Pass the crisps: UK Election watch

497 Responses

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  • Craig Ranapia,

    The New Statesman has a final poll of polls.

    Share of vote:

    Conservative 37%
    Labour 28%
    Lib Dems 28%

    Which they say would translate thus:

    Conservative 299 seats
    Labour 233 seats
    Lib Dems 86 seats.

    Perhaps the years under MMP have addled my faculties, but that seems completely crazy to me.

    Sure it does, Russell. So does the Electoral College in the US, come to that -- I'm glad Obama won, but his share of the electoral college was seriously disproportionate to his share of the popular vote. You work with what you've got, sadly.

    And I really do have to wonder about the methodology of translating popular vote shares into seats -- do they assume a uniform swing, weigh it in some way? Any insight there?

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12040 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell,

    To the intense frustration of Labour cabinet ministers, Clegg has limited his options by saying that if one party secures the largest share of the vote and most seats, they will have a mandate to try to form a government.

    I guess that's a strong indication Cameron's Conservative team will be batting first ;)

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 1579 posts Report Reply

  • recordari,

    Has anyone else been following Billy Bragg's activities? He posted this 11 hours ago.

    The Daily Mail's front page today - a huge cartoon of Brittania walking blindly over a cliff - shows how scared the ruling class are of a hung parliament. They claim it is because coalition govt will lead to indecision. The truth is that coalition will lead to consensus, as it has done in Scotland and Wales. And that's... what the Mail, the Sun, the Telegraph fear most of all - finding out that, as in Scotland and Wales, the consensus in the UK is to the left of New Labour. Vote for change, on our terms, not on theirs.

    He also links to this, which breaks down the top 100 seats. Recommending tactical voting.

    Would there be rules around this sort of electioneering in New Zealand? He's pledged his support for the LibDems, but some of his reasonings leave me a little bewildered.

    AUCKLAND • Since Dec 2009 • 2607 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    From The Sun:

    TV mogul Simon Cowell says tomorrow's General Election MUST bring change to Britain.

    Writing for The Sun, he signals that the country he deeply loves needs a new government to pull it out of crisis.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 18991 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    Sure it does, Russell. So does the Electoral College in the US, come to that -- I'm glad Obama won, but his share of the electoral college was seriously disproportionate to his share of the popular vote.

    Not to mention his share of the Presidency!

    I mean, shouldn't John McCain get 46% of it?

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3009 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    Oh, but we'll always have lThe Daily Mirror to even the moron scales:

    ITV chiefs are bracing themselves for a huge backlash after Britain's Got Talent judge Simon Cowell publicly backed the Tories.

    The multi-millionaire used the pages of a downmarket right-wing newspaper to come out for David Cameron.

    Cowell's decision provoked a storm of protest from BGT fans who blasted him for playing politics and backing a party who plan to slash and burn public services.

    They accused him of "selling out" the fans who make his shows, the X Factor and Britain's Got Talent, such a success

    "They" is "Abigail Kirk, 25, from Somerset" and "Patricia Finn, from Leeds". Priceless. And being being called "downmarket" by the Mirror is like having Nikki Watson call you a talentless exhibitionist who'd attend the opening of an envelope if there was a photographer and an open bar.

    Not to mention his share of the Presidency!

    I mean, shouldn't John McCain get 46% of it?

    Well, funny how the Electoral College wasn't so evil when the right guy won. :)

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12040 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Here's The Sun's front page, featuring Cowell.

    Charlie Brooker has just tweeted that it "somehow manages to be embarrassingly lame yet more offensive than bestial porn at the same time."

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 18991 posts Report Reply

  • recordari,

    Starting to look like 'Celebrity wheel of misfortune'. 'You own a paper of a TV channel? No? Then STFU!'

    AUCKLAND • Since Dec 2009 • 2607 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    Charlie Brooker has just tweeted that it "somehow manages to be embarrassingly lame yet more offensive than bestial porn at the same time."

    What?

    Starting to look like 'Celebrity wheel of misfortune'. 'You own a paper of a TV channel? No? Then STFU!'

    Well, to be entirely bipartisan, I'd prefer Ross Kemp stick to macho thug-porn docos.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12040 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    And I really do have to wonder about the methodology of translating popular vote shares into seats -- do they assume a uniform swing, weigh it in some way? Any insight there?

    I believe so, generally, yes.

    One thing that would be hilarious if we changed our electoral system to first-past-the-post (or preferential vote or supplmentary member of STV for that matter) would be seeing political journalists try to explain poll results in terms of seats in Parliament.

    They think MMP is complicated...

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3009 posts Report Reply

  • recordari,

    Well, he's brought his thug-thumping to Gordon Brown's assistance. Ross Kemp: Vote for Gordon Brown and save Britain.

    They include actors Richard Wilson, Prunella Scales, Liz Dawn, Roberta Taylor, Tony Robinson and comedian Bill Bailey.

