Cracker by Damian Christie

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Cracker: Stoned in Charge

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  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Damian Christie,

    In Norway drink/driving and drug/driving are very socially unacceptable, and so those who do it tend to be 'outlaws on the edge of society', so they're crashing for other reasons, not just booze/pot.

    So in short, the Norwegians understand that substance abuse is a symptom, rather than a cause of criminality. Seems in NZ and other New World Anglophone nations, anything other than attacking the symptom is too small to fit on a bumper sticker and shot down as "PC gone mad".

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5416 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    shot down as "PC gone mad"

    this Allied Licker shotgun is superb

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19685 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    Any chance you have a link or citation for the Canadian study on fatal crashes? An odds ratio of 40 sounds quite close to 5*8 (odds for cannabis * odds for alcohol), suggesting that either no interaction was included in the model, or that the interaction was small or non-significant, which would be an interesting result.

    I had a second think about this, and I don't think it can just be a multiplier. Example:

    If for any drive you have a 1% chance of an accident. If cannabis makes that 5 times more likely, you have a 5%. Alcohol makes it 8 times more likely so that's 8%.

    To figure out the multiplier of the two, you don't multiply 5% by 8%. You multiply 1-n. So that's 95% by 92%. Which is 87.4% - your chance of not having an accident while under both. Under a multiplier with a base of 1% you have a 12.6% of having an accident while under both.

    That's 12.6 times as likely, not 40 times as likely.

    If you redo it with a base of 0.1% (probably much more accurate, you have an accident every thousand times you drive), 99.5% times 99.2% = 98.7%. 1.3% chance of being affected by both, so 13 times as likely (there's some rounding taking place there).

    So it's either incredibly basic maths fail, or there's something else going on.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

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