Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Last Words

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  • James W, in reply to Conrad Lake,

    My prediction:

    Despite the lowest turnout in decades, National gets enough votes to govern alone. This gives them a 'mandate', 'political capital' and 'full-on boners' and they'll proceed to fuck the country for the next three years. However, it'll be long-term fuckage, like breeding a new generation of criminals because of welfare reform and low wages, so they'll be able to blame the resulting increase in crime on Labour in 2018. The economy continues doing sweet fuck all, National continues to blame the Worldwide Economic Crisis (c 2009), John Key reminds people he used to be a banker, and not one of his supporters makes the connection because they're all wondering what it'd be like to touch his flesh. They continue to ruin NZ's "clean, green" image so the reason people would contemplate moving here is because they want to live in a smaller, much less efficient China. Gerry Brownlee eats Tony Ryall and no one notices. The Maori Party, formed over one issue which they promptly sold out on, continues to fret over stuff like whether they can fly a flag over a bridge, while they carry on supporting whatever underclass-destroying policy National comes up with – just to fuck with them, National proposes "All Alphabets With Less Than 16 Letters In Them" tax. Maori Party backs it, under urgency. John Key threatens to kill Annette King's children, but on Parliament TV so no one sees it. ACC is "opened to competition", so finally those poor lawyers and private insurance companies can make some goddamn money in this country. After the media remembers what their job description is, they attack National's constant secrecy with the NZ Herald's condemning editorial written in red ink on its front page (under a banner teasing 'Sonny Bill William's Erect Cock' on page 3 – turns out he bought a very alert rooster). In response, National pledges not to suppress REDACTED unless it's because of "commercial sensitivity" and anyone who REDACTED will get a right REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED Umbrella Man REDACTED. Public Service Television will be a funny nostalgic concept that people think about and cock their heads to the side like, 'did anyone ever go for that?', sorta like jazz. The only thing remaining on free-to-air TV is Marcus Lush chatting to some unique Kiwi characters in Bulls. National places no less than four - FOUR - energy companies on the NZ Stock Market and blame the Worldwide Economic Crisis as to why they don't make $4 billion after all. By 2020 electricity prices will be so high there'll be a hipster trend towards hand-cranking. John Key steps down in 2013 so he can focus on converting his swimming pool of water into a swimming pool of jam. Petrol becomes so expensive that the only people able to afford running a car are National party members, leading to laws banning walking and standing without the aid of a motor vehicle. National comes to the homes of anyone who publicly disagrees with them and kneecap the women, but the public says it's still better than Labour's "nanny state where I couldn't choose my own lightbulbs." Stephen Joyce becomes the head of Telecom. National bans the colour red. 'Cannibal' becomes occupation option on census. There is no more sun, only ash.

    Labour + Greens narrowly win the 2014 election.

    Since Jul 2008 • 125 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    I think they rule Mana out because Mana Scares the middle class. Just a note, Russell Norman was very popping and patronising of Mana when I herd him on National radio, debating issues around child poverty.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2777 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    Predicting the election outcome, is like talking from the third person.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2777 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to steven crawford,

    I think Craig got it right when he described The Greens leaders as impersonating competent adults.They seem to have painted a glossy picture.

    OK, Steve, I do get that nothing less than Russell Norman taking a live shit on a photo of John Key is going to satisfy some people. I’ve certainly heard various Labour proxies running the “a vote for the Greens is a vote for National” line with bugger all cut through.

    Back on planet Earth, I’m a lot more comfortable with the possibility of the Greens acting as a moderating influence on National than Labour hoping Winston and Hone are both in a good mood at any given moment.

    Despite the lowest turnout in decades, National gets enough votes to govern alone. This gives them a ‘mandate’, ‘political capital’ and ‘full-on boners’ and they’ll proceed to fuck the country for the next three years.

    FFS, James - so you're going to try using turn out to delegitimate any National-led government? Well, fine - if the turnout is more than 50% and National secures more than 49% of that, you will accept that Key is more legit than Len Brown?

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12052 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Yes Craig, the Greens probably will have a more moderating influence on National than Labor. As for Winson and Honi, they are two entirely different people. One being part of a political party that,s not just there to support its leaders meglomania.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2777 posts Report Reply

  • Conrad Lake,

    Has Selwyn Manning done his look into electorates this election? I loved reading in 2008 and was hoping he'd repeat it this time but haven't seen it anywhere.

    CHCH • Since Apr 2009 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • TracyMac, in reply to Ben McNicoll,

    I'm sure this is discussed further downthread, but why have such a bastardised system as PV when you might as well go the whole hog with STV and get a properly proportional result (if that's what you want)?

    And yes, the big parties hogging the seats is precisely reason I was never impressed with the system while living in Oz.

    Canberra, West Island • Since Nov 2006 • 496 posts Report Reply

  • DeepRed, in reply to merc,

    Joyce knows that his highway is a ribbon of oil to carry bigger diesel trucks to carry the petrol from the offshore oil rig to go in the cars that pay the tax on the oil that pays for the police and the soldiers…you get what I mean.

