I don't have kids, and I'm not even close to hitting the second tax bracket, but damnit - I want to cash in on this election.
The weekend's poll has shifted Centrebet's odds to 1.75 for Labour and 1.95 for National. It's as unfavourable as it's been for Labour for a while - and I've just staked $100 on the fact that this is National's high-tide mark for this election.
Why? It's partly a matter of pace. National has been steady in increasing its momentum - it's followed a disciplined plan of using taxes and race as its rocket-boosters, hoping to pick up speed, get a lead, then cruise to the finish line. The question is, has it achieved escape velocity? Or will it fall back to earth before the end?
Labour came out with its shock and awe student loan policy, then threw out more on WFF. But, like I said when the student loan policy came out, the real question is: what have they got stashed away for the end-game?
It's a pretty big variable, which makes it worth a gamble.
And of course, the minor parties will have a huge impact on the numbers, and the variables on those are farcically chaotic*. The present thinking seems to be that ACT voters should support the National candidate in Tauranga (at least when asked in opinion polls) to put NZ First perilously on the edge so that National will go crawling back to ACT on its hands and knees, forsaking their own man in Epsom and ensuring ACT's return; Labour voters should support the National candidate in Epsom to obliterate ACT and ensure that National doesn't have anyone to form a government with.
With enemies like these, who needs friends?
("Chaotic" systems, as in Chaos Theory, refer to systems in which very small changes in the starting variable can lead to very big changes in the outcome. They're not random, since they're theoretically predictable, but you just need to know the starting variables with a practically impossible level of precision.)