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Posted at 9:27AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

assuming a seven-seat Maori Party overhang

Or, more exactly, an overhang resulting from the Maori Party winning seven electorates -- which is not the same thing. Such a result would probably require an extra two MPs at most (unless you think there is going to be systematic vote splitting, with no Maori electorate voters giving the Maori Party their party vote -- which would be an incredibly brave prediction).

Posted at 9:33AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

You're right. I'm assuming electorate wins only and a low party vote (but not a no party vote), along the lines of the last election. So what I'm positing in that respect is on the far end of what's possible.

UPDATE
I've edited that to : assuming a Maori Party overhang.

The zero vote the original passage implied is not what I had in mind.

Posted at 9:35AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Will it be a Brasher future?

Vote National, get Rogered?

Posted at 9:45AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

What does that leave us? It leaves us with 50% looking like more of a possibility for one major party than it was a decade ago. But it’s still a very big number. Surely too big.

Well, you might be right David. Then again, looking at the other side of the Pacific rim, if you'd told me even a month ago that Obama would be in a statistical dead heat in North Carolina (which Bush carried by 12 points in '04), I'd have handed you a piss cup and told you to come back with the results of the drug test. The lovely think about the conventional wisdom of pundits is how often it turns out not to be conventional, or particularly wise.

We do know that as a tribe, the Nats hate MMP. Jim Bolger understood MMP. He threw away the long spoon and sat right down next to Winston to sup the whisky on cold winter nights. But the Nats were sore filled with rage and did cast out the great helmsman.

Oh, David... I didn't support MMP, but have gone through my grieving process and accepted that I was on the wrong side of that particular argument. You can call it a 'flip-flop' if you like; I prefer "not being a psychotic bung-hole". But I do hate Winston Peters -- and will go to my grave arguing that the National Party paid the price for that abusive marriage of inconvenience long after Winnie left the marital bed. Perhaps I was silly enough to believe Bolger when he called Peters a racist liar, and expressed no regrets about having him thrown out of the party he was leading.

Then again, I'm one of those cranks who thinks there are some prices for power that are just too high to pay. And granting sane -- if ideologically uncomfortable -- concessions to the Maori Party, or even the Greens, is nowhere near spreading your arse cheeks and asking Winston to fuck you one more time.

Posted at 9:48AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Vote National, get Rogered?

Tee hee... Instead, you can vote Labour, and who the fuck knows whether you're getting Santa Cullen or the Grinch come Christmas? Since we've just got to take that December 'stimulus package' on trust and all.

Posted at 9:48AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

The lovely think about the conventional wisdom of pundits is how often it turns out not to be conventional, or particularly wise.

It's because you don't listen to the right pundits.

Posted at 9:51AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Then again, I'm one of those cranks who thinks there are some prices for power that are just too high to pay.

Too damn right.

Posted at 10:46AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

(Merrill Lynch, for example?)

Vote National, get Lynched?

Posted at 10:51AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Vote National, get Lynched?

At the very least you get a Sub-Prime Minister.

Posted at 11:01AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Seriously, what are the odds that ACT stays in Parliament?

I've been thinking for some time that ACT and NZF are likely toast, in which case a left coalition is a distinct possibility still.

That's when there will be real anti-MMP tantrums from the Nats.

Posted at 11:02AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

At the very least you get a Sub-Prime Minister.

Best piece of political ad appropriation since the Mr Burns/I've been thinking caper in Wellington some ten years ago.

Posted at 11:06AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

the Nats believed they were right to turn their back on the traitorous and odious and loathsome Winston.

Winston Peters is not a popular politician.

His platform is against thieving, lazy, job-taking immigrants. And how he is the Kiwi battler, an innocent man against the world. $158,000, what $158,000? $100,000, what $100,000? Owen Glenn, NO, read the sign NO.

Jim Bolger understood MMP. He threw away the long spoon and sat right down next to Winston to sup the whisky on cold winter nights.

After the election he threw away the long spoon. Before the election Bolger made clear that he did not endorse any racebaiting, backpocketed politicians of questionable ethics. Any party making such an endorsement risks demotivating it's non-racist, non-backpocketed supporters.

Posted at 11:13AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Seriously, what are the odds that ACT stays in Parliament?

I'd be surprised if Rodney didn't win Epsom. But yes, it could be a tiny party vote.

I've been thinking for some time that ACT and NZF are likely toast

Labour people I've spoken to seem to think NZF could get back. A fresh coalition with Winston could really strain support for MMP.

Posted at 11:22AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Vote National, get Lynched?

Yeah, well one might think we should stay away from Chris Trotter territory.

Labour people I've spoken to seem to think NZF could get back.

Well, there are some Labour people whose tactical radar (like Karl Rove's) isn't quite as finely tuned as it used to be. :)

At the very least you get a Sub-Prime Minister.

Well, that should win Stephen Franks a few votes he doesn't really deserve. Keep it up! I think it was Lilla Harre on National Radio on Monday (in a rare outbreak of perfect and sustained harmony with Hooters) who said that voters seems to be taking the "global financial crisis" (tm) a damn sight more seriously than the politicians. Find it hard to disagree with her, for once.