    Again, my anti-Holiday Highway poster can be downloaded from my new blog and circulated. In the long run, someone needs to call it out for the Think Big 2.0 that it is.

    Personally I think if the Nats get back in as widely predicted, they’ll do so with a reduced majority. And if Banks and Dunne are given the heave-ho, any one of the Greens, NZF or the Maori Party could hold the balance of power. And that could potentially gridlock the Project for a New Aotearoan Century that threatens to be foist upon us. The real reasons why Shirtcliffe et al hate MMP is because it’s a de facto upper house in the absence of a real one.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 4403 posts Report Reply

  • Isaac Freeman,

    I've considered Labour carefully at every election since I turned eighteen, and been convinced to vote for them. I know a bunch of good people in the Labour Party, generally like their policies, and admire Helen Clark and Michael Cullen. But when it comes down to it, there's something about the culture of the Labour Party that bothers me.

    I find it mostly in the pervasive Labour attitude towards the Greens. I see a party with a distinct political tradition, extremely capable leadership and a commitment to decent, honorable politics. Labour people I speak to seem to see them only as the party that steals "Left" votes that rightfully belong to Labour.

    I take exception to the notion that my vote belongs to anybody but me.

    Christchurch • Since Feb 2007 • 133 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to TracyMac,

    The point of PV is to produce a distorted result which favours the major parties (as is the point of all the other systems including STV). If you want the number of MPs to be guaranteed* to reflect the number of votes, choose MMP.

    * Apart from thresholds and overhangs. But these pale into insignificance beyond the distortions you get with STV, which (given the stated 3-7 MP electorates) favours parties with local support and under-represents smaller parties with uniform votes across the country. Unless people vote tactically, or parties horse-trade their preferences to get their chosen support partners in. Etc.

    I'm voting for SM in the referendum, in the hope of balancing the numbers for each
    "alternative" out so that none gets enough support to create a bandwagon.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 4484 posts Report Reply

  • Kracklite, in reply to Sacha,

    Wonder if that’s more or less likely with a significant Greens vote?

    Hmm, a dilemma. If Labour is… I will not write “decimated” because it means one tenth of mutinying legionnaires are crucified…

    …um, if they suffer something bad tomorrow, there won’t be enough younger and newer MPs to rejuvenate what I think of as the Baby-Boomer Politburo (though Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko had the decency to be crippled with age before they got so solipsistic), but I can also imagine them saying afterwards, “Phew, that was close, we really need to cut out the dead wood… really, we do… OK guys? Guys? <crickets> OK, soon anyway… in time for the next election… nah.”

    I’ve been surprised at Goff’s improvement in performance over the last few months and my congratulations go to Brian Edwards. The knives might be out on Sunday, but he may well have saved his job as party leader, but I doubt that he can translate that into the will or authority to cut out the dead wood.

    Since everyone else is doing it:

    Definitely MMP, maybe STV as second choice or probably no second choice.

    Party vote Green, especially based on Meteria Turei’s performance and the party’s general performance and the fact that the environment is not simply treated as just a nice thing to have (despite some of their fringe still afraid of anything with genes or even neutrons). Kedgely’s departure has had a major part to play in that decision.

    You know, I’ve had half an iota of a slight fraction of an impulse to consider whether I might hypothetically permit the thought of voting ACT, purely based on the idea that their presence in parliament might be vastly entertaining, to begin drawing up non-binding proposals, exploring as a range of scenarios, the possibility of crossing my mind… but decided to forget it.

    Part of my reasoning for voting Green is, if they support Labour, they’ll be Banquo’s Ghost at least, reminding them of things they thought they could forget once they gained power. If, on the other hand, they come to some arrangement with National (such as abstention on confidence and supply – I can’t imagine formal coalition, because they know it would tear apart their base), they might be able to blunt the sharper edges of their policy.

    There is simply no way I can vote Labour. It’s the last three years AWOL as opposition and their support for too much illiberal legislation in that time and before. The fact that they have some good policies now only reminds me of Churchill’s quip that Americans will always do the right thing – when they have exhausted every other option. It’s a hollowed brand for me and even if they were willing to carry out their policies, as Danyl says above, I don’t feel they can do it competently, without compromise… or even at all (like their arts policy, which is full of “Yeah… later… nah.”).

    Electoral vote… problematic. I’m not as impressed as many are with Robertson – he’s just a particularly good party apparatchik IMO. Considering the strength of my disdain for the party as a whole (you can tell, can’t you?), it’s a “No.” Probably Shaw as a protest vote.

    Fingers crossing enough to provide diagrammatic illustrations of String Theory for a good Labour Party list in 2014, for Jones to be burned as a witch by crazed Destiny members for something like whistling on a Tuesday and Mallard to suffer some equally painful, ignominious and poetically just fate as well (perhaps he’ll have the wild inspiration to see if an out-of-control combine harvester can survive a head-on collision with a twatcock on a bike?).

    The Library of Babel • Since Nov 2007 • 980 posts Report Reply

  • Isaac Freeman, in reply to Kracklite,

    Since everyone else is doing it:

    We are? Well, then...

