Posts by Lyndon Hood
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No word on what the 'crime' in the criminal investigation might be?
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I haven't found a canocical list, but I'll mention that, in general terms, the presence of party leaders at these things is not new.
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Their press release came with a letterhead that matched the top bit of that poster. I have to say it triggered my nationalism alarm.
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I think the orange man has been following the same media Graeme has.
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Yet “The matched samples were identical in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, type of offence and number of previous convictions so that the effectiveness of each kind of sentence could be compared for the first time.”
So the study basically (as far as I can tell) assumed that, beyond those factors, intial risk vs sentence was random. That may or may not be a push, but those are the kind of factors (admittedly not a complete list of them) that NZ uses for our risk assessments.
I appreciate the angle, but I’d be finding more about the study before making sweeping dismissals. And I honestly can’t think of a better to compare methods of punishment per se.
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however, that the new paradigm for dealing with statistics , peer-reviewed research etc amongst politicians (especially my personal favourite, the Attorney General of WA) is to blithely state “I don’t accept that”
Here was me thinking John Key had come up with that by himself.
Further link: Rotorua Perceptions of Safety Survey. I think perceptions actually can be a problem - for people's wellbeing or economic activity - but I have the idea the problems and the solutions don't tend to have much to do with actual crime.
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And of course, via the Goldacre link I think I can thank this forum for on proper trails for policy, Reoffending rates higher after short jail terms, study finds.
The first authoritative analysis of the effectiveness of different sentences shows that longer prison sentences of two to four years – which allow time to tackle offending behaviour – are more effective than jail terms of under 12 months, during which inmates are simply warehoused.
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So pending further info I'll maintain my suspicion that in Becroft's letter any 'success' in the Fresh Start was administrative (apart from anything [or everything] else they haven't been going that long) and when asked if they could be expanded he said, "that is indeed possible".
And he also mentioned some other programmes that really are working.
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Incidentally, it's partly just me being lazy, but has anyone sighted the actual Becroft letter about youth justice that Key tabled? I can't shake the idea comments on different bits of the system are being confused in the reporting I saw.
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For completeness: Workman to McVicar, which mentions a rather dry Andrew Becroft paper which I’d only heard of recently: How To Turn A Child Offender Into An Adult Criminal – In 10 Easy Steps.