Posts by Rich of Observationz

Last ←Newer Page 1 2 3 4 5 Older→ First

  • Speaker: Confessions of an Uber Driver…,

    I don't think the locus of their offices has any bearing on the jurisdiction of the Employment Tribunal. If the work's being done by an NZ resident in NZ, then NZ law applies.

    IANAL, but you knew that.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip,

    The problem isn't that Trump snorts too much coke and plays russian roulette with The Button. It's more subtle than that:

    - Trump gives his bestie, Putin, the idea that invading Ukraine/Estonia/Poland would not spoil their friendship
    - Putin goes rolling in, hoping to bolster his position as the new Ivan The Quite Bad
    - However, the general view in NATO is that invading Poland *is* going too far, apart from anything else there's a treaty of mutual assistance, so NATO forces intervene and start battling Russians
    - As in Afghanistan (etc) Russian troops and tech don't perform as advertised and NATO rolls over them into the motherland
    - Rather than lose St Petersburg, Putin tries a few nukes
    - Taking out a French division
    - The French fire everything they have and take out Moscow
    - The Russians blow up the world

    This is how wars happen. Look at Kuwait - the US gave Saddam the impression that his invasion would meet with no more than protestation, he invaded on that basis, and then the US (encouraged by Maggie and the Saudis) felt they had to retaliate.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    teach people, in something like a civics course in school,

    Yeah, but what about the guys at the back watching pr0n under the desk?

    Maybe introduce votes at 16, but make it conditional on passing a short answer and essay paper covering history, constitution and critical thinking.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip,

    Don’t ‘diagnose’ Donald Trump, it’s not helpful.

    Obviously. Maybe if there'd been more memes calling Trump a fat ugly nutter, then Bubba T Flubba down in Shitsville, FL wouldn't have voted for him. But you know, Trump won't hurt the rich people or indeed New Zealanders who are most fastidious about these things.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Be careful what you wish for, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Be careful what you wish for, in reply to Aidan,

    Aidan: Correct. There is a secondary market for the debt, so it gets sold for whatever price it'll get (and hence the buyer gets a better yield: yield = coupon/price). If secondary market yields rise then sure, the US will need to either pay a higher coupon on new debt, or drive yields down by doing QE (buying and cancelling its own debt).

    The idea that the Chinese can just bang on the door and demand their cash back is naive and wrong. (and what's actually happening is that China is draining down their foreign exchange reserves to maintain an artificially high CNY parity).

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip,

    You stats geeks, know, don't you, that there are multiple source of errors:
    - there's sampling error => I have a bag of fair coins and 60% come up heads -> that depends on the sample size and is known.
    - then you've got systematic errors => some of the coins have two heads -> that's the unknown.

    When people say a poll has a 4% error margin, that's usually sampling error. You add on to that errors because the group of people they polled wasn't representative, the people lied, the adjustments for that (based on previous experience) were wrong, etc. That number is unknown - it could be anything at all.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip,

    Fuck. I wasn't trying to invoke anything...

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip,

    Attachment

    Not saying Trump *will* win, but that there is a finite probability that he will.

    Australian TAB has him at 6.0. The US treasury market is a lot more bearish.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip,

    That BBC page shows Clinton as either behind or ahead by less than 4% in all of 13 swing states except Virginia and Wisconsin. Do you have better data?

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5387 posts Report Reply

Last ←Newer Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 538 Older→ First