    Prunella Scales? That should sort it. 'Basil, Basil!'

    Hang on, I see a conflict;

    Kemp is the latest celebrity to p ublicly back Labour. Others include Eddie Izzard, David Tennant and Star Treks Sir Patrick Stewart.

    And on Billy Bragg's feed;

    OK! Me and Mr Izzard out there against the BNP!

    United against the BNP, but in different camps? Fair enough, I suppose.

    But this just further confirms that the 'Party List' has another meaning altogether in UK politics. Now, who is Thom Yorke supporting?

    AUCKLAND • Since Dec 2009 • 2607 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    Cowell's decision provoked a storm of protest from BGT fans who blasted him for playing politics and backing a party who plan to slash and burn public services.

    They accused him of "selling out" the fans who make his shows, the X Factor and Britain's Got Talent, such a success

    Wait. People are protesting that a multiple-millionaire who runs shows where people get voted off in a quasi-darwinist survival of the most popular is a right-winger? FFS.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6207 posts Report Reply

  • John Fouhy,

    Well, funny how the Electoral College wasn't so evil when the right guy won. :)

    Interesting idea for the Electoral College: each state passes a law that says "Our EC votes will go to whichever candidate has the highest share of the popular vote, provided at least 50% of states (by EC votes) have passed a similar law".

    You pass that law and ... nothing happens. Until enough other states have passed the same law. Then suddenly, boom, the electoral college is irrelevant and it all comes down to the popular vote.

    [not sure where I heard this idea ... maybe it's already happening in some states?]

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 87 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    One thing that would be hilarious if we changed our electoral system to first-past-the-post (or preferential vote or supplmentary member of STV for that matter) would be seeing political journalists try to explain poll results in terms of seats in Parliament.

    That's interesting. MMP must be a great thing for polling companies. Now able to say "the numbers we give you actually might possibly relate to reality, rather than being meaningless and bearing little relationship to the election we're heading towards".

    Since Nov 2006 • 6207 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    Well, funny how the Electoral College wasn't so evil when the right guy won. :)

    I've never claimed the Electoral College was evil. Indeed, I've been known to speak in favour of it. Particularly in a federal system, there are other concerns than simple majority rules.

    The idea that California would be able to tell Wyoming, the District of Columbia, Vermont, North Dakota, Alaska, South Dakota, Delaware, Montana, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Kansas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Iowa who the President of the United States should be, doesn't seem quite right.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3009 posts Report Reply

  • recordari,

    Sorry, I omitted the punchline about all those Labour celebrity supporters.

    Party strategists believe their endorsement will show voters the election is about vital services.

    Yeah. Vital services for wealthy celebrities.

    AUCKLAND • Since Dec 2009 • 2607 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    You pass that law and ... nothing happens. Until enough other states have passed the same law. Then suddenly, boom, the electoral college is irrelevant and it all comes down to the popular vote.

    [not sure where I heard this idea ... maybe it's already happening in some states?]

    I wrote a post about it on Legal Beagle.

    It's called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, and has been agreed to by 5 states, representing 23% of the number of electoral college votes required to get a majority.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3009 posts Report Reply

  • BlairMacca,

    The Voter Power website is a great exapmle of why we should never go back to FPP. I checked out my brother in laws area http://www.voterpower.org.uk/tunbridge-wells
    Basically unless you are voting Tory there you are fucked

    Wellington • Since Apr 2007 • 201 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    Basically unless you are voting Tory there you are fucked

    And some would say, if you vote Tory you're fucked as well. :)

    Since Nov 2006 • 6207 posts Report Reply

  • BlairMacca,

    And some would say, if you vote Tory you're fucked as well. :)

    Well that goes without saying!

    Wellington • Since Apr 2007 • 201 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Oh, hang on -- that's not the Sun front page Charlie Brooker was tweeting about.

    This is.

    He's right. Worse than bestiality porn.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 18991 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    The idea that California would be able to tell Wyoming, the District of Columbia, Vermont, North Dakota, Alaska, South Dakota, Delaware, Montana, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Kansas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Iowa who the President of the United States should be, doesn't seem quite right.

    Doesn't seem to bad to me. What seems crazy is even having a President.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8598 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    Oh, hang on -- that's not the Sun front page Charlie Brooker was tweeting about.

    This is.

    Would you like variations with that.
    ;-)

    Sun paints Cameron as Obama for front page

    The wireless north ;-) • Since Dec 2006 • 4931 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Would you like variations with that.
    ;-)

    Thanks Steve. I literally laughed out loud.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 18991 posts Report Reply

  • BlairMacca,

    He's right. Worse than bestiality porn.

    The absolute peak of irony. A Murdoch owned paper copying Obama???

    Wellington • Since Apr 2007 • 201 posts Report Reply

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