Posts by James Green
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Hi David,
I've had (I think), a pretty reasonable hack at the Dunedin Central ward (original analysis), and more extended post. Looking forward to seeing the final count out tomorrow, although I don't expect anything much will change.
Also, on the redistribution of surplus votes from successful candidates, I think its pretty clear on the graph. -
Well, that doesn't count. But is there something inherently wrong with the business model that finance companies adhere to?
Again, I'm not personally interested, I'm just wondering if this can be done right?Curiously (especially with someone suggesting back a few pages that the returns were so high), there is a strong school of thought that the returns were low relative to actual risk. That a ~2% premium to bank deposits did not really reflect what people were buying into. Now I'm not saying that an additional 2% is not something to be sneezed at at all. But that they imply a far lower level of risk than really existed.
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if South Canterbury Finance has poor record keeping, poor lending policies, questionable governance and probably lacks the financial resources to pay back its investors then
There are multiple entities involved with Hubbard, of which South Canterbury Finance is one. You are confusing, I think, some of the allegations related to Aorangi Securities etc. with SCF. SCF is publically listed, whereas some of the other entities exist in greyer areas, where there is far less regulation, and they are not included in the guarantee scheme.
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Indeed Rich. The fact that cycling is the solution there rather than the problem can easily be seen with the changes to Esmonde Rd. There's all those extra lanes, which apparently are great, but it just seems to make it easier to join into the next queue. I look at the 'improved' situation, and think, so glad I live in Dunedin and can walk to work.
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Curiously, I still parse mine to mean what I wanted to say, and yours as the opposite. (I read a great post on a graduate student's love of their specific bit of pragmatics that lead to them finding this stuff fascinatin).
FWIW, as a somewhat frequent visitor to the Shore these days, I don't see it as at all cycle friendly. There are a lot of big angry car roads that I'd chose not to bike down, and quite a lot of little valleys and hills, although there are some bits that would be brilliant. And lots of windy roads that don't make it easy to get from A to B. On the other hand, the traffic is soooo bad at peak times, it might be tempting if I lived there.
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SHORE's website navigation is disastrous (not my first time struggling to find something I know is there). No link from the walkability project page. On the publications page, it's not under Transport, but under Social Determinants of Heath, and then into neighbourhoods. Intuitive eh?
Page 148 of this doc is pretty cool as well. Census figures on travelling to work. The only parts of Auckland where under 75% of people don't travel to work by car are:
*Takapuna Central
*Devonport
*CBD
*Innermost suburbs (Ponsonby, Parnell) and perhaps slightly further afield. -
Heat's one. Some people I know swear blind that they overheat when they wear helmets, particularly in summer. I personally think that's because they haven't tried any reasonably modern helmets, where the venting is designed to help direct the airflow to keep you cool - but it's a potential reason.
Admission. I habitually wear a cycle helmet BUT if I'm grinding up to a saddle at about 5km/h in Central Otago in summer, there is bugger all airflow for ventilation, and I'll happily swing my helmet from the handlebars. Always put it on before starting and descent of course. Also, I stopped cycle commuting after a concussion and hand grating.
the introduction of Japanese used car imports
There is also a secondary wave related to this. It took not quite a decade after the introduction of Japanese imports for these to filter down in numbers to the $500 car class. In the mid-late 90s, students (including myself) were still buying NZ new cars from the 70s (so 20 odd years old) whose value had held up surprisingly well.
Somewhat relatedly, it amused me that my first two cars' combined cost was less than the bike I owned at the time. -
I'm not sure I'd let my children watch that even once. It sounds terrifying.
Bound to be more than a few R18 scenes in Tory Story too...
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I had a bit of a poke on www.statisphere.govt.nz and while I didn't find any good cycle use stats over time, it's interesting that there seems to have been a real reduction in the number of cyclist deaths between 2003 and 2006, although in the grand scheme of things they are still very uncommon. Unfortunately, that period just seems aberrant for some reason.
And this is cycled in the last 12 months data but there is a substantial increase from 1997 to 2007/8.
And a related point: Has cycling increasingly become an 'activity' as opposed to 'transport'? I think this applies to physical activity in general, but it seems more something a subset of people set out to do, as opposed to it being part of life. So for cycling, fewer people going to work or nipping down to the shops by bike, but more people getting changed, driving somewhere, and then starting to cycle. I also wonder if a greater proportion of modern day cycle commuters also treat it as a thing. So different clothes to cycle to work in, possibly a shower at work, and maybe more aim that the commute should fit a notion of exercise. Trouser clips are out, and lycra is in.
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The UK figures (Office of Population Censuses and Surveys) rate tennis as four times more dangerous than cycling, horse-riding as 29 times more dangerous, and fishing as 41 times more dangerous (per capita per hour). I can't find such figures for NZ, alas.
There was an analysis of ACC claims, claim value and fatalities in the NZMJ, but it's only of adventure activities. So cycling per se isn't included. Mountain-biking is more dangerous, but Horse Riding is still worse (where it is common to where helmets, but which don't appear to offer much protection). Fishing and Moutaineering are top of the pops for fatalities, but I assume there would be more road cycling deaths than mountain biking deaths. Perhaps if I was being good, I'd go check out ACC, as it might be the place to look*.
*I participated in a telephone survey today asking about govt statistics. In addition to my survey keen-ness, I think the interviewer was also surprised by how much I use govt statistics. Always nice to be an outlier in someone else's data.