Posts by Marcus Turner
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Sorry if you've already seen this: it's great!
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-political-brain
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Lew Stoddart,
Thanks Lew,
I'll find out more about Drew Westen and George Lakoff.
Regarding the more recent discussions concerning the rights and responsibilities of voters: is it likely that the level of knowledge about policies etc. - at a population level - is likely to change? Is there much precedent for this?
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I notice that many people in this discussion seem to know a heck of a lot more about the inner workings of the two main parties – and politics in general – than I do.* In the predawn glimmer of an upcoming election, I’d like to ask about the effect of swinging votes.
It seems to me that each party has a core of voters who always vote for that party, out of principle or prejudice. The government can only change if (1) there’s some change in the contract between parties that make up the government (2) non-voters decide to vote (or vice-versa) or (3) voters change their allegiance.
To what extent is each of these phenomena likely to affect the outcome of the next election? (Is it true, for example, that a higher voter-turnout tends to favour parties of the left? Is there some research on this?)
To what extent do swinging-voters vote in their own personal interest, and to what extent do they vote in accordance with their understanding of the principles and policies of the parties? Is there much research on this? (Are swinging voters better-informed about politics than most of us?)
Overall, to what extent are election strategies aimed at the self-interest of swinging voters? I have this image in my mind of a democracy’s fate being decided by the self-interest of a few, no matter how the majority of party-loyal voters (principled or prejudiced) cast their ballots.
I’m sure there are challenges in measuring these properties, but analogous qualities seem to able be quantified for statistical studies of other social and psychological phenomena.
To someone who’s studied this sort of thing, my questions might seem naïve but, as far as I can see, factors such as how the leader of a party is perceived by swing-voters are just as likely to affect a party’s likelihood of achieving the treasury benches, as the thought given to its principles and policies.
I guess policy discussions within a party are aimed at appealing to party members and followers, according to ideals and ideology. To what extent are swinging-voters taken into account when policies are discussed?
I realise there are a lot of questions here but (1) some of you seem to know quite a lot about this sort of thing and (2) our lives are affected by it, whether we’re “into politics” or not.
*I do wonder if correspondents are sometimes trying to give this impression, when it’s not in fact the case.
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Goat stampede
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Tangentially to all this, I've just finished reading Ben Goldacre's "Bad Science". Have any of the Aspergers/autistic spectrum people, or members of their families on the list, read this? Goldacre lays responsibility for the "MMR scare" firmly at the feet of people associated with media - as distinct from the particular researcher at the centre of the controversy.
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Oh, I can't wait 'til Friday. Here it is:
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Hard News: The digital switch-off, in reply to Andre,
No problem. Perhaps you thought my post had something to do with yours. I just posted it then, 'cos I found it then. Couldn't think of a better place to put it.
In my observation, this is a pretty good list for civilised argument, and my views have been challenged and changed simply by reading posts here. But I have noticed barbs. In my experience, these are usually some way of saying "ouch", but sometimes have the effect of being an attack on someone else (who then says "ouch" in a damaging way, and so it continues - except when we learn to break the cycle).
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I'm not looking at anyone. I just found this article on dealing with trolls (for future reference).
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Going to see this guy tonight:
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Therapy.