you kind of need two, side by side
But TV is not a static medium, you aren't limited to a graph that is fixed. You could have some seats fixed red blue green or purple and some that flick between colours slowly or rapidly depending on uncertainty or something much cleverer with a 3D component.
Honestly is there any reason why they couldn’t report actual intervals instead of just simplistic percentages.
I have some sympathy here. Explaining confidence intervals in a three-minute news item is not something I’d like to try and do.
But yes, as you and Pete both note, treating the simple number as gospel is actually misleading.
I've been thinking about this a bit and I think it comes back to something I get told in my profession a lot. First we have to make it simple enough for the [stupid] public and second we have to avoid talking down to the [stupid] public.
The big problem I have with that is that in my experience the public is NOT stupid. Sometime they are disinterested, which is fine, a lot of the time they don't remember or never learned the necessary background, but very rarely are they unable to understand.
However it can take time to explain which gets back to your 3 minute problem.
But I still think the MSM could take a punt and start representing the poll data in a manner more closely linked to reality. They love flashy graphics and surely this is an occasion where a really nice graphical representation could convey the uncertainty of the outcomes. I suspect the public would respond quite positively to a graph that showed just how important their vote might really be come election day.
Thinking about it you need another bar or another colour on each bar to describe the don't know vote.
I'd argue that such a graph is a clearer version of the data than any of the numbers given in the news.
Yep. That’s a story they’ll want to run.
And yet that is exactly the story New Zealand needs to hear to understand that MMP is actually working as intended and not just being steamrolled by National.
It IS a balanced situation where your vote counts - NOT what is being reported.
Honestly is there any reason why they couldn't report actual intervals instead of just simplistic percentages.
What he is doing by presenting the simplistic numbers is actually misinformation
Meant as a compliment. ;-)
Taken as one :)
a gardening blog
It's called a lab book ... and people call me a crazy scientist.
*can you support this with a link? I wouldn’t be surprised, but I’d genuinely like to know what their methods are.
The stats chat article I linked on the first page talks more about it. And I think Michael and Andrew have it right.
flushing with nitrogen
You crazy scientists! ;-)
Hush I'm a crazy wine nut http://www.winekeeper.com/winekeeper-single-use-nitrogen-canister.html