Posts by izogi
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Hard News: Art with a job to do, in reply to Steve Todd,
Hi Steve. Thanks for the comprehensive info and reasonings.
Eric Crampton, Head of Research at The New Zealand Initiative in Wellington, is putting in an OIA request, to test whether the Electoral Commission can lawfully invoke section 50(1) of the Act, to withhold electronic preference data. The wording seems pretty clear to me – we are never going to know anything more than what we know now.
Ah, okay. I hadn’t noticed that clause in the Flag Referendums Act. From your tone, does that mean there’s already precedent for 50(A) to take priority over the OIA if tested in court? When reading the OIA I can’t see any specific clause which allows a request for info to be refused on the grounds that another Act of Parliament says it can’t be released. (It seems surprising the Select Committee didn’t address this apparent inconsistency, though.)
You’re right, there is no perfect voting system, but there are none better than PV/STV.
I won’t argue with the merits of STV/PV. I also think it’s probably the best system we have for as long as people can be convinced to trust it, which is critical in a functioning democracy. I’ll take it any day over FPP. I’m still not convinced that it’s perfect in all scenarios, though. If the voting populace is polarised in certain ways, then it can still reach an outcome where there’s a strong argument that it’s not the intuitively best option.
If, for example, option Z were the second option for every single voter, and so is eliminated immediately because everyone’s first preferences were evenly split between 25 alternatives, then there’s a reasonable argument that option Z could have been a compromise more acceptable for all voters. Instead of choosing Z which 100% of people wanted second, PV results in a choice which 4% wanted first, but 96% wanted third or later. If it were STV and electing ten options of 26, then the second option of every single voter still gets left out of the chosen ten because it was completely eliminated at the first round of counting.
That’s an extreme theoretical example, but comparable anomolies could probably still occur on occasion if the populace is polarised in certain ways before a vote. STV and PV aren’t necessarily good for choosing compromises which many people might find acceptable if they talked to each other, unless at least some people want it more than anything else right from the beginning.
Anyway, I’m happy with the fairness of the referendum result (even if not the politics behind the referendum). My main gripe is with people declaring how other voters think without actually having real data to justify what they’re saying.
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I can’t find anything online just yet, but according to an interim report on Radio NZ just now at about 4.30pm, the raid on Nicky Hager’s home has been ruled to have been illegal. More to come, I suppose.
Edit: on the Herald, and also Stuff.
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There's now a guilty plea. The name remains suppressed.
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Hard News: Victoria Crone and what…, in reply to Russell Brown,
Awesome. Thanks for that, Russell.
@Sacha -
Not seen that allegation. Link?
You're correct! I mis-read the Herald article. Sorry.
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I hope someone can immediately snuff this out, but with Auckland's leadership at stake does she have any significant connections with the Dirty Politics crowd, and can any interference from that side be expected?
I mostly ask because of the connections to top levels of Xero, combined with Rod Drury's statement that he really liked and read Slater's blog (y'know, until Cam started an allegedly funded campaign against him)... combined with past interference in Auckland mayoralty.
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Hard News: Art with a job to do, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,
When did this happen ? I dont remember this . Did I miss it?
Okay, point taken. “We” didn’t make the decision except to elect representatives to do it on our behalf. As @Rich of Observationz also said to me earlier, the best time to take part in the process in determining the voting and counting process was probably when the New Zealand Flag Referendums Bill was churning its way through Parliament, public submissions and Select Committee hearings. The random sample of the 272 submissions I’ve glanced at just now seem to be almost entirely saying a combination of “leave the flag as it is” and artistic variations of “John Key is a moron”, without any reference to the counting process at all.
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Hard News: Change for the Better, in reply to FletcherB,
but I suspect most of them simply assume “bikes are slow” in their sub-conscious
That much I'd believe. Even when driving I've noticed a distinct difference in the behaviour of other drivers at red lights based on the car I'm driving at the time. The 1989 Mazda 323 hatchback seems to get many more people pulling up in the lane beside at the lights, then speeding ahead when they change, instead of happily staying behind.
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Hard News: Change for the Better, in reply to Glen Koorey,
The article was misleading; sentencing is not until March.
Thanks. If so, that's terrible reporting to completely leave that out, state that he wasn't convicted, and give an impression that it's done and dusted and the man's been let off.
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Hard News: Change for the Better, in reply to FletcherB,
I take my right hand off the handlebar, and point with my finger and a horizontal fore-arm, moving it back and forward in a straight ahead direction (think choo-choo train motions). [--snip--] how many “undertake” me on the left as I expect compared to those who go past on the right and then cut dangerously across my path into the left turn lane? It’s about 5 to 1 proportion who make the wrong/dangerous/scary move….
I'm trying to imagine how it looks, but if you've raised your arm and you're gesturing forwards, is it possible that some of the latter drivers might be interpreting that as you telling them they should go around you? Maybe they think you're trying to get them in front of you for some reason?
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Hard News: Art with a job to do, in reply to Hilary Stace,
Best to only number the ones you really like. I urged people not to number the Lockwoods at all so there would be no preferences to transfer.
If you don't rank them then their final count won't go so high, because your vote's never transferred, but your vote can only have an impact if all of your prior options have been eliminated and so you're just gifting the final choice between what remains to other people. I think the only benefit of not ranking is if you want to avoid aiding an impression that more people actually really really liked a particular option, but those impressions come from a misunderstanding of how the system works more than anything else.
My own view is that I might as well rank all options according to the order I'd actually prefer them, unless I genuinely don't have a preference between them.