Posts by Jason Kemp
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not bad for a nation founded as a slave owning republic
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Even Thomas Friedman has noted that a vote for the Repulicans this time would have been rewarding incompetence. He goes on to make quite a few other claims in this opinion piece from the NY Times.
‘In this election, the American public rejected these narrow notions of the common good,” argued Sandel. “Most people now accept that unfettered markets don’t serve the public good.
Markets generate abundance, but they can also breed excessive insecurity and risk. Even before the financial meltdown, we’ve seen a massive shift of risk from corporations to the individual.
Obama will have to reinvent government as an instrument of the common good — to regulate markets, to protect citizens against the risks of unemployment and ill health, to invest in energy independence.”
From Friedman - ny Times
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Its a real pity the NZ election isn't this exciting?
Anyone read the 100 day action plan at NZX blog or the Nat 100 day plan?
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Why is Missouri still with MCain? Seems against the odds. I have dashed of an email to an expat Kiwi there to see if they can make any sense but just might be the low numbers reporting so far.
Only 1 patch of blue there and right next to Illinois?
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The 8 Tribes viewpoint strikes me as a more useful way of predicting voter behaviour than the old right /left, church race or school ties indicators that have been used in the past.
For short: rich hippies.
as short hand for Grey Lynn is like a venn diagram for one small corner. It does the idea a disservice.
There were two authors. Caldwell was the other one.
It was written in late 06 / early '07. The Ponsonby Tribe - the 9th one will be the one likely to make itself felt in urban city seats including AK Central.Besides that Tizard appears to have made no effort to connect with her electorate and she has polarized a selection of former Labour voters against herself.
I'm in the Mt Albert electorate and I've met the National candidate there in a local park talking to parents ( and as it is my local I'd say many Grey Lynners with children tribe) and not a pony tail in sight.
He seemed genuine if naiive about the realpolitick and some are picking he will do well.
He will get some personal vote / Tizard will not.
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"Perhaps this time more PIs will actually be led elsewhere by faith, but I'll believe it when it happens."
I agree - blanket voting by PI is unlikely. Sheer legwork and effort will help but that is not the same thing.
Politicians will always appeal to vlaue based affiliations plus others like race or culture.
I recently revisited the 8 Tribes concept and the PI community belongs to all of those different "tribes" just the same way as general population.
You might argue that PI groups in South Auckland are more likely to fit a particular outlook and share certain core values.
Jill Caldwell dropped by and commented on some of this.
"The Otara tribe certainly wasn’t there to contain all the brown people of New Zealand, as some Grey Lynners seemed to imagine.
It was just for the people who’d recently arrived from the third world. New Zealand’s ethnic minorities - Maori, Pacific and Asian people are distributed across all the 8 tribes, just as its Caucasian majority is. As I thought to myself the other day when I saw Oscar Kightley coming out of the Wholefoods store in Grey Lynn. Well actually it was the shop next door.
In a fabulous process of cultural metamorphosis, as different cultures become more prominent in a social tribe, the tribe’s values change to accommodate them."
elections 8 tribes style comment
I also saw a number of 300,000 Asian voters pop up on The Global Indian. Seems like there will be extra votes from Korean and Sikh groups this time and probably some of those voters will cross party lines to make a point.
Apparently there are at least 5 high profile Asian candidates some of who will get in on listwith a vote to either National or Labour.
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Not sure why people think that Christians all vote the same way or even share the same views on many topics.
Perhaps in the US where there are lots of dodgy political media channels it is easier to see but not here.
There are always attempts to focus around issues like the anti -smacking law but by no means universal agreement.
Peters & Field are hardly exemplars of behaviour and if they did score highly in value your vote then it clearly has zero validity.
Re: Farrars comments. By repeating them don't you just amplify the noise. Perhaps having a snip might save people the bother of visiting his blog but I'm wondering if its more of a minus.
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I was very pleased to see the poll work on wikiPedia by Mark Payne and others. It is great work.
I noted the use of the Loess factor which is all very fine from a statistical POV.
What I really want to know is what we are going the call "screw the polls" factor. There are plenty of people who will say anything to get off the phone including the opposite of what they intend.
I think the public is jaded with polling and treat it as some kind of game show with no prizes for them so the quality of their answers is always low.
I've also noted in conversations with some long term National Party supporters that they have decided to vote Green as they can't tell the difference between two centre leaning parties.
Like everyone they suspect the gloves will come off National soon enough but Labour is more predictable and while they won't vote directly for Labour they might vote Green.
I've also made a few notes of my own regarding the 8 Tribes concept which I think crosses party lines as it aims to deal with core values.
If my memory is correct we have already had 3 coalition governments where the real shape has not emerged till after the election.
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OOps I posted the comment just above here in the worng post
should have been responding to this page -
Thanks Russell,
I'm glad its not just me noticing the deficit of vision in John Key's eyes.
I noted this morning...about Mr Key
The one who used to be a successful derivatives trader at Merrill Lynch and SHOULD know more about this type of crisis appears to be alternately smug and clueless.
Could it be that the very paradigm Mr Key was clearly successful in - might be his Achilles heel in this election campaign? Being good at abstract structured finance might not be such a good qualification for leading the real economy?
We need Key to wake up and smell the new paradigm.