Posts by BenWilson
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I'm hedging by saying I think the Nats will squeak in. I think Maori would definitely prefer Labour but they won't have the numbers.
This way I'm either right or happy. I'd rather be happy, of course.
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Yup, I agree on both points - it's unlikely, and a formal arrangement is probably unnecessary. We'll see how much the little guys demand first, though.
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Indeed how can you misunderstand your own intentions? You can only lie about them.
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We have misunderstood, misread, misplanned and mismanaged our honorable intentions in Iraq with an arrogant self-delusion reminiscent of Vietnam.
I never got the slightest whiff of honorable intentions in Iraq. That's the biggest part of the self delusion. The misunderstanding, misreading, misplanning and mismanaging would not be any more honorable if the mis- parts were taken away. You could definitely manage the war in Iraq a whole lot better without ever making it an honorable thing to do.
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I still think the GOP can be a principled conservative party too, but that wouldn't make me a Republican. It would make me a dreamer.
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LOL why the hell is Hagel a Republican?
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LOL so now Fran O'Sullivan is looking at the Grand Coalition option http://www.nzherald.co.nz/wall-st-meltdown/news/article.cfm?c_id=1502755&objectid=10539824
Not sure if I'm that happy to be in agreement with a die-hard Nat like her, but it makes me curious. I guess she also fears another weak coalition at this time.
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Cheers for clearing that up Gio. How about we compromise, and YOU throw away the extrapolation for your own purposes, whatever they are. Everyone else who wants it can keep it. Personally, I want it. I also want the other data. I'm not gonna turn information-fascist and demand that various analysis be thrown away because I have no use for it.
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Gio
Well, you'd be wrong then on election day, wouldn't you?
Who knows? I still think we're arguing at cross purposes. I'm not advocating getting rid of the information about undecideds - that's crucial data about the quality. But the extrapolation is not something to throw away either, and it seems to me you are advocating that.
Since you made up a totally fictitious example lets take it a little further. Suppose in your example you would live or die by your choice and you were forced to make a choice. Would you go with the 1 person or the 2 people in your tiny poll? In absence of any other information?
I see it like a football game. National is currently ahead and we've played 80% of the game. What's the likely outcome? Of course it is still uncertain. Very uncertain. But the odds are on the team that is ahead.
The technical term margin of error is a pretty simple calculation as I remember from school, but I really don't know what kind of statistical sophistication is added by these pollsters.
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Lucy, do we actually know that the assumption of proportionality is bad? It may be quite accurate. The accuracy may already be included in the margin of error calculation. I don't know.
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