Hard News: The Mood
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What all of this ignores is that National have used them for years, and the evidence of past NZ national party campaigns suggests that this will not happen.
Eh!? You're saying there was no wedge politics in National's campaign last time? "Mainstream"? Iwi/Kiwi? Race-based policies? One law for all?
Were you otherwise occupied?
Hager had it this way:
And then you get into the election campaign where they were planning to win over the votes of what they called “the punters” or what Brash called “the punters out in punter land”. And here you get a sense of the cynicism of this little leadership group, planning a campaign which the rest of the National Party had nothing to do with. Even the rest of the National MPs had little idea what was going on. They brought in their Australian experts, a company called Crosby Textor. You can see the way that these strategy advisors – I've got the reports – planned the language that could be used by Don Brash and the other MPs, to win over these supposedly “dumb” middle voters. They weren’t targeting the people who might be sympathetic to National normally, or who might be sympathetic to Labour, they were targeting the people who they believed weren’t interested in politics. And they were figuring out what they called “mantra” of words that might get through to the prejudices of those people or might get past the more conscious beliefs of those people and turn them around to voting for National.
They conducted focus groups, and said things like: “So what do you think of the current Labour government?”. “Oh they’re quite good, I’m quite happy at the moment”. “Well, say you were just saying any things where you’re not happy with Helen Clark and the Labour government, just even the vaguest…if you were trying to say anything where you were not quite happy with Helen Clark, what would you say about this?”. And they’d harvest these vague, tentative ideas. They actually said in their reports that these ideas do not exist yet in the public, and they’re totally tentative, but with watering and nurturing, we can build these ideas into stuff which will be used against the Government. So you see the tactics they use and then remember the “Iwi Kiwi” ads and the “Taxathon” ads. The book documents the internal discussions and the strategy meetings where they planned why they would use particular words and how they were doing it. At each step of the election, the focus was on these “dumb people” who they were manipulating into voting National.
I'm never 100% down with Hager, but that has a certain resonance.
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However, as far as "The Mood" goes Key's less that straight forward performance under a grilling from Havoc is pretty damaging, IMHO. So many ways he could have dealt with this issue other than the one he chose. The contrast with Clark on a similar topic is stark.
Well, Don, Clark straight-forwardly told an untruth in the House last week, and one she feels absolutely no need to withdraw or apologise for. But that doesn't matter, right?
Unfortunately, I feel less relaxed about a National-led government than I did a month ago.
And a few months ago, I was cautiously optimistic that this election campaign season wasn't going to a bullshit-a-palooza. Guess we're both going to have to get used to disappointment.
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Well, Don, Clark straight-forwardly told an untruth in the House last week, and one she feels absolutely no need to withdraw or apologise for. But that doesn't matter, right?
No, it does matter. But Key's performance in that interview was weird and -- as ever -- evasive.
C'mon Craig, how do you really feel about Key?
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Russell
Christchurch and Dunedin are not the wops, wops
You, of all people know thatBut I think you will find that even in Chch the next polls will show a swing away from Labour
Time will tell of course -
I think you're right. They needed fresh talent and a plan for a fresh orientation immediately after winning three years ago.
Indeed - it feels to me like the NZ electorate needs fresh "step-change" approaches (not necessarily step-change action, but step-change views) every 2.5 terms or so. This helps explain the distinct lack of 4 term governments (Howard had "been there forever" for example).
But it must be extraordinarly difficult for a sitting Government to present those views - part complacency/part belief-in-their-own-views/part "well we've got all these policies in now, lets use them for a bit"...And it's those people that C/T (via the Hager filter) were going after with Brash - not at all fussed about the colour on the rosette, but with an itching sense that something needs to happen.
Frankly, I'm one of them... -
Craig, Posted at 4:46PM on 7 Jul 08.
I agree, mostly because for the first time in almost ever I am probably not voting Labour (voted Greens once). I think I am doing this for rational reasons, mostly concerning the EFA and possible ETS. I don't think I am acting as part of some damn meme, at least not one based on a "it's time has come" theme.
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Unfortunately, I feel less relaxed about a National-led government than I did a month ago.
You felt relaxed? I'm looking at the front bench and it's feeling like back to the 90s. Katherine Rich was a great loss. No doubt Key will be ok with some good guidance but where is that going to come from? McCully?
