You need a sub :-)

These "average families" are statistical constructs. When independent data is introduced, the number they arrive at is not a measurement of anything in the real world ? it's just a comparison of two different statistics. It is arbitrary, and can't be talked about as if it was real.

And would?

I preffer my own interpretation of meme as the transliteration of the maori mimi.

It works with added inflection.

Yeah, and wot poneke said.

Meh... Poneke makes some good points, but I think writing "Good news doesn?t sell" misses the point — I don't want to open my morning newspaper, or turn on Morning Report, and have my intelligence insulted by media Pollyannas either. Here's a really radical notion:?

Also the metric tonne is within 2% of the imperial ton – so there pretty much interchangeable for the purpose of discourse.

Hickey's defence was that there aren't income numbers more accurate that the HES, and that it was probably a reasonable estimate.

I'm not sure about this. The income growth estimate that comes out of the HES is very low – 3.2%pa. Average wage growth from the Quarterly Employment Survey was?

Here's a really radical notion: How about more people follow Keith's example, and assume we peasants can actually be trusted to think (and feel) for ourselves, without being manipulated by the statistical equivalent of Judy Bailey's tear ducts?

Sorry, still laughing. You are hardly one of the peasants Craig. There?

The upshot is that, before we start going on about food prices, GST and so on, let's keep our eye on the ball here: Housing cost is the biggest and has risen the fastest.So let's talk about interest rates, not bloody cheese.

How? Seems impossible.

There are 2 big factors?

Keith's main point is correct: on average, weekly household expenditure on mortgages was $81.40 in 03/04 (average rental expenditure was $58) – far below Hickey's assumed average mortgage of $225/week.

Those figures can't be right. $81/week on a mortgage must be... $60 – 70K mortgage or so at lower (03/04)?

Sorry, still laughing. You are hardly one of the peasants Craig.

I'm just another arsehole trying to get through the day with ten fingers and ten toes intact. Stating the bleeding obvious, can anyone made good judgements off bad or partial data? Don't think so.

Rich of Observationz: I thought the word "meme" was invented by ultra-pretentious American dud-prediction comic Wired anddisliked it accordingly.

You know who can settle this? Yeah, it's the Oxford English Dictionary. OED reprazent. This?

And would it be overly-cynical to say that we're going to get a lot more 'constructs' thrown at us as election year grinds on?

Statistical constructs aren't useless, they just need to be handled with care. There are only certain types of conclusions that you can draw out of certain?

How? Seems impossible.

The OCR has risen from 5.25% (March 2004) to 8.25% (March 2008). The OCR is set to meet an inflation target band, excessive inflation drives increases. The band is defined by government policy.

Reducing inflationary pressures by reducing government spending – i.e. running a surplus? 8-)

It's?

Both measures are averages Kyle, so you could say that the average household expenditure on shelter was rent+mortgage=$139/week. This might seem low but remember 37% of households live rent or mortgage free.

Well that makes it an incredibly useless statistic then.

The majority of people who don't pay rent, own?

Those figures can't be right.

The beauty of statistics means the figures might well be right, irrelevent, but right.

The average weekly household expenditure on a mortgage could be read as the cost of all mortgages divided by the total number of households, same with rents. That would include all?

Reducing inflationary pressures by reducing government spending – i.e. running a surplus? 8-)

Except that a "credit crunch" ala America is reproduceable here. 8-(

Inflation is partly driven by international factors (oil peaking – Chinese labour costs) and if sufficient these maintain inflation higher than 3% band. If so then?

Broken down by tenure of dwelling, households that own their property with mortgages (32%?

Kyle, I'm sorry but that's how the results in the household expenditure survey are reported

I'm not sure where you're getting your figures from. The HES for year ended 30 June 2004 is available here. The section on 'Housing Group' reads:

Housing remained the largest component of household spending, accounting?

So, if one person rented, one person had a mortgage and another person owned their house free-hold, then the average rent and the average mortgage would be much lower – but?

So, if one person rented, one person had a mortgage and another person owned their house free-hold, then the average rent and the average mortgage would be much lower – but it would be useful, in that it reflected the average expenditure on housing.

So I don't get then how?

Although in my defence I don't recall seeing the word in common use until Wired hit the newstands (around 25 years after Dawkins wrote his book), with it appearing twice in every article. I think it was mandated in their style guide,?

i.e. Because the average mortgage payments of the HES sample was only $81/week, clearly, they are not the same people as the ones which pay $247/week. Therefore, you shouldn't match?

Housing remained the largest component of household spending, accounting for 24 cents in every dollar spent. Average weekly expenditure on housing was $217 in 2003/04, up 19.1 percent from $182 in 2000/01.

Still not particularly useful, as?

i.e. Because the average Ferrari price of the HES* sample was only 50c, clearly, they are not the same people as the ones which pay $500k for a Ferrari. Therefore, you shouldn't match the income of everybody with **Ferrari?

Q: How many have a mortgage (and therefore repayments) below the average??

