Posts by Paul Brislen
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@Poolester
Not implying you're young. Why just this week I've been called middle aged. Harumph. Just that I too remember the Dark Days.
But don't lose hope - the head of Chorus doesn't have the final say on the matter. That's why it's important we don't undo all the LLU work that's FINALLY producing a result only, what, seven years after it was first proposed. Any FibreCo will take a decade to deliver - what are we going to do in the mean time? We're going to use the copper and make better use of it and if Telecom wants to offer a service then it's welcome to join in.
Sorry... soap box. Not an official view. Better stop now. Gah, this is hard.
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Ah, the complete company split approach. Years ago I interviewed an interesting fellow from the Gallagher Group called John Third who advocated just that: network company would earn low rates of return but sure and steady... retail would be freed from the cost of supporting the network company for its high rates of risk and return.
It's a great model. It makes a lot of sense, but you still need a customer willing to buy service (presumably a three tier model - network, wholesale, retail, or two-tier, network/retail) and that's going to cost more than $150/month I would think.
http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/news/ECBD4FBC63F7686FCC25715D007DC4F6
for those interested in the darkest deepest history.
Of course, Telecom called me a communist when I suggested it. Rod Drury suggests it and he's a visionary! Timing is so very important. -
Heh, you're a spring chicken. I got my first full rate ADSL connection from Telecom back in the day (2000) and it came with a whopping 600MB of data A MONTH!
One month I foolishly downloaded a Windows update for both PC AND work laptop. Boy, the editor was ropable at the cost.
To this day Telecom still advertises JetStream 30,000 wherein you can buy a full speed up/full speed down connection with 30GB of data for only $2400 Plus GST a month. Link here: https://www.telecom.co.nz/form/1,3905,4468-1424,00.html
although I doubt anyone's buying that particular plan.I did have a good shouting match with Simon Moutter about it once - he refused to accept that Telecom ever sold such a plan. He refused to look at the laptop when I showed it to him. Good times.
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@Rich, Oh sure it is... but I'm curious what people who seem to actually care about such things would pay.
The assumption seems to be that customers who receive a faster connection speed will pay more for it. That's not true in my experience, instead they (we) say things like "finally I'm getting what I've been paying for all along" or similar.
The idea behind the Institute FibreCo model, and the National Party's fibre build, is that there will be a greater return on investment (As I understand it - someone tell me if I'm wrong) than is currently the case. I just don't see that happening.
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@Matthew - No, I'm not joking. I don't think there's an ISP in NZ today offers a 100GB plan. I can't see one offering one with that large a cap any time soon.
I do hear what you're saying - with a family each member downloading movies, TV, surfing, working and saturating the link, you're going to hit 100GB at a run... but the wholesale service on offer today simply isn't up for it.
And I think you're proving the point for those that don't like the National party fibre plan. If you're willing to pay that little but want more than 100GB, there is no business case for fibre to the home. We're talking about a $6bn investment here... that's got to pay a return or we'll be digging up the streets twice, the second time to remove all the lines.
I don't see a way round it - if you want to invest that much it needs to generate a return on the investment.
I'm no economist - anyone want to tell me why I'm wrong? Personally I'd love fibre to the home. Wave division multiplexing is a glorious thing. In the mean time I'll "settle" for VDSL2+ with only 50/20 but I can't see it coming with a 100GB cap.
Still not an official comment. Just me.
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So the consensus seems to be about the 50Mbit/s down and similar up... which is nice (momentarily puts Vodafone hat on) as we're hopefully introducing a VDSL2+ service this year that will do just that (frisbees hat into the the corner again).
Several years ago now I met a nice chap from Ericsson who had recently commissioned a study into Adelaide and the potential economic net benefit of doing FttH as we called it then. Much like the Institute work, it concluded that the city would make a net benefit in a relatively short time frame. Of course, everyone poo-poohed it at the time because Of Course They Say That, Ericsson funded the study...
One thing he pointed out was that broadband demand increases exponentially so this year 1Mbit/s a second is OK, next year (well, he had an 18 month cycle as I recall) it would be 10Mbit/s and 18 months later it would be 100Mbit/s. So far he's pretty accurate - at the time I would have killed for 1Meg down. Now I have about 4 and I'd love 10. When I get 10 I fear I'll be drooling for 100 and so on.
So my next question is: what price would you pay for 50/20Mbit/s service? With, say 100GB of data.
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exactly... just give it to me now. NOW!
sorry. It's not like there's anything to watch at the moment (Battlestar Galactica season four? Anybody?)
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@Kyle - not necessarily... upload speeds can be increased dramatically over DSL - ADSL, the current choice, is asymmetrical. VDSL can be offered symmetrically and VDSL2 is in the ballpark for the speeds on the thread so far (50Mbit/s down, 30Mbit/s up)... but that's dependent on distance from the cabinet/exchange (up to 1km).
There are alternatives to fibre - I'm concerned (personally - still not representing!) at this fixation on One Technology to Rule Us All. I'd rather see a technology-neutral approach (to a lot of things but this in particular) and an emphasis on the service. I too want HDTV streaming to my home - I don't care if that's delivered over satellite TV, terrestrial, wifi, LTE, WiMax, copper, fibre or cable. It can be bean cans on string and I wouldn't care - I just want the service.
Cheers,
Paul -
Can I just ask the PA crowd what kinds of speeds they think they'd like? I'm curious as to how fast users think they want their connections to go (I hear everything from 10Mbit/