Hard News: Last Words
203 Responses
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Sacha, in reply to
National’s even going to give “good” schools more money.
which was the whole plan all along - ideologically consistent rewarding of the already "successful"
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Russell Brown, in reply to
As it stands, I’m party voting Mana and electorate voting for Grant Robertson, as he’s one of the better Labour MPs and deserves to survive a wipeout on the list.
I keep having to remind myself I'm not in Auckland Central any more (it was the boundary that moved, not me), because I'd really like to vote for Jacinda Ardern.
Which isn't to say I don't think Nikki Kaye isn't capable. Indeed, the quality of candidates in the electorate is remarkably high -- both the Greens' Denise Roche and Act's David Seymour do their respective parties credit. But winning in Auckland Central would give Ardern a political base that I really think she deserves.
Stil, can't complain about the MP I have. David Shearer, who should canter home in Mt Albert, strikes me as one of the most genuine people I've met in politics. He's hardworking, humble and intelligent.
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Sacha, in reply to
I'd really like to vote for Jacinda Ardern
so it was *you* who amended that billboard?
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Fascinating (as Bishop would say, dissecting a dead facehugger in Aliens), listening to Hooton on Nine to Noon. He was obsessively repeating “ so-called asset sales” and puffed up with moral indignation over Labour’s “scare campaign” (this from a man who compared them to the Kahui parents a few years ago). His urgency, and his repetitiveness was quite morbidly interesting – he seemed to be panicked.
Hooton has made disingenuousness a high art.
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I've been trying to convince people who usually can't be arsed to vote that there is one vote that will count for a lot in this election - MMP. While they're there, they might as well flick one off to whatever party is most closely aligned, even if not really representative of them.
Also, despite the polls, I do think it's going to be close. If National can't govern alone, it will need to convince one coalition partner to work with it, and that might not actually happen. They have quite literally eaten the entire right wing vote pool. Even if they win an outright majority, it's likely that this election will be a structural loss to the right, which will definitely temper their ability to do anything really unpopular.
So I'm nowhere near as gloomy about this as die-hard Labour supporters are. Indeed, if National gets to govern with the barest of majorities, cobbled together with some minor party, they could be virtually powerless to bring about any unpopular policies, and the recession will grind out support for the party of the wealthy class.
There is every chance that the next few weeks are going to be even more interesting than the last 4.
I'm still undecided about who to party vote for, but it will be to the left.
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Steve Curtis, in reply to
"National standards" only applies to primary/intermediate schools.
High schools can do their own thing until the pupil starts NCEA which is a form of standardisation
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Crowdsourcing the PAS hive-mind, and as I'm too lazy to do the research myself, anyone got any good info on Ben Clarke? He doesn't have a chance of winning against that... gardening ....woman, but I'm wondering whether to throw him a bone with my candidate vote.
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As with almost every first term government in New Zealand history, there are a fair number of people willing to extend National the benefit of the doubt. That said, it is looking like the what I think of as "parties National gives a lifeline to in order to be able to change it's policies and still look like the moderates" are collapsing this election, so the most likely result is, say, a National/Maori Party government. Which will have the flow on effect that if National wants to go beyond its mandate it will have to own it rather than being "forced" into it by a sockpuppet party.
I think the poll movements have shown that the Greens are increasingly been seen as a third axis rather than National and LabourOrGreens.
I think this election will hinge on turnout, not so much of the party faithful but of the increasing number of people that have become undecided in the past month- if the show and which way will they move. -
BenWilson, in reply to
Stil, can't complain about the MP I have. David Shearer, who should canter home in Mt Albert, strikes me as one of the most genuine people I've met in politics. He's hardworking, humble and intelligent.
I'm a little worried that he doesn't have an especially developed television presentation yet, though. He would need to work on that.
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Bart Janssen, in reply to
pissed-offness with how this National government acts
*
Which is fine for determining what you won't vote for.
But still leaves what you will vote for confused, well maybe not for you, but certainly for me.
* Yet another example of National using gut-feeling and what it knows to determine policy, sometimes in the face of evidence to the complete contrary.
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My pick for tomorrow:
National to get about 59 or 60 MPs. NZ First to get moderately close but miss out - 4.6% or something. ACT gone, Dunne in, Mana to get 2. Conservatives to miss out but I could see them getting in in the future if they stick at it and pick up NZ First/Christian Coalition/United Future/Act votes from a religious/socially conservative/crime and punishment angle.
