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Russell Brown
From: Auckland
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 9060
Moderator
What Happens: The Sequel!
So 1pm ticked over and after six pages and 100+ posts I figured we needed a fresh new mid-terms election thread now the results are poised to come in. Feel free to keep on arguing in the original, and we'll watch the news break here. Love your work.
Don Christie
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 1407
heh, first post...
Russell Brown
From: Auckland
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 9060
Moderator
Hmmm ...
Exit polls have a narrowly Democrat Senate:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0611/S00127.htm
But we know what happens to exit polls ...
Danyl Mclauchlan
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 641
Early exits:
Casey 61 - Santorum 38
Cardin 51 - Steele 48
McCaskill 53 - Talent 46
Webb 55 - Allen 45
Maybe I'm too hard on the Dems - even if all they accomplish is removing Rick Santorum from office they'll still have made the world a better place . . .
Eddie Clark
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 259
I wish it were otherwise, but I can't see the Dems getting past a tied Senate. The exit polls DO look very nice, though.
Tim Michie
From: Auckward
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 237
All the exit polls you can eat at http://www.pollster.com/
tim
Joe Boden
From: Christchurch
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 19
Webb 55 - Allen 45
Maybe I'm too hard on the Dems - even if all they accomplish is removing Rick Santorum from office they'll still have made the world a better place . . .
Don't forget about the good that might be done getting rid of Allen. I took great pleasure in voting against that piece of filth.
Idiot Savant
From: Palmerston North
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 1210
Danyl: well, I'll certainly be pleased to see "man on dog" Santorum go...
Danyl Mclauchlan
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 641
Gareth Jenkins
From: Auckland
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 12
Maybe I'm too hard on the Dems - even if all they accomplish is removing Rick Santorum from office they'll still have made the world a better place . . .
Yeah unfortunately it looks a lot like a "lesser of two evils" thing.
I'm not overly optimistic of a Democratic House, Senate or even President being able to deal with Iraq properly, for example. Sure, it's an impossible situation, but they have to take their share of the blame for just letting it happen.
If they have the balls to prosecute everyone that needs to be prosecuted, and basically just not be evil, then I guess that's a start.
Don Christie
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 1407
Be warned, having posted early I intend to post often.
Interrestingly, that was a take of a Chicago Democrat urging his supporters to lift the turnout figures (Daley Senior). How times have changed.
Tim Michie
From: Auckward
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 237
Stories and links from the voting booths at http://www.slate.com/id/2153237 including
Reports of busted machines from everywhere ... a bomb threat that closes a polling place ... reports of Democrats harassing Republicans in Ohio. In Michigan, the GOP is suing Democratic poll watchers for speaking to voters. And in Colorado, Latino voters are allegedly being summarily informed that, as Latinos, they are ineligible to vote at all. In Arizona, Hispanic voters are allegedly being harassed at gunpoint.
Hamish
From: The A.K.
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 132
NY Times also has excellent actual result coverage, with maps, graphs 'n all.
Andre Alessi
From: Devonport
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 232
I'm wondering what the overall effect of the election will be on the world economy, since that's where things will really impact on me personally.
Predictions for a Dem majority?
It seems from my (admittedly vastly ignorant) point of view that presidents from one party contending with Houses and Senates of the other party result in a stasis of policy that tends to create a positive economic environment, at least whith everything else being equal.
Don Christie
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 1407
By the way, do exit polls include all the advance voting that has been taking place for a couple of weeks now?
Paul Rowe
From: Waiheke Island
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 515
"Reports of busted machines from everywhere ... a bomb threat that closes a polling place ... reports of Democrats harassing Republicans in Ohio. In Michigan, the GOP is suing Democratic poll watchers for speaking to voters. And in Colorado, Latino voters are allegedly being summarily informed that, as Latinos, they are ineligible to vote at all. In Arizona, Hispanic voters are allegedly being harassed at gunpoint."
