understood MMP (imho).

    Was it this one?

    You're probably also thinking of presidentialism or personality cultism. Or both.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 4431 posts Report Reply

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