Hard News by Russell Brown

Read Post

Hard News: Democracy Night

779 Responses

First ←Older Page 1 15 16 17 18 19 32 Newer→ Last

  • BenWilson, in reply to Joshua Arbury,

    In other words in 2014 we could have a Labour PM but National be the largest party. Hopefully the country is mature enough to handle such an outcome.

    That was the outcome the left wanted in THIS election. And it is still actually possible, as an outside shot, however much the Herald has called it for Key. Having got their Digipolls so wrong, I'm not even paying attention to their stupid predictions at the moment. The whole thing could be torn from under them if the Maori Party decides that being spanked into oblivion in 2014 isn't what they spent all that time building a party for.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8737 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart, in reply to Hebe,

    Chch Central was always a bit of a worry: the emptied-out city centre, a fewer than 1000-vote majority, redrawn boundaries a few years ago and Brendon Burns being a nice guy without an ounce of mongrel in him.

    It also encompasses a lot of areas with high turnover in population - I've doorknocked there for Labour, well before the quake, and you got a lot of people who'd moved on and in since the last time someone went round, whereas when I did the same in Christchurch East there were a lot more people who'd lived there for a long time. When you have people who haven't lived there very long, they wouldn't be likely to stick around after the quakes.

    As Conrad says, Brendon has been an extremely active and dedicated electorate MP, despite losing his electorate office in both September and February and, IIRC, suffering severe damage to his house. The result isn't a total shock but it is unusual, and probably owes something to a combination of factors that may well have been outside Labour's control.

    Amherst, MA • Since Nov 2006 • 2093 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    it is still actually possible, as an outside shot

    not sure how, from what I've seen discussed about specials.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Joshua Arbury,

    Other interesting thought is how things might be different if left leaning voters were more strategic.

    In Ohariu Dunne got 13228 votes, while Hughes and Chauvel got 13357 between them. Oops if you voted for Hughes!

    In Epsom Banks got 14150 votes but add together Goldsmith, Parker and Hay you get 16428.

    If the left had been smarter the Nats would really have no friends and be stranded on 59 seats

    Auckland • Since May 2009 • 217 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    if the Maori Party decides that being spanked into oblivion in 2014 isn't what they spent all that time building a party for

    Victoria University's Maria Bargh recommended yesterday on Marae Investigates that they enter specific MOUs like the Greens have done, to minimise the tainting that Sharples acknlowledged explicitly on the show and on election night had probably cost them votes this time. The prospect of continued Ministerial power for their retiring leaders will probably prevail, though who knows what the party's members will say when they're consulted shortly.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca,

    Last night, the Prime Minister said support for partial asset sales would likely be part of agreements with Act and United Future but not with the Maori Party, which opposes the plan.

    And that is all that Key Inc. needs. Can't see a conscience vote being an option. Maori Party will support Assets gone because they want particular points scored this time. They already announced that some Iwi were interested in buying shares. They will win one way or another, so supporting sales can work for them. Plus John Banks isn't really ACT so MP are not going against their word of never dealing with ACT.
    Key Inc. is talking sales every day, it's coming and it's coming soon, leaving little time to protest.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6358 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Joshua Arbury,

    If the left had been smarter

    Is anyone doing research on why left voters fail to vote strategically?

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    They will win one way or another, so supporting sales can work for them.

    Can you say more about how you see that working?

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to BenWilson,

    Dude, iPredict. You can gamble on there to your heart’s content.

    I've been loudly and publicly rude enough about iPredict that even my lack of shame stops at gambling the grocery money there... :)

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12073 posts Report Reply

  • Keir Leslie,

    Central was always a marginal seat. We've known this for a long time, given (a) boundary changes, and (b) the fact there's been a massive swing against Labour nationwide. But Brendon personally is very popular. He's pulled 10,493 votes, against 6,849 party votes. Wagner's vote tracks the National Party vote pretty precisely.

    The comment about voter flight is pretty accurate. When we get down to it, there were 23 thousand votes counted in Christchurch Central. Auckland Central had 27 thousand. Wellington Central had 31 thousand. There's no doubt that voters have left, and there's no doubt to my mind what kind of voters they likely were.

    I am very confident that the specials will swing for Labour, given that they always do, and that many special voters will be people who have left because of the earthquake, and many of those voters have been helped by Brendon and his office.

    Since Jul 2008 • 1395 posts Report Reply

  • James Butler,

    Hmm, I hadn't thought of Banks' win this way before. But I wonder if Rudman is over-estimating Banks' dedication to the CBD rail link, and under-estimating his dedication to his own electoral success.

    Auckland • Since Jan 2009 • 801 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Sacha,

    not sure how, from what I've seen discussed about specials.

    There are some scenarios with even quite a small movement that have National losing 2 seats. When it's as tight as it is, it's no wonder the Right are desperately trying to negotiate a coalition before the votes are actually counted. The Maori Party should hold on to see whether their leverage is minor or total - it could make a huge difference to the deal they cut.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8737 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    I am very confident that the specials will swing for Labour, given that they always do

    In line with the general count, wouldn't you expect some to instead go to the Greens and Winston First this time?

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Conrad Lake,

    Ha! And they have your id now: the ultimate swing vote; get him and you're in.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2634 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    Agree. It was a two-horse race really so most specials will not foloow the higher Green and NZ First vote trend.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2634 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    The mainstream left must realise its own role in any rise of right wing populism in Britain. By abandoning much of their traditional constituency or treating them with disdain, and embracing culturally divisive politics, they have created a space and for the far right to fill.