It's like a hammer – you really need to know what it does, when to use it, and when not?

It's like a hammer – you really need to know what it does, when to use it, and when not to.

Sometimes, you need a sonic screwdriver.

A paid-off house of median value ($450k) in Auckland represents $70k of pre-tax income that would need to be earned to pay that mortgage.

It seems to me that a lot more people?

Or that the indebted rich are worse off than the above mentioned family.

Do?

Averages are simple tools ... and can be useful in many situations.

but in many situations create distortions. Another recent example is (in my view) the way the Real Estate Institute is always quoting average sale prices etc., where the median would probably give a more realistic picture. However, I?

In 1999 Susan Blackmore published the Meme Machine, (so yes around 25 years after Dawkins coining of..) with foreword by mr. Dawkins. Actually it's a rather useful concept, I always thought. Susan Blackmore's interpretation of Memes is probably more helpful in understanding for example religion then Dawkins' own the?

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Mimesis

Said like mimi with 2 syllables (plus a third for sis).

I like saying it as 'mi-mi as opposed to 'meams' & have found enuf to do so and counter objection in any drunken discussion about Dawkins -?

The perverse limitations of these types of calculations hold a family on the East Coast or Northland living in shacks and caravans to be on a par with the mansion in Remuera, if it's paid off.

Dude, you're going to make me cry. These calculations do no such thing. It?

Sometimes, you need a sonic screwdriver.

Poo, laser — who'd have sonic?

"So let's talk about interest rates, not bloody cheese."

Knowing kids are hungry out there, well we're not on the same page are we?

Granted, the fact?

You just made me factcheck you.

oops. My anti real estate agent bias is showing through.

My apologies to the REINZ.

it's a bloody outrage what people are having to do to make ends meet in these difficult times.

a BLOODY OUTRAGE!!

Poo, laser — who'd have sonic?

Who can't master the isomorphic controls.

Keith when you're happy to write this:

"So let's talk about interest rates, not bloody cheese."

Knowing kids are hungry out there, well we're not on the same page are we?

My point there is very simple: If they can't afford cheese, it's not because the price of cheese increase?

it's because they're spending $80 more on housing.

let me preface this with "i'm no economist, but..."

keith's right. the groupthink has been "get the biggest mortgage you can afford" + "house prices can only go up".

too many families are struggling because they haven't budgeted for their main cost,?

but you have to remember that if interest rates move from 8% p.a. to 10% p.a., then the mortgagee is facing a 25% increase in debt servicing costs.

so, for a $300,000 mortgage, your weekly interest bill would move from $460 to $575. an extra $115?

Keith et al

Many thanks for the robust discussion on this by many with an expert interest in the HES and how it can be used.

Thanks for coming by Bernard, and for recognising that criticisms are made in the spirit of debate.

so, for a $300,000 mortgage, your weekly interest bill would move from $460 to $575. an extra $115 is not a huge sum, but it has to come from somewhere.

Man, I wish I could say 'an extra $115/week is not a huge sum'.

I'm in a race between paying?

if you're paying more than the absolute minimum on your loan you're doing yourself a disservice.

only been paying mine off for 38 months now.

and?

I call it A BLOCK

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Trade-Me-Property/Residential-Property/Houses-for-sale/auction-153205688.htm

Kyle — if your student loan is zero-interest (or even if it's just lower-interest than the mortgage!), then surely the choice is a no-brainer: pay down the mortgage before doing anything about the student loan.

Oh I'm not making voluntary payments. I make enough 'voluntary payments' in the form of?

if for some reason I found a couple of grand lying around, would be to clear it which would increase my take-home pay.

i've thought exactly the same thing.

or, if a future government were to bring in some sort of minimal interest rate.

On infill, I'm all infavour of it, done right. Five-Up seems a good plan but have a look at this. It's built so it got approval and someone 'designed' for someone else to 'live' in.

I call it A BLOCK

Holy crap. Is there time to buy a house while?

Holy crap. Is there time to buy a house while on a salvia trip?

Inadvisable.

For less than $270 000 in Linwood you could have, say, this.

That's some nice house for the money alright ...

Regarding the Swastika on the house in Auckland. I would be uncomfortable with it but I can see their point in having it.

Here in Christchurch Swastikas can be seen in the brick work?

Regarding the Swastika on the house in Auckland. I would be uncomfortable with it but I can see their point in having it.

I know a historian who had the same symbol (it's not a swastika, I believe the swastika is based on it) on the cover of a book?

For less than $270 000 in Linwood you could have, say, this.

That's some nice house for the money alright ...

I'm salivating at the wood panelling. Yum.

'fess up Emma – is that your house?

Geez, that would have been clever. Unfortunately, no it isn't. Once we get our son safely enrolled at the trendy-liberal special-character non-zoned high school, then maybe that can be our house.

apparently it was a navaho fertility symbol (or some such).

The simple point is that long distance rail and road freight have similar environmental impacts on a NTK basis on average, with both varying according to route. Road is higher overall because it carries all short haul freight, and?