Which brings us to Crosby Textor. Commentators seem to be overlooking the obvious point that National are going to great lengths to hide their association with the Aussies. That's surely more the issue, given their allegedly unsavoury behind the scenes involvement last time around according to Hollow Men (down, Craig). Doesn't really matter whether they will actually do anything dodgy, the perception is that National are being less than trustworthy - just like the perception that Labour are nannying and not keeping prices down.
Voters are not stupid but nor are we rational.
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Interesting interview with Havoc. Thanks.
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I don't believe the mood for change (of Government) would be so prevalent if Labour had stayed fresh and with an ongoing vision.
I think you're right. They needed fresh talent and a plan for a fresh orientation immediately after winning three years ago.
RB, do you really think if Clark had replaced most of the front bench then, but leaving Cullen there, and brought in the anti-smacking bill etc, things would be different now? I don't think so.
People are not dumb, contrary to what Craig says, but once they have a snitch against you it is very hard to shift.
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Craig, was that a change in topic? Just wondering.
Well, Don, Clark straight-forwardly told an untruth in the House last week, and one she feels absolutely no need to withdraw or apologise for.
But to address your swift change of subject, you got all hot and bothered about that "untruth" and made some pretty wild eyed accusations (which you now repeat). Then you yourself failed to apologise when it turned out that Key had asked questions in the house about Toll as a shareholder, which was, after all, Clark's point.
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Christchurch and Dunedin are not the wops, wops
You, of all people know thatYes we are. And proud of it. Well we don't eat this.
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I talked to someone involved in an electorate campaign for Labour at the beginning of the year -- they mentioned strong signs of "mortgage belt poverty" coming up in polling in places like the North Shore. I guess it makes sense that the most over-extended people will feel the strongest sense of grievance in a credit crunch.
And it's interesting, isn't it, just who isn't getting blamed or scapegoated here. Mortgage-holders and credit-card-debtors aren't, it seems, looking sideways at the banks that enticed them to take on debt in the first place. Those complaining about the price of food and petrol aren't thinking about who owns the supermarkets and the fuel pumps, or the role of commodity traders in creating speculative bubbles in those markets.
No, clearly it's all the Government's fault. And I love how the solution to the problems caused by (among other things) rampant and poorly regulated speculation in the finance markets is to elect a government with a former currency trader as its head. I guess it makes sense, in a topsy-turvy, Hegelian kind of way.
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I was scoffed at last week when I said that the Labour were out of touch
But that is what it feels like out in the wops, wopsThe thing about the wop wops is that no-one lives there, which means that electorally, they don't matter now that we have MMP.
Harsh, but true.
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Oddly enough, the last Fairfax poll, iirc, has Labour ahead in Christchurch and Dunedin -- it's Auckland where they're really dying.
I don't know if you should take that much out of Labour being ahead in Dunedin. I think Dunedin North & South are pretty much the definition of 'safe seat' in NZ politics.
Relative to how far ahead they were in the last election would be a more interesting poll.
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RB, do you really think if Clark had replaced most of the front bench then, but leaving Cullen there, and brought in the anti-smacking bill etc, things would be different now? I don't think so.
Except that they didn't "bring in the anti-smacking bill"; it was Sue Bradford's private member's bill, and, as I noted, it eventually won overwhelming support in the House. I know that's not what people think, but it is what happened.
The Herald editorial today cited it too:
Nobody should be surprised, or particularly outraged, if the consultants have schooled National to avoid the subject. If they are astute, they will also ensure the party does not rule it out. Once in office, parties invariably do things in the public interest that would not be popular in an election campaign. Labour gave no hint at the last election that it was going to ban smacking or smother political speech with financial restrictions and red tape.
It is naive to imagine election campaigns are candid affairs. Voters have to keep a keen ear to what the campaigns are not saying as much as what they choose to say. Assessments have to be made on inference, intuition, common sense and trust, as well as the performance of the protagonists under criticism and constant public scrutiny for several intense weeks.
This is disingenuous. Labour "gave no hint" it was to "ban smacking" because it had no policy to. It made a decision, as, eventually, did most of the House, to support a Green MP's member's bill.
And it did, directly after the 2005 election (and even in the latter stages of the campaign), undertake to address what it regarded as undemocratic influences on the election process. What it neglected to say was what a pig's arse it was going to make out of the job.