Posted at 11:24AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Reporting in from (the Mt Eden end of) the Epsom electorate, Hide seems to be doing very nicely in beraking through media emphasis on the major parties - maybe even better than in 2005 - and is on the ground in billboard and person making his National coaltion points.

After listening to Sunday's NatRad debate on the economy I'm unsure how nuch of an impact he's having lifting the vote to his 3rd place on the list but overall think Act will take Epsom again.

And besides... Richard Worth: What wonders did he perform when our salt of Epsom...

Posted at 11:28AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

In Christchurch the Tolerence (sic) Bill Boards are still up on Linwood Ave & Pages Rd. It's like ACT don't even care anymore, which takes away all of the fun of laughing.

Posted at 11:39AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

You know I used to really enjoy reading your blogs David.

Posted at 11:44AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

What seems to be the problem, Rik?

Posted at 11:50AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

What seems to be the problem, Rik?

You're not the same, man. You've changed.

Posted at 11:54AM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Not enough poems, Rik?

Pollution
It's all around
Sometimes up, sometimes down
Pollution
Are you coming to my town?

Posted at 12:00PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Worth-less (arf) predictions, but all true, I promise:

ACT will hold Epsom, and have at least three MPs (which means Roger). NZ First will be out. The Maori Party won't sweep the board and their party vote will keep the overhang to only 3 seats (including Anderton).

A couple of points for election night, in the inevitable row about proportionality/overhang ("not fair, not fair"):

- there's a strong possibility that NZ First will get more votes than four parties in Parliament (ACT, UF, Maori and Progressives), but not be there

- there's a less strong, but utterly wonderful, possibility that Peter Dunne will not get enough party votes for one seat, and will promptly announce his own resignation, as he hates the idea of overhang so much

- there is only a faint possibility of commentators mentioning these two things, when they go on about the Maori seats and the "unfairness" of the result.

Posted at 12:03PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

the Nats believed they were right to turn their back on the traitorous and odious and loathsome Winston.

I wouldn't disagree.

I still think that Labour and National should have agreed a pairing solution to neutralise NZF - if NZF are opposing the government, then enough opposition MPs vote *with* the government to cancel them out.

Posted at 12:03PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Vote National, get Rogered?

Vote National, get Lynched?

At the very least you get a Sub-Prime Minister.

This is my reminder. It may be a bit old or boring but I imagine Winston will return to rule his roost, because "Joe the plumber" is the "Kiwi Battler"

Posted at 12:07PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

I still think that Labour and National should have agreed a pairing solution to neutralise NZF - if NZF are opposing the government, then enough opposition MPs vote *with* the government to cancel them out.

Well, that would have taken some genuine 'vision' and political courage so I guess we shouldn't be surprised it didn't happen. I'd have been happy if Clark and Key had held a joint press conference and said while they respect the will of the electorate (because democrazy is like that) Winston Peters and his truly "cancerous and corrosive" personality cult would have no role in any government formed on their watch.

Posted at 12:09PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

You're not the same, man. You've changed.

Is it the washboard ab's? I can go back to drinking beer if you like.

I still think that Labour and National should have agreed a pairing solution to neutralise NZF - if NZF are opposing the government, then enough opposition MPs vote *with* the government to cancel them out.

I proposed just such a thing on The Panel a couple of months ago. Farrar, who was the phone guest for the exchange, wrote it up approvingly and attributed it to Jim Mora. I can't get no respect from a Nat.

"Joe the plumber" is the "Kiwi Battler"

Joe strikes me as more of an ACT guy. He doesn't seem to like taxes very much.

Posted at 12:10PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

It may be a bit old or boring but I imagine Winston will return to rule his roost, because "Joe the plumber" is the "Kiwi Battler"

'Joe The Plumber' doesn't exist, and perhaps I'm a big ol' Pollyanna in drag but I also think the 'Kiwi Battler from Struggle Street' actually gets these are serious times for serious people. And Winston's cocktail of immigrant-trashing and privatising Kiwibank, but only letting real Kiwis buy shares, proves he's none of the above.

Posted at 12:11PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

I can't get no respect from a Nat.

I respect you heaps, David. I'll even call you in the morning. True.

Posted at 12:11PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

What seems to be the problem, Rik?

I think you know what the problem is just as well as I do.

Posted at 12:31PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

Seriously, what are the odds that ACT stays in Parliament?

Short term, pretty good. Longer term? Not so sure. They're a declining nut-cult, dedicated to a bankrupt ideology, with a shrinking number of adherants. While the thought of Roger Douglas in Parliament thrils them, its not going to win them any more supporters in the long term. Which means that if Rodney ever fails to win Epsom, or decides to pack in parliament for a more enjoyable dance career,they'll be out, and left wailing on the fringes like the social crediters.

I've been thinking for some time that ACT and NZF are likely toast, in which case a left coalition is a distinct possibility still.

That's when there will be real anti-MMP tantrums from the Nats.

Yeah - the horror of government actualy having to have a majority. How unfair!

Posted at 12:33PM on 22 Oct 08. Permalink.

By the way, if anyone really wants to look at some crazy white man action ("racist" is a little strong), watch Chris Trotter giving that uppity Maaari Party a good slap-down.