    Greens
    Kennedy Graham
    MMP
    STV

    in that order.

    Christchurch • Since Feb 2007 • 133 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    Fuck it, I have to decide at some point. Shearer+Green+MMP (2nd STV). What I liked about the Labour policy is Green policy too, and has been for some time. I'm not so much of an environmentalist, but when you stack environmentalism up as a counter to environmental plunder, you end up somewhere sane in between.

    I feel NZF's vulnerability and that them getting in would probably make for a more hobbled National party, but I just can't stomach Peters. I would not cry to see him in parliament, but I will not give him my support. If I am telling Epsom voters not to tactically vote Banks, to be consistent, I have to avoid doing the same thing myself.

    Mana seems like a close policy fit, but I want to wait and see what they actually advocate for a few years first. I fell for that one with ACT, way back when I thought liberalism meant more than the free market, and good on Brash for finally even mentioning the embarrassment of weed prohibition, right at the moment that ACT's entire voter base shows that was never the kind of thing they were about. Mana could be about social justice, or they could be about highly authoritarian ideas.

    ETA: I have split my vote this way 3 times now. 2002, 2005. Only last time did I double tick Labour.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8675 posts Report Reply

  • ScottY, in reply to Kyhwana,

    Sadly, I think it's illegal to do that. You can't try to get people to vote or even tell them NOT to vote! (For anyone!)

    I won't be doing either of those things. All we'll be doing is telling people that if they haven't voted yet we'd be happy to take them down to the polling booth. It's perfectly legal, and Labour does it every election.

    For some people, like the elderly or infirm, it's often the only way they can get out of the house to vote.

    Yorke of The Atatu • Since Feb 2009 • 790 posts Report Reply

  • Joshua Arbury,

    Greens
    Ardern
    MMP
    STV

    Party vote was probably the toughest choice but dead keen to get Julie Genter at #13 on the Greens' list into parliament.

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 217 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Isaac Freeman,

    Labour people I speak to seem to see them only as the party that steals “Left” votes that rightfully belong to Labour.

    And to be fair, I knew plenty of folks on the Nat side of the ledger who had the same attitude towards ACT – a raiding party of nasty little Vikings “cannibalising” (to use Tom’s charming phrase) the fertile women and sheep that belong to us.

    To paraphrase Neil Gaiman’s infamous smack down of fans with entitlement issues: The electors of this country are not your bitches. Deal with it.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12052 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    I’m voting for SM in the referendum, in the hope of balancing the numbers for each “alternative” out so that none gets enough support to create a bandwagon.

    I would have thought that with John Key's endorsement of SM, and the campaign for change, that SM will be the highest non-MMP option (though I could make a case for FPP or STV). I'm not expecting PV to get much love.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 903 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    You have a good point there Ben. Mana is an unknown. I might become embarrassed about my open support, but as I said earlier, It’s going to require over 3 percent of the party vote plus the electorate to find out what they are about. I have no need to vote Greens any longer because they are safe, and they no longer present much practical social policy. It all seems to be big picture stuff, like"the economy” jobs, environment, solving child poverty. I don’t think big picture is going to cut the mustard for thousands of despondent people. Small picture, like removing the right to assault children was more my cup of tea. Mana, I hope, will be the small picture party.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2777 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes, in reply to Kracklite,

    There is simply no way I can vote Labour. It’s the last three years AWOL as opposition and their support for too much illiberal legislation in that time and before.

    Here lies the problem. Your little protest could mean we get National again. And your argument? that they didn't do what you wanted whilst in opposition. Well, let me remind you that National are so fucking arrogant that the opposition is as good as hogtied, neutered, ignored. A vote against Labour is as good as a vote for National and these people are dangerous.
    Give the bastards an inch and they will eat your children.

    The wireless north ;-) • Since Dec 2006 • 4947 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Isaac Freeman,

    I find it mostly in the pervasive Labour attitude towards the Greens. I see a party with a distinct political tradition, extremely capable leadership and a commitment to decent, honorable politics. Labour people I speak to seem to see them only as the party that steals "Left" votes that rightfully belong to Labour.

    That's such a good analysis, and that arrogance is why I will vote for individual MPs who represent my electorate well but will never again party vote Labour. I have in the past voted Labour, National and Green. This time I'm party vote Green, electorate Labour (Ruth Dyson) and MMP to keep extremists of any hue in check.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2613 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    Yup that’s what I chose
    greens
    local Labour guy
    mmp
    stv

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2187 posts Report Reply

  • merc, in reply to Steve Barnes,

    You make a point and I lightened up with a little giggle, thanks for that.

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Steve Barnes,

    A vote against Labour is as good as a vote for National

    Nonsense. My way or the highway huh?

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2613 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to Steve Barnes,

    how do you vote against a political party? I would like to vote against National if I may.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2777 posts Report Reply

  • JLM, in reply to webweaver,

    Craig, you have no idea how inordinately happy I felt when I read this. You rock!

    I did a happy, waving-hands-in-the-air dance too.

    Judy Martin's southern sl… • Since Apr 2007 • 228 posts Report Reply

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