Neither of those is the same as knowing full well what your policy is, but refusing to divulge it in case people don't vote for you.
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__Sorry guys, but I cannot think of that quote - could you please pass it on?__
I'm damned if I can find the exact wording, but Bolger is reputed to have mused ...
Ah ... you should have an autographed copy of his autobiography then.
Page 177:
Parliamentary colleagues approached me and said, 'Don't rule out the race card, Jim. We may need it to win in 1990 yet.' I recall my answer: 'Playing the race card may help us win - then come monday how do we run the country?' They had no answer.
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The anti-smacking bill should be scrapped, and replaced with the repeal of section 59 act .
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I am much more scared of some of the raving mouth-frothers on "Your Views", than I am of being a victim of crime.
"I can think of nothing better than some low life american style gangster wanna-be getting a good karate kick to the bollocks for his efforts!"
"Shoot twice, once in their head and once in the ceiling and let the cops figure out which one you shot first."
"Only way to cut down on crime, is to beat the living crap out of the perps yourself"
"The next time it happens, I wish I catch the person, take a baseball bat and beat the crap out of him."
"I suggets we enpower the miltary, round up these tattoo covered scumbags and murders and rapists and line them up against a wall and shoot the lot of them." -
Oddly enough, the last Fairfax poll, iirc, has Labour ahead in Christchurch and Dunedin -- it's Auckland where they're really dying.
In an ironic reversal of the 1970s, where Muldoon could stay in power by fucking the country for rural electorates, while it appears National may be able to get into power by appealing to a similarly narrow constituency.
C'mon Craig, how do you really feel about Key?
Evasive.
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The thing about the wop wops is that no-one lives there, which means that electorally, they don't matter now that we have MMP.
Harsh, but true.Cut the Cable! Indpendence for the South Island!
Lets see how far your spendthrift coal fired electricity ways get you when the hydro and wind power vanishes. That'll learn you to vote for the wrong govt. Varmints....
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Sorry, living in SNP governed Scotland has me in a time warp. Still.
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I wonder, if someone in a PPPP on P charges is paroled, does that make them a P6?
LOL :-) and if they are paroled to their parents,P8 and god forbid if they live in Papakura! P9
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Eh!? You're saying there was no wedge politics in National's campaign last time? "Mainstream"? Iwi/Kiwi? Race-based policies? One law for all?
Come on Russell, do you expect elections to be lovey dovey. They are nasty, ego driven affairs, and we can both expect our liberal sensibilities to be hurt. We will all vote accordingly. But this stuff about thenats advisers is BS. Are the SST trying the balance out the Herald?
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Evasive.
Rodgerd: Give the respect of not presuming to speak for me, or this is going to be a very painful campaign season. He's not a slick operator, I've said loud and clear that he's certainly neither fiscally conservative nor socially liberal enough for my liking, but FFS he's no more the anti-Christ than Clark is. Is that direct enough for you, smart-arse?
But to address your swift change of subject, you got all hot and bothered about that "untruth" and made some pretty wild eyed accusations (which you now repeat). Then you yourself failed to apologise when it turned out that Key had asked questions in the house about Toll as a shareholder, which was, after all, Clark's point.
Sorry, Don, I'm not a fucking psychic and I'm not going to "apologise" for making a simple statement of fact that Clark's initial allegations were WRONG. Find a comic book geek who can explain the phrase "retcon" to you. Even better, get onto the National Radio website and let Lila Harre (that well known Tory sock puppet) explain Reality 101 to you -- the fiscal probity of an MP is a perfectly legitimate line of inquiry, but if you're going to make allegations of corruption you've just got to get ALL your facts right. She didn't, and you really need to deal with this particular partisan psychosis. Though it's fine with me if Clark doesn't -- another wild and easily busted dip into the dirt file in the final week of the campaign should do the trick.
Come on Russell, do you expect elections to be lovey dovey.
Can speak for the Brown-ster, but I certainly don't. The difference is, larry, reality and plain common decency shouldn't be expected to take a holiday either.
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BTW, Russell, if you want to talk about "wedge politics" I'll quite happily kick in the first fifty bucks to hire a triad enforcer to gut anyone who decides to dog whistle the prospect of race riots if National wins the election. That would put me in a very, very bad "mood" indeed.
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