National-Maori Party govt in a couple of weeks, asset sales and a child poverty initiative to be the big two things traded away, greens to again pick up some environmental stuff - insulation and sustainable energy in a MOU.
I'm going to go with Greens for my party vote - like some of their MPs that are in the teens on their list and feel they're easing away from their anti-science stances. Victor Billot from Alliance (he's great value at debates, rips a new hole into some of the other candidates) will get my electorate vote, the Dunedin North Labour candidate and campaign has been really disappointing this election.
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Sacha, in reply to
The Greens got my party vote.
onya
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Despite my efforts encouraging the tactical vote in Epsom, I'm quite glad I live in Auckland Central and get to vote for a candidate I actually want in parliament. MMP definitely makes the campaign period a bit more of a democratic buffet. I've been out door knocking for Jacinda, campaigning for the Green party vote, and flyering for MMP.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Which is fine for determining what you won’t vote for.
But still leaves what you will vote for confused, well maybe not for you, but certainly for me.
I'll vote how I always vote :-)
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Russell Brown, in reply to
I’ve been out door knocking for Jacinda, campaigning for the Green party vote, and flyering for MMP.
Bravo.
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So, if the left gets out the vote, as they say, we'll have a minority National party coalition, hamstrung on the crazy. Could flip left if the 20% of us who are usually non-voters can be moved significantly.
If the left stays home, we'll have a one-party state for three years, with people who don't like accountability, don't like evidence, don't like government spending (health and education, eh), and who could rattle though a quick change to a less proportional electoral system and keep it that way. Taking from poor kids to give to the rich pales in comparison.
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3410,
Despite my efforts encouraging the tactical vote in Epsom...
I saw you on TV last night and you didn't seem to care at all.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
If the left stays home, we’ll have a one-party state for three years, with people who don’t like accountability, don’t like evidence, don’t like government spending (health and education, eh), and who could rattle though a quick change to a less proportional electoral system and keep it that way.
I do tend to think they've ensured they won't have another armchair ride with the media this time though.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
Well, I think some policies aren’t well-considered. The Broadcasting policy is a missed opportunity,
And the Arts, Culture and Heritage policy seemed to think us arty-farties are a pack of size queens who'd be too impressed by twelve pages to notice that there wasn't an actual hard commitment in the damn thing. Think I'm just biased? Hamish Keith wasn't whelmed either; and we both thought Chris Finlayson fronted an equally no-weight policy from National.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Think I’m just biased? Hamish Keith wasn’t whelmed either; and we both thought Chris Finlayson fronted an equally no-weight policy from National.
It's a fail for both. For Finlayson, because he has the grounding in the sector to do something out of the ordinary.
And for Labour because Arts, Culture and Heritage (like Broadcasting) is something they should nail as a matter of identity.
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Matthew Poole, in reply to
could rattle though a quick change to a less proportional electoral system and keep it that way
umm, no, not quite. Thankfully. A change to the method of voting (which provides for two ticks) requires a 75% majority in the House.
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Jordan Carter, in reply to
Thanks Russell. I can't comment on the internal machinations of the Party obviously, but I think that the substance of our campaign has worked quite well.
What it may show, IF the result matches the polls, is that four weeks of good campaigning doesn't sway a public who really like the incumbents.
Fingers crossed and two ticks....
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I tell you what - Farrar's last minute hysterical attack on Winston Peters is the surest sign yet that a) NZ First is over 5% in National's internal polling and b) they are scared shitless.
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The Labour Capital Gains Tax proposal doesn't seem to have got much traction.
I'd have thought this was a real winner, as it is clear there is a need to raise revenue and NZ is one of a handful of countries that doesn't have a CGT.
I talked to my Mum about the election (she is 71). Apparently she likes John Key and finds Phil Goff "shifty" and untrustworthy.
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In Te Tai Toka, Rino Tirikatene was the only candidate to mail out his committments to the seat to every person on the roll…nothing from any other candidate.
I’ll be voting for him – and the Greens will get my party vote (because, despite some of the flakier elements in their policies, they do have a committment to The Environment, which is an absolute for me.)
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