    Tagnetially relevant for this country, I think. It seems the British left is starting to get it’s head around the consequences everywhere for Labour parties when they have disconnected from their working class base, and the need for them to stop worrying about divisive identity politics and bossing everyone beneath them about from lofty heights.

    Mind you, wouldn’t it be fabulous if one our newspapers partnered up with someone for a "Battle of Ideas" festival.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1825 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    True, the balance alters in the Maori Party's favour if National loses the expected one seat, or another one which seems vanishingly unlikely.

    However unless the Mana and Maori parties get over their antipathy and the same for Winston and the Greens, the only viable ruling combination includes National even if the Maori Party enters into a looser arrangement with them than last time. That would reduce their ability to negotiate any concessions - and Turia said point blank yesterday that being in opposition offers them "Nothing".

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to BenWilson,

    When it’s as tight as it is, it’s no wonder the Right are desperately trying to negotiate a coalition before the votes are actually counted.

    Oh, Ben... take a very deep breath and enhance your calm. I guess if Key had said he was off to the beach and would have a quick ring around in a couple of weeks you'd be cursing him as an arrogant twatcock. Unless I've really missed something, I don't see any great "desperation" in anything Key's said over the last 36 hours.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12073 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    I've been loudly and publicly rude enough about iPredict that even my lack of shame stops at gambling the grocery money there... :)

    I must have blinked and missed it. But so what? If you really find anything meaningful in gambling arguments, all the infrastructure is right there in place for you to put your money where your mouth is, as so many gamblers are fond of saying. I don't personally like to gamble on that kind of market because it's a zero sum game minus the house's cut, which is a total waste of money. But I acknowledge that it's been an extremely accurate predictor. The Stratos show was also very good watching with a wide variety of people who had been denied mainstream media voices giving extremely incisive commentary. Something about the cold evaluation of odds took away the partisan antipathy that often arises and kills sense when opposed speakers discuss politics. It didn't matter in the slightest that Bomber is extremely left wing, and made no secret of it at all, indeed that just added humor to the show.

    The only heated moment was Hooton having a go at Hone. Hone showed aplomb that is counter to all opinions of him that I've heard to date. I think it was a ploy by Hooton to see if he could provoke a mongrel response, but there wasn't even the least flicker in Hone's eyes. Seasoned campaigner there.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8737 posts Report Reply

  • Keir Leslie,

    In line with the general count, wouldn’t you expect some to instead go to the Greens and Winston First this time?

    Not candidate votes, no.

    Since Jul 2008 • 1395 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to James Butler,

    But I wonder if Rudman is over-estimating Banks' dedication to the CBD rail link, and under-estimating his dedication to his own electoral success.

    I'd say so. And can you imagine Banks standing up to Joyce when his tongue is so firmly planted up Key's behind?

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16996 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Sacha,

    Maori Party are already talking about how amongst those they represent, there is interest to support assets sold. That would solidify Key Inc agenda. It would keep those who support sales who are Maori constituents, and those against, well Turia and Sharples are off soon but they will get a trade off which can please those opposing. As soon as Maori Party agrees, I bet it will be monotonous through the media, " Majority of Parliament supports this".
    Everyone will pop off for Xmas holidays just like RWC and when people come back for the new year all fresh and relaxed, BOOM!

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6358 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    I guess if Key had said he was off to the beach and would have a quick ring around in a couple of weeks you'd be cursing him as an arrogant twatcock. Unless I've really missed something, I don't see any great "desperation" in anything Key's said over the last 36 hours.

    He's been picking the new Labour leader himself. All right "desperately" is overegging it. "Hopefully" is closer to true - because they surely can't think the Maori Party so stupid as to enter serious negotiations until the numbers are actually known.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8737 posts Report Reply

  • James Butler, in reply to Sacha,

    And can you imagine Banks standing up to Joyce when his tongue is so firmly planted up Key’s behind?

    I'd... rather not.

    Auckland • Since Jan 2009 • 801 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell,

    There are some scenarios with even quite a small movement that have National losing 2 seats.

    Love your optimism, but we lost this one. Electorally, yes, it’s quite close. I was really really hoping the MP would have the balance of power, and slow down or stop both beneficiary bashing and asset sales. But it’s highly unlikely. 61 votes in parliament can do almost anything in NZ.
    And wouldn’t be especially ‘fair’, either. Cos on the broader count, we still lost. I also winced when JK talked of his ‘overwhelming majority’- but the right clearly won the party vote %. It’s kind’ve close if you squint hard enough to count NZF- and maybe even the MP- as part of the left (I can’t do this.) But the Conservative Party vote ain’t left. Dunne, Act, National + Conservative were over 50% fair and square.
    Bummer, eh.
    But it’s not a rout (either electorally or for the parties of the left). And the lowish turn-out shows quite clearly where some of the work that needs doing needs to be targeted.
    It’s interesting, as a curiosity, that strategic voting in Epsom and Ohariu could have meant the ‘right’ had a clear lead in party vote overall, but still couldn’t get to 61 without the MP. But while it may come into play again, dwelling on that is pointless.
    The left needs to talk, listen, argue and develop an alternative, more collective and communal vision for the country. That’s work, and it needs working on :)

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 1599 posts Report Reply

First ←Older Page 1 15 16 17 18 19 32 Newer→ Last

Post your response…

Please sign in using your Public Address credentials…

Login

You may also create an account or retrieve your password.