Posts by James Bremner
Last ←Newer Page 1 2 3 4 5 Older→ First
-
To those who said they admired my enthusiasm for someone I only heard of yesterday, sorry, I first heard of Palin a several years ago when she ran against Murkowski (sp?), the incumbent Governor of Alaska, of her own party in a primary, and won. A bit of an eyebrow raiser, to say the least. Read about her a good number of times, she has been compared as a reformer with Jindal, our Governor here in Louisiana. Seen her on TV a couple of times over the last 6 months or so, CNBC I think, interviews with Maria Bartiromo and Larry Kudlow talking about energy ploicy. Very plausable and intelligent. So, no, I had sufficient prior knowledge on which to base my enthusiasm.
Another old boring white guy would have been a snoozer for McCain. He has been looking at people like Pawlenty and Jindal for a while, so it shouldn't have been a total surprise that he would go for someone outside the box like Palin.
McCain would have been stupid to ignore the 25% of women who are undecided, when only 5% of men are still undecided. And no, that is not to suggest the women's vote is monolythic, but just that it is politics after all. Obama has a problem with woman voters, McCain is smart to try to exploit it.
Everyday the discussion is about experience, is a happy day for McCain. Palin has 2 years as a successful Governor who got some stuff done which is more than Obama can say, and he is the top of the ticket, and Palin the bottom. Lack of experience is the last thing Obama wants to talk about.
So lets see how she does over the next 2 months and either I will be eating crow or a number of others here will. I really think she is an exciting political talent who is going to do well on the campaign trail. I can't wait for her to mix it up with Biden, he is a nice guy, but he cant stop sticking his foot in his mouth even in a no pressure situation, he is a ballsup waiting to happen. But Palin is the under card so there is only so much she can do. But if things are close, it might be the difference.Bloody Gustav's a cat 5 now. Shit. Not what we need. Hitting the road at dawn.
-
Palin is a great choice as VP. She is very intelligent and articulate, has a great life story and apparently is one tough customer (she took and took down the local political machine in Alaska)
A smart pick as 25% of woman are undecided at this stage, v only 5% of men, but she is no token female. I wont make a prediction as to who will win the election, but I will confidently predict that Palin will make a horses ass out of Joe Biden between now and Nov 4. That VP debate will be fun to watch, she is very quick on her toes and has great recall of facts and detail. "Slow Joe' Biden is going to get creamed. Another prediction, Biden will stick his foot in his mouth trying to go after Palin.
Palin has energized conservatives who were having a hard time getting to like McCain. I just read on line that the McCain campaign raised $4m on line yesterday. They had never raised more than $1m in a day previously. This enthusiam will help the GOTV efforts as well, vital in a close election.
The contrast with Obama is striking. While he is a graduate of the nastiest and most corrupt political machine in the US, the Dem Chicago machine with its horrible cast of characters, Palin took on and beat the corrupt Repub state political machine in her state. While Obama has spent about 150 days in the Senate and has no achievements there, in 20 months as Governor Palin has gotten a lot done in Alaska including rigourous ethics reform and negotiating a major gas pipe line with Canada. While based on Illinois Senate transcripts Obama cares more about the legal liability of abortionists and couldn't care less about the welfare of a baby born alive after an abortion gone wrong ("whatever it is"), Palin knew about and gave birth to a baby boy with Down's syndrome.
She is going to impress the hell out of people. She will quickly grow into the role of VP, as a President in waiting, and could definately step up to be President. It is easy to see her as the first woman President sometime in the future.
She will give the Barry campaign a major headache. How to attack another woman without giving the significant number of already pissed off women voters an even better reason to vote McCain Palin?Enough of politics. Time to evacuate for Gustav. We really don't need another big hurricane right now. Looks like the State and City have got ther acts much more together this time in terms of preparation. Jindal is another bright cookie who shines in the spotlight. So much better off with him than Blanco
-
Craig,
That is the one big thing McCain has going for him, the possibility that he will make a serious attempt to cut back out of control federal spending and corrupting earmarks (both of which have accelerated since the Dems won Congress in 2006). Obama most definately wont make any attempt to control spending, he will accelerate it further by pissing lots of someone elses money on every liberal itch in the universe. McCain's a crusty old bastard who doesn't mind in the least pissing people off, just what is needed for that particular task. How I would love to see him fighting the porkmeisters and spendaholics of Congress.Some interesting polling data. Not surprising really.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109846/Conservative-Democrats-Peeling-Away-From-Obama.aspxAnd well done for pointing out the obvious that so many cant grasp or don't want to admit, that 8 years as a first lady does not qualify one for President.
RB, it is one thing to point out problems that you think need to be addressed in your country, but quite another to denouce your country as "down right mean" and many other such epithets. Especially when Americans, far from being mean are actually by far the most generous in the world by many measures, such as charitiable giving. And then in a big speech you say what a great country that "down right mean" country is and that you love it. Bullshit. In and of itself not a huge deal, but it is another data point that contradicts Obama's narrative.
-
Can anyone explain to me why people get so incensed about us signing an FTA with China, but desperately want us to get one with the US? I know all the human rights issues, but, really, is the US that much better?
The US not much different to China in terms of human rights? For fuck's sake, don't be such a loser.
