Poll Dancer by Keith Ng

Allow my foghorn to answer your question...

Woou-wooul! Guess I got it wrong. Yesterday, I wrote that National intends to fund its tax cut by increasing debt to 26.3% of GDP by 2008/09. Well, it turns out that I was right for a small part - National does intend to raise debt in 2008/09 by 1% of GDP, but that's compared with 2006 figures (which will be National's first budget), not 2004 figures, and damn, it makes a pretty big difference.

The 2006 gross sovereign issued debt is 21.3%, compared with 25.3% in 2004. So, rather than the 26.3% figure I pulled out last night, it's only 22% (according to National's estimates).

This would mean that National is still going to be more indebted at the end of the forecast period than Labour, but rather than $12.8b more, it'll be around $3.2b.

It's not entirely insignificant, but heck, it's a big difference.

[Update: The forecast at the time of the Budget was that gross debt in 2008/09 was going to be 20.2% under the current government. This is the figure that National was working from. The 19.1% that I used yesterday was from the Pre-Election opening of the books. My bad - thanks Idiot/Savant.]

So, I retract my last post (will keep it on there for comical and self-flagellation purposes), and I apologise sincerely for any fiscal indigestion I may have caused.