Leaving out the allegedly bit, isn't this very similar to what the US observers criticised the Nicaraguan election for (not these exact acts, obviously)
James Bremner
From: New Orleans, USA
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 274
By the way, do exit polls include all the advance voting that has been taking place for a couple of weeks now?
No, they dont.
Don Christie
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 1407
James thanks. So exit polls would have to be considered very crockish given the high levels of early voting.
Next question, do early votes get counted *before* polls close or do we have to wait for a while before those come through?
Tim Michie
From: Auckward
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 237
Exit poll FAQ: http://www.exit-poll.net/faq.html
But I'm really rather glad we don't have them for NZ elections as we're small enough to get a first actual count into circulation comparitively early.
Tim Michie
From: Auckward
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 237
From the above link: How do absentee votes affect projections?
In a number of states significant numbers of voters cast their ballots before Election Day. They either cast an absentee ballot or they vote at precincts set-up for voters in the weeks leading up to the election. These absentee/early voters cannot be included in the Election Day. Instead, they are interviewed by telephone shortly before the election. They are asked the same questions as voters interviewed in the exit polls. In some states, absentee voters will be sampled by telephone their results will be combined with those of Election Day voters.
tim
Lee Wilkinson
From: Whangarei Heads
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 45
I think the best outcome would be more accountability, better standard of debate and the end of K street and personality politics.
Fingers crossed
Paul Rowe
From: Waiheke Island
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 515
Tim:
This is from the Blog at Pollster.com:
Something else to remember: One of the things the network analysts are doing right now is comparing the exit poll results with averages of preelection polls -- averages not unlike those we have posted here on Pollster.com. If the exit poll result in a state looks out of line with the preelection result, they will not call the election even if the exit poll lead looks statistically significant. So if you see a "big" lead in a leaked exit poll, but the networks don't call that state when the polls close, you can assume that they are waiting to see hard data to confirm the exit poll result.
Jon L
From: W.A.
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 3
I'm interested in seeing if Greg Palasts dire predictions are borne out.....
http://www.gregpalast.com/how-they-stole-the-mid-term-election#more-1530
Don Christie
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 1407
Tim, quite right about the quick counting here. I believe at the last elections early ballots were counted in a sealed room prior to polls closing and then the result released whne the polls closed. As each polling station finishes the preliminary count these results are released straight away.
It *does* tend to mean that results small stations come through early and larger urban ones with lots of votes to count come in later, which can make for some interesting calls during the process. I remember one jorno calling an election for Winston Peters on the basis of the result of a about 1 polling station.
All that said, it takes much longer for the official count to take place, but I for one am very glad we have that period of scrutiny.
Tim Michie
From: Auckward
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 237
Thanks Paul.
Lee, I'm afraid to say that the day personality politcs ends will be the day it stops appealing to the voters (however much they claim otherwise) and that's not likely to be soon. The end of K Street? What... the "checks and balances" of the system aren't those in the bank account..?
tim
Lee Wilkinson
From: Whangarei Heads
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 45
Tim, yup fair call, I was just ruminating about a nicer world
Tim Michie
From: Auckward
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 237
Hi Don,
I've worked in a polling station on election day and the counts for the station's electorate are relatively simple to get right, it's the voting outside of the electorate (that I would say is an tiny portion of the vote - unless, for example, you've have a large number of troops stationed in another country) so the inital counts are fairly good.
tim
Tim Michie
From: Auckward
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 237
Lee, Whangarei looks a nicer world from where I'm sitting...
Alastair Thompson
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 127
Moderator
Ken Blackwell has lost Ohio..
So thats some good news for starters...
DCCC HOR election watch page here
http://www.dccc.org/results/index.html
Is a goodie
Katie Brockie
From: Dunedin
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 18
I'm checking out the CNN site:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/bop/index.html
it's easy to understand (which is useful for a gumby like me)
Don Christie
From: Wellington
Since: Nov 2006
Posts: 1407
Tim, unless you have two CIRs to chuck into the blender :-)
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