How many protestors are there in Denver right now? Plenty. Try protesting outside the next Chinese Communist Party's People's Congress in Beijing and see how it goes for you. -
The most notable aspect of Michelle Obama's speech last night was how different it was from the many, many speeches she gave during the primary season, leading up to her "for the first time in my life I am proud of America" clanger. According to Michelle back then America was a terrible place, overflowing with misery and suffering, but last night it was a real swell place and she loves it. Many people will not fail to note the contrast and wonder for a moment which version is the one she actually believes. When they remember that she sat in Rev Wright's Church for 20 years, they will realize what she really thinks.
It is close alright. Who knows which way it will go. For a lot of reasons you would expect the Dem to be quite well ahead this year. That they aren't should give Obama's advisors a lot of sleepless nights.
-
Tony,
So a 2000 acre development on a coastal plain is going to impact an area the size of South Carolina? I mean, please.Massive development in Alaska, less than 16% unimpacted? Is that a joke? Have you ever been to Alaska? It is so huge its hard to describe. Do you include "impacted" as having been flown over by a plane at least once within the last 50 years.
And yes, 10% of US supply is very worthwhile. There are no magic bullets out there, some increased production here, some conservation there and some new technology over there, US energy policy needs to grow and be an "all of the above" effort. And btw, some of the strongest proponents of drilling in ANWAR are Alaskans themselves.
-
RB,
Good to see you are reading Stratfor. I have subscribed to them for years (2002 I think) They are big picture thinkers who have a lot of good contacts in all manner of obscure places, so they are well worth reading.
Not saying I agree with everything they write, but they are a very good input into understanding any geopolitical issue. Vastly superior to any MSM outlet, and most blogs.
Georgia is a great move for Putin in so many ways as Strator outlines. Not much at all the US can do, makes the US and Europe look weak, scares the shit out of FSU and Eastern European countries, and regains complete control of oil & gas leaving the Central Asian region.
Putin will be very pleased that Georgia took his bait. -
Simon,
Poor darling, did I upset your delicate senses? How sad. Don't take life so seriosuly, its tedious.
BTW we are in agreement on the Ukraine. Very strange, but there it is.
I did not, nor has anyone of which I am aware suggested or implied Russian tanks will be rolling over Eastern Europe. They don't need to. Putin has already done all of the following: turning off the gas or oil in winter, a bit of polonium here or there, some of the stuff that they tried to kill Yushenko with, thrown his oponents in jail on made up charges, potted a few journalists, and now he has invaded a country with the apparent intention to take it over. None of that is a right wing fantasy, each has already happened.I was amused to see your reference to the UK and the USA green lighting Stalin's tanks into Eastern Europe (as if they had much choice). I wouldn't have thought a leftie would want to open the door on that sad chapter of history, of Roosevelt's liking of Stalin, "Uncle Joe", and how he thought he could influence Stalin by being nice to him and having a few nice chats. The same man who had just killed 20 or 30 million of his own people.
What is is about liberals and lefties that makes them think horrid bastards and mass murderers will become putty in their hands with a nice chat or two? Roosevelt thought that, so did Carter and now Barry is picking up that batton again. I mean to say, WTF? Why can't libs learn from history?
-
Tony,
I am for all energy options. Conservation, ethanol, hybrids, electic vehicles and increased domestic production.
The US has more reserves than 20B barrels, a lot of the OCS hasn't had seismic done yet, so who knows how much is out there. Due to the price elasticity of oil, the US would only need to reduce its imports of of oil by 2 or 3 million barrels a day to have quite an impact on the price of oil. During the Asian contagen of the late 90s, demand for oil fell 10%, the price fell by 75%This is a good summary of drilling options available:
http://www.reason.com/news/show/128096.html
As for the environmental aspect, follow this link to get an idea of the BS spread about ANWAR
http://reasonbellpundit.blogspot.com/2008/06/pictures-of-anwr-to-make-case-for.html
As for the American love affair with the car, no it wont go away any time soon, and why the hell would it? Am I going to wait for a bus in 35 C heat and 95% humidity? Fuck that. The US is a big big country and cities are big. In higher density cites metros work, but not in most cities. Cars are a necessity. Lets have more fuel efficient cars, great. But if you are upset about increasing oil consumption right now, get pissed off at the Chinese and Indians, not the Yanks.
-
Simon,
Surprising as it feels we appear to be in significant agreement. It certainly seems as if Georgia is the first of a number of Eastern European and Central Asian countries that are about to feel the reassertion of the Russia of old, reinvigorated under Vlad the Nasty. Not good at all, for anyone, except Vlad and his buddies.Ukraine's Yushenko needs to be very careful, he has a very large Russian minority in his country. It would not be difficult at all for Vlad to engineer a collapse of Yushenko's regime.
Bush / Obama / McCain have not much they can do, beyond a few slaps on the wrist (G8 to G7, no WTO etc.) The US needs Russia right now on Iran at the UN and to not sell weapons to them.
I see that the US and Poland have suddenly signed the BMD agreement to place interceptors in Poland, and Poland insists on having US soldiers stationed with them, which they would see as an implicit security guarantee. Look for a bigger US presence in Romania soon aswell.
Vlad is not a fluff and BS kind of guy. One of the few things that will hurt Russia, is if the price of oil dropped a lot. One of the few ways to make that happen is for the US to start drilling for oil domestically on a significant basis. With the way things are shaping up in the US and in D.C right now that may well happen. Congress has to vote to reaffirm the ban by Sept 30. if they don’t it automatically lapses. You would want to be in a very, very safe Dem seat to vote against domestic drilling right now.