Posts by Steve Curtis

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  • Hard News: The Daily Embarrassment,

    Russell says :...Pew is an excellent organisation with high standards, and I've learned to place trust in it. That's the point...

    Oh really ?

    Did you check out their credentials of the staff listed. Your meme seems to be if they are not scientists dont trust them

    http://www.pewclimate.org/about/staff

    Well a few have first degrees in science but none are climate scientists, their main specialities are public policy and or economics
    eg

    Heather Holsinger,
    Senior Fellow for Domestic Policy at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change
    She holds two Masters Degrees from Duke University with a focus on resource economics and policy and a BA from the University of Virginia with majors in Economics and Environmental Science.

    THis is the best qualified scientist

    Jay Gulledge is the Senior Scientist and Program Manager for Science and Impacts at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
    Dr. Gulledge earned a PhD (1996) in biological sciences from the University of Alaska Fairbanks and M.S. (1991) and B.S. (1988) degrees in biology from the University of Texas at Arlington.

    and NOT forgetting

    Laura Fischer is the Administrative/Accounts Payable Assistant for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change
    Ms. Fischer holds a Bachelor of Arts in Art History with a minor in Architecture from the University of Virginia

    Sounds like Owen McShane would be right at home here but only 3 days ago you said this

    Owen McShane is also listed as a "prominent scientist"

    For fuck's sake... honestly...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Daily Embarrassment,

    Phillip, Ive done your research for you...

    Nearly a decade later, more than a dozen studies using
    alternative proxy data and reconstruction methods have,
    moreover, independently reaffirmed earlier studies such as
    MBH98, producing millennial or longer hemispheric temperature
    reconstructions which agree with the those reconstructions
    within estimated uncertainties.
    J of Geophysical Research 2007
    http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared/articles/MRWA-JGR07.pdf

    Oh and the authors!!
    Michael E. Mann,1 Scott Rutherford,2 Eugene Wahl,3 and Caspar Ammann.

    Its Mann and his crew some of which he was their PhD Supervisor.

    This is how its done people, the conjuror and his assistants have new rabbits to pull out of the same hat

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Daily Embarrassment,

    Kracklite, the Deeming report was in the Journal of Scientific Discovery 2005 as I pointed out.

    I have quoted the DIRECT WRITTEN testimoney of Wegman.
    Its says his statistical methods are incorrect and his conclusions cant be supported by his analysis.

    And if you set a very high bar in requiring direct quotes with sources please play by your own rules
    ...Nor has it made any difference to the dozens of OTHER studies that have repeatedly arrived that the same result in the same decade since.
    But you guys never do THAT do you

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Daily Embarrassment,

    The interesting bit from the NY Times is ..
    Today’s interpreters of the weather are what social scientists call availability entrepreneurs: the activists, journalists and publicity-savvy scientists who selectively monitor the globe looking for newsworthy evidence of a new form of sinfulness, burning fossil fuels.

    as for the MWP
    In 1995 David Deming, a geoscientist at the University of Oklahoma, published a study in Science that demonstrated the technique by generating a 150-year climate history for North America. Here, in his own words, is what happened next...
    With the publication of the article in Science, I gained significant credibility in the community of scientists working on climate change. They thought I was one of them, someone who would pervert science in the service of social and political causes. So one of them let his guard down. A major person working in the area of climate change and global warming sent me an astonishing email that said “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.

    Journal of Scientific Exploration 2005

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Daily Embarrassment,

    Philip wants it spelt out bell, book and candle.
    so lets go to the testimony of professor Wegman and his commmittee of the National Academy of Sciences(NAS)

    http://energycommerce.house.gov/reparchives/108/Hearings/07192006hearing1987/Wegman.pdf

    Most of the proxy series show little structure, but the last two show the characteristic ‘hockey stick’ shape. The principal component-likemethodology in MBH 98/99 preferentially emphasizes these shapes
    as we shall see....     page 3


    ...It is not clear that Mann and associates realized the error in their
    methodology at the time of publication. Our re-creation supports the
    critique of the MBH98 methods.
    In general, we found the writing in MBH98 and MBH99 to be
    somewhat obscure and incomplete and the criticisms by
    MM03/05a/05b to be valid. The reasons for setting 1902-1995 as the
    calibration period presented in the narrative of MBH98 sounds
    plausible, and the error may be easily overlooked by someone not trained in statistical methodology. We note that there is no evidence
    that Dr. Mann or any of the other authors in paleoclimate studies
    have had significant interactions with mainstream statisticians....__page 6 & 7

    ..The MBH98/99 work has been sufficiently politicized that this
    community can hardly reassess their public positions without losing
    credibility. Overall, our committee believes that the MBH99
    assessment that the decade of the 1990s was the likely the hottestdecade of the millennium and that 1998 was likely the hottest year of the millennium cannot be supported by their analysis....__page 8
    This refutes the conclusions of his paper


    And the first of the NAS panel recommendations..
    It is especially the case that authors of policy-related documents like the IPCC report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, should not be the same people as those that constructed the academic papers.

    This was the written testimoney of Wegman to the Committee, his oral answers to questions from the chairman are here
    http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/StupakResponse.pdf

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Daily Embarrassment,

    As for Complaining to the Press Council about a misleading article well the infamous Professor Michael Mann, of the discredited hockey stick fame did so back in 2004

    .. Dr de Freitas’s change of viewpoint from being a scientist warning about global warming in Listener articles published in the 1980s to his present stance where he describes himself as “a global warming agnostic, not a sceptic.” This feature canvassed his views as he gave comparative examples of temperature studies which supported his conclusion that “global temperature has not risen appreciably in the last 20 years.”. The feature also quoted graphs produced by Professor Mann in the IPCC’s latest report in 2001 which showed by contrast a “sharp kick-up [in Northern Hemisphere temperatures] in the 20th century.” ..

