I see the Otago University research ISNT called ...A selective presentation of an isolated phenomenon from second-hand sources with all inconvenient data removed, scientific illiteracy"
All though an" Inconvenient Truth" did fit that discription.
The adjustment to temperature records is a fact. Worldwide there is a lot of questioning about these adjustments, yet the process is shrouded in secrecy, definitely not put into the peer reviewed literature.
Well take the NZ records discussed, and please dont wave around red herrings about global conspiracy and illiteracy you need to provide concrete facts and sources yourself. Your opinion doesnt count any more than some wacky US Senator. And yes I used a large font , since for some strange reason the actual conclusions are too often ignored. ( yes other places in the globe can show warming, but lets know more about our own backyard)
Yes there reasons for "adjusting" previous records, Albert park Auckland is in the centre of a large metropolis, so an urban heat island effect could be possible, but Hokitika ?
Even the IPCC , which indicated a sea level rise of of 70mm since 1950 in NZ , seems to have used scientific illiteracy and not mentioned that this was similar to the sea level rise from 1900 to 1950
And no Cindy just using the blather from Real Climate such as "one tiny piece of the puzzle, and trying to use that to argue the big picture - it just doesn't work like that", doesnt cut it.
Especially since a tiny piece of Antartica is allways used to show, warming, loss of ice, collapse of ice shelfs etc when the other 90% is getting colder.
Forgot to mention that the "warming" from the historical climate records in Auckland seems to come from adjusting the previous temperature records ... downwards
Check out the graphs, where the raw is blue the adjusted is red.
Climate Science is the longer term analysis of weather data.
Interesting to find this 2004 paper in a first rank science journal from an Otago University School of Surveying
The original analysis of long-term sea level change in New Zealand is updated with a new and extended analysis.....
These new results indicate that relative sea levels in New Zealand have been rising at an average rate of 1.6 mm/yr over the last 100 years ....
There continues to be no evidence of any acceleration in relative sea levels over the record period.
Ill repeat the conclusions for the scaremongers
NO EVIDENCE OF ANY ACCELERATION IN SEA LEVELS ( for the last 100 years)
There is also a nifty NIWA site which allows you to display historical climate data for various locations in NZ
I see the residents of the Alaskan village of Kivalina want $400 million from some oil and coal companies due to their unstable geomorhology.
Just a quick check on google earth shows the village is on a snad bar between a river estuary and the sea. And as we know subject to coastal erosion AND settlement of alluvial sediments.
But IF the sea level is rising in that area that could be it too.
Dont count on the villagers getting any of the $400 mill.
Allready they are scouring last seasons data so they can upgade some tropical storms to hurricanes, just to make sure Karen that goes to hurricane strength for 12 hours gets counted, on that only on one sensor reading
And guess what the above average prediction is then met for the year
For those who asked for the reference
David Deming ,Journal of Scientific Exploration
Book review of State of Fear
...An example is provided by revisionist efforts of some researchers to extinguish the existence of a Medieval Warm Period. The politicization of science is a threat to the process of free inquiry necessary for human progress.
The full text is not online, I got the direct quote from elsewhere.
lets see what the Global Warmongers make of that
The ever busy Mann has turned his hand to north atlantic hurricanes but this time the trick cyclist has two closely related papers
Sabbatelli and Mann 2007
Evidence for a modest undercount bias in early historical Atlantic tropical cyclone counts
Mann and Sabbatelli 2007
The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence rates
As usual other peoples data are put through complex mathematical routines, not allways making the source available for checking( normal standards at some journals dont apply to Mann)
and various statistical rabbits are again produced but he ignores Wegmans recommendation to at least get a reputable statistician as co author and instead depends on the stats he learnt from a siesmologist.
The statistical model captures a substantial fraction R2 = 50% (i.e., half) of the total annual variance in TC counts
Just in case some missed that 50% is one half
I suppose he was sorely tempted to use the bristlecone pine chronologys to produce a hockey stick shape
as for the Hurricane predictions, they were a late in releasing their predictions this year, like the bettor who lays his wager when the horses are part way down the straight
but another view is Fewest Northern Hemisphere Hurricane Days since 1977. 3rd Lowest since 1958 (behind 1977 and 1973).
Russell says :...Pew is an excellent organisation with high standards, and I've learned to place trust in it. That's the point...
Oh really ?
Did you check out their credentials of the staff listed. Your meme seems to be if they are not scientists dont trust them
Well a few have first degrees in science but none are climate scientists, their main specialities are public policy and or economics
Senior Fellow for Domestic Policy at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change
She holds two Masters Degrees from Duke University with a focus on resource economics and policy and a BA from the University of Virginia with majors in Economics and Environmental Science.
THis is the best qualified scientist
Jay Gulledge is the Senior Scientist and Program Manager for Science and Impacts at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
Dr. Gulledge earned a PhD (1996) in biological sciences from the University of Alaska Fairbanks and M.S. (1991) and B.S. (1988) degrees in biology from the University of Texas at Arlington.
and NOT forgetting
Laura Fischer is the Administrative/Accounts Payable Assistant for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Ms. Fischer holds a Bachelor of Arts in Art History with a minor in Architecture from the University of Virginia
Sounds like Owen McShane would be right at home here but only 3 days ago you said this
Owen McShane is also listed as a "prominent scientist"
For fuck's sake... honestly...
Phillip, Ive done your research for you...
Nearly a decade later, more than a dozen studies using
alternative proxy data and reconstruction methods have,
moreover, independently reaffirmed earlier studies such as
MBH98, producing millennial or longer hemispheric temperature
reconstructions which agree with the those reconstructions
within estimated uncertainties.
J of Geophysical Research 2007
Oh and the authors!!
Michael E. Mann,1 Scott Rutherford,2 Eugene Wahl,3 and Caspar Ammann.
Its Mann and his crew some of which he was their PhD Supervisor.
This is how its done people, the conjuror and his assistants have new rabbits to pull out of the same hat
Kracklite, the Deeming report was in the Journal of Scientific Discovery 2005 as I pointed out.
I have quoted the DIRECT WRITTEN testimoney of Wegman.
Its says his statistical methods are incorrect and his conclusions cant be supported by his analysis.
And if you set a very high bar in requiring direct quotes with sources please play by your own rules
...Nor has it made any difference to the dozens of OTHER studies that have repeatedly arrived that the same result in the same decade since.
But you guys never do THAT do you
The interesting bit from the NY Times is ..
Today’s interpreters of the weather are what social scientists call availability entrepreneurs: the activists, journalists and publicity-savvy scientists who selectively monitor the globe looking for newsworthy evidence of a new form of sinfulness, burning fossil fuels.
as for the MWP
In 1995 David Deming, a geoscientist at the University of Oklahoma, published a study in Science that demonstrated the technique by generating a 150-year climate history for North America. Here, in his own words, is what happened next...
With the publication of the article in Science, I gained significant credibility in the community of scientists working on climate change. They thought I was one of them, someone who would pervert science in the service of social and political causes. So one of them let his guard down. A major person working in the area of climate change and global warming sent me an astonishing email that said “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.
Journal of Scientific Exploration 2005