Legal Beagle by Graeme Edgeler

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Legal Beagle: The Magic Number

17 Responses

  • Russell Brown,

    Each state in the Democratic process is basically the same – 75% of their pledged delegation is awarded proportionally at the district level, 25% is awarded at-large across the state, and 15% is awarded to pledged PLEO delegates (yes – the Democratic Party rules actually use these percentages).

    Good grief.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 18957 posts Report Reply

  • Neil Morrison,

    The Imperial percentage system.

    Since Nov 2006 • 932 posts Report Reply

  • Neil Morrison,

    Clinton wins American Samoa. Could be the decider.

    Since Nov 2006 • 932 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    Neil - you might be right.

    MSNBC is predicting the delegate position after tonight as 841 Obama vs 837 Clinton.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3009 posts Report Reply

  • Neil Morrison,

    ha, the fate of the world rests with our South Pacific cousins.

    AS has 6 delegates - 3 supers and 3 from the caucus. I don't know which way the supers will go.

    Does that MSNBC prediction include California - it seems Clinton could win with a reasinably big margin.

    Since Nov 2006 • 932 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    The prediction does include California. Obama staffers have been saying they'll lose California by 15 delegates. Clinton staffers have been saying they'll win by 25-34 delegates. MSNBC used the 34 number.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3009 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    OK, this is weird. I've checked in at CNN, and they've called Califormia for Clinton and McCain with less than a third of precincts reporting but huge leads (16 and 17 points respectively). Isn't that a little previous, or is there some nuance I'm missing (like their website isn't being updated)?

    I just find it hard to believe CNN would risk getting something like this wrong after the 2000 Florida call debacle.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12031 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    You're right Craig, they all (NBC, ABC, CNN) called California with that proportion of the precincts reporting. My guess is something like very good exit polling combined with particular bell-weather precincts, and substantial enough leads... They've certainly been careful in a number of states, not even making predictions with 98% of votes in.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3009 posts Report Reply

  • Neil Morrison,

    cnn has total delegates as Clinton 698, Obama 588.

    From what I've read that 110 difference makes things pretty tight. It's borderline for Clinton but Obama is looking to do well in the up-coming primaries.

    It will be interesting to see how they both adapt their campaign messages. With Clinton winning the most populous and most cosmopolitan states it might be a bit hard for him to continue the Hillary the great divider line.

    Since Nov 2006 • 932 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    It will be interesting to see how they both adapt their campaign messages. With Clinton winning the most populous and most cosmopolitan states it might be a bit hard for him to continue the Hillary the great divider line.

    Well, I suspect we're going to see a lot of post-Super Tuesday analysis that's going to make it awfully hard to sustain the meme that Obama can't hail a cab without the 'bros over hos" black vote either. (Though that was crap from the very beginning -- as I believe Iowa's black population is about as scarce as a pork pie on a kosher deli platter.)

    Very interesting exit poll data coming out of California that upsets a lot of pundit CW about both Clinton and Obama, which isn't a bad thing in my view.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12031 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    And while I'd rather get blown by a shark than vote for Huckabee, the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the crapulous folks who take Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh seriously is sweet, sweet music.

    Let's hope McCain announces The Huckster as his running mate on July 4, so America can celebrate to the sound of Ann-droids and Dittoheads imploding from sea to shining sea. :) I'd sure love to see McCain call Coulter and Limbaugh's bluff, and walk them down to the nearest Clinton campaign office to volunteer their services.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12031 posts Report Reply

  • Shep Cheyenne,

    Wake me up when Puerto Rico, Guam, Panama, Saipan, & Samoa have a primary.

    Since Oct 2007 • 927 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    Wake me up when Puerto Rico, Guam, Panama, Saipan, & Samoa have a primary.

    From CNN:

    While American Samoa participates in the Democratic and Republican nomination processes, it does not participate in the general election.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6201 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    <blockquote>Wake me up when Puerto Rico, Guam, Panama, Saipan, & Samoa have a primary.</blockquote>

    I find it rather interesting that the Democrats effectively have a 51st state: Democrats Abroad who have held a global primary:

    The only option for Democrats until recently was for Americans living abroad to mail absentee ballot request forms to their last U.S. county of residence, then wait in hopes that shaky mail systems would deliver the ballots in time to vote.

    Now the expatriate Democrats will be treated like a 51st state, giving them a greater voice. The Democratic National Convention in August will include 22 delegates from overseas. Under party rules, delegates get half a vote each at the convention for a total of 11. That's more than U.S. territories get, but fewer than the least populous states, Wyoming and Alaska, which get 18 delegate votes each.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12031 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    they've called Califormia for Clinton and McCain with less than a third of precincts reporting but huge leads (16 and 17 points respectively)
    ...
    I just find it hard to believe CNN would risk getting something like this wrong after the 2000 Florida call debacle.

    And though there were late calls, as I pointed out, there were also other really early calls - with 10% of precincts reporting, McCain on 41%, Huckabee behind on 35%, NBC are predicting a Huckabee win in Alabama.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3009 posts Report Reply

  • Tim Michie,

    In the earlier primaries, except in the closest of races, I've notived that the candidate leading between 10-20% of the votes counted is called the winner - and this has been correct.

    The close race in NH was called at 70%, but Clinton had the slight lead from 10% counted.

    Auckward • Since Nov 2006 • 564 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Austin,

    If random encounters in London are anything to go by then it is Obamatown

    London • Since Nov 2006 • 894 posts Report Reply

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