    The online PC decision , which didnt uphold the complaint, is here
    http://www.presscouncil.org.nz/display_ruling.asp?casenumber=962

    The original herald articles are here
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=3516830
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=3516831

    The passage of time has shown Mann to have published rubbish, I think the statistics he used was assesed by experts as being "graduate student level" and Mann used his influential position on the IPCC at the time to get his hockey stick into prominence .

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Daily Embarrassment,

    Looking back at previous New years honours
    http://www.dpmc.govt.nz/honours/lists/index.asp checking out the last one done by Jenny Shipley( in those days they actually got the moniker Dame/Sir for the top honours) we see
    Selwyn John CUSHING, C.M.G., of Hastings. For services to business, sport and the arts.

    This has political donor all written over it ( the CMG would suffice for his "contributions" to the areas listed)

    This was an interesting one from that year
    Dr Brian Finbar Myram EDWARDS, of Auckland. For services to broadcasting and journalism. (CNZM)

    Another couple of national political donors from 1998/97 who got knighthoods
    Rajeshwar (Roger) Sarup BHATNAGAR, of Auckland. For services to business and the community.
    Robert Arthur OWENS, C.B.E., of Auckland. For services to business and the community.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Daily Embarrassment,

    I’m not dismissing these scientists because they aren’t climatologist's under a narrow definition.
    Desmogblog listed them as PhDs in Climatology from Canadian universities. If they cant get that right what exactly is the point they are making ,that Ball is a fraud?
    I find all this credential bashing pointless.
    There should be far more disagreements then there are, and the scientific tradition is to encourage debate not shut it down.

    Just picking a article from my desk, shows that the first comprehensive argument for continental drift was from Alfred Wegeners 1915 book The Origins of Continents and Oceans. but it notes that many specialists made nasty comments about his scientific method.
    Continental drift evolved into the more accurate term plate tectonics
    Wegener was kicked around because he wasn’t a trained geologist much like Ball and others seem to have their credentials attacked rather than the validity of their views.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Daily Embarrassment,

    Talking of stupid statements, you should REALLY give the Tim Ball credentials battle a rest, because the facts are not on your side.

    First, climatology is scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time.

    And the topic of Tims PhD thesis:
    "Climatic change in central Canada : a preliminary analysis of weather information from the Hudson's Bay Company Forts at York Factory and Churchill Factory, 1714-1850"
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_F._Ball

    So we have established that Ball did research ¨"Climatology" for his PhD.

    So lest look at the others Desmogblog lists as other climatology PhD in Canada
    http://people.uleth.ca/~dan.johnson/first_phds_in_climatology_in_canada.htm#top

    They list 21 names.
    So lets look at their credentials for PhDs in "Climatology in Canada"

    Leonard A Barrie
    1975 Ph.D. Johann Wolfgang v. Goethe University, Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, Frankfurt Atmospheric Science

    Neither a Canadian university nor Climatology ( atmospheric science isn't the same thing)
    George J Boer
    Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1970. Department of Meteorology
    neither Canadian university nor climatology again

    Ian Burton
    no details on his PhD topic , but has worked as a meterologist

    James P Bruce
    No details on his PhD topic but mentions his major work on climate and water resources

    Stephen Calvert
    Ph.D., California - Scripps Institution of Oceanography
    Not a canadian university and oceanography ( research interests marine sediments)

    Garry Clarke
    Ph.D. (1967), University of Toronto
    Wow , a first from a Canadian university but hang on he's now a Professor of Glaciology at Vancouver. So not a climatologist

    R allyn Clarke
    PhD in Physics (Oceanography) (1970), University of British Columbia
    His research focuses on the circulation of the high latitude North Atlantic and its role in the global climate system.

    Roger Daley
    McGill University (Montreal), PhD) in meteorology

    Jacques Derome
    Ph.D. degree at the University of Michigan.On the maintenance of the axisymmetric part of the flow in the atmosphere,
    Atmosphere physics again but not Climatology and another from a US university

    Keith Donald Hage
    Ph.D. Univ. of Chicago 1957, topic not listed but research in Meteorology and atmospheric physics

    F Kenneth Hare
    ...He joined McGill University as a geography professor, meanwhile earning his PhD as an arctic climatologist...

    Wow thats a surprise a PhD from a Canadian university in climatology

    I wont go on but the rest are similar in that almost none are Climatologist's as scientifically defined and Hare is the only fit.!

    So we can conclude that Tim Ball WAS one of the first Climatology PhD's from a Canadian university

    What is surprising is that the list includes meteorologists which is short term weather systems
    But sticking to the facts seems to be a problem with those who attack people from a climatology background who don’t follow the conventional wisdom on climate change.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Bad Skillz,

    Regarding the deaths coming out of Iraq, with different numbers from the Pentagon and other sources.
    Apparently the US counts a bullet through the front of the head as "criminal" and not counted as a "sectarian" killing. That requires a bullet through the back of the head.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/05/AR2007090502466.html?hpid=topnews
    tip :Dailykos

    In light of the Sopranos final coming up this week on TV1, it poses an interesting dilemma

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 170 posts Report Reply

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