Posts by Lucy Telfar Barnard
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I just looked him up. He doesn't even look old enough to vote, but he gets handed a safe seat on his first outing? Oh well, guess noone can accuse National of not planning for the next generation.
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David, that's really helpful for what I wanted to do next: compare turnout to weather on the day!
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Michael Meyers,
Election web site tells me here that there were 2405652 votes including specials yet to be counted. Your population estime for 2014 was 3378138. That’s 71.2%.
Cool, thanks Mike. I was thinking that was a big drop in turnout, and not only forgot I wasn’t yet comparing like with like, but also, when I’d earlier been thinking about it, assumed the specials would be fewer than that.
So maybe advance voting did make a difference to turnout? I’d hoped it would.
My file's at home, but I'll have another go at it later.
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Michael Meyers,
People are complaining that a smaller percentage of the electorate voted for National yet apparently the voter turnout went up.
The turnout didn't go up, it went down. How much depends on how you count it, but as a proportion of all possible eligible voters, the turnout dropped from 68% to 62%.
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to BenWilson,
Oh, and pretty please! This is good stuff…but pie charts are really quite poor at conveying the desired information. Their usefulness probably ends in primary school when teaching simple fractions.
Generally, I agree. Pie charts can have their place though – the main thing it’s good for in this case is the comparative size of the non-voters. But for other differences between the two years, I agree entirely: see above.
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And the 2014 voter distribution:
http://imgur.com/BKvIGZU -
OK, with updated base population figures, here’s the 2011 voter distribution: http://imgur.com/Jr06oVW
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Katharine Moody,
Winston Peters has said, very loudly and very clearly, that he can't think of any job he'd like less than being Speaker. I don't know why people keep suggesting it.
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OK, I've extrapolated a better estimates of the 2011 potential voter population: 3,326,842. Subtract prisoners, add overseas voters, is 3,378,138.
Of course, the higher estimated base population figures for make the non-voter percentages even more shocking: 32.4% in 2011, but a massive 37.9% in 2014.
If anyone can tell me how to upload an image, I can bake some pies...
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to BenWilson,
Awesome, thanks Ben. I’ll see if I can do better on the 2011 estimate as well, working from their 2011 base estimates
