Posts by simon g
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Sarah Palin has "limited political experience", TV One commentator informs us. So now you know.
In the background, there's an election being decided. FFS.
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They've called Pennsylvania for Obama. Or have we already done that. That's big.
Somebody tell Paul Henry. It's like the Olympics all over again on TV One. Who needs live information when you've got chat?
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This is what Labour should be doing.
Exposing John Key on policy. Crazy idea, I know, but it just might work.
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Susan
National's sudden discovery of Old Left policies is the most extraordinary feature of this campaign. The Dim-Post skewered them (and their cheerleaders) very well recently:
http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2008/10/19/business-leaders-hail-keys-new-economic-policy/
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Kyle, there could be 5% of wasted votes (Winston plus Kiwi, Family etc). So 47.5% = 50%.
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He believes Maori Party are genuinely preparing themselves to do a deal with National, and the hui will be as much a farce as they were last time. The grass roots will say "go with Labour", Turia will stand up and say "this is why we are going with National", and that's what will happen.
So, looking ahead, in 2009 we'll have:
- a Parliament with Roger Douglas and without Winston Peters
- the Maori Party "going with" National (probably means abstaining and allowing, but the nuances won't let them off the hook)
- a National government promising a Change and getting a Crisis
- a referendum on Bradford's law and all the inevitable fallout in the National caucus
- and (not least) by the next election, the demise of most of the alternatives to voting Labour (Dunne, Peters, Anderton, Maori Party)Phil Goff has planned all this, hasn't he?
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Sofie
I think you should vote for who you really support, rather than take a tactical risk. But that's your call.
You might find this useful: put in your own views, and see where the parties stand. It's good fun!
http://glassbooth.org/home/election/5/
Personally, I think there's a hell of a difference between a tactical vote for a party that is close to my views (e.g. second preference) and voting for a party that is way off - as NZ First would be, for me. You gotta still respect yourself in the morning.
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I'm voting left, but I'd still bet right.
That is: to form a government. Odds on the government lasting 3 years, around 5-1. On John Key lasting that long: 100-1.
On t'other hand, if NZ First is in, and Clark gets her monster, the Nats can romp home next time.
But in either case, instant gratification will beat long-term strategy. Not least because the interests of the parties and the needs of the leaders have very different time-frames.
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So the overhanger-on has just announced that he will graciously permit National to form a coalition with him. TVNZ reports:
Dunne says he has not told Labour leader Helen Clark of the decision, and nor will he stand down from his current post as Minister of Revenue.
Man of principle, as ever.
It is not clear how this will affect United's Future, as the party's voter was out when the media called.
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Angus.
If "more than half of people vote for a government", they will get it.
Every realistic scenario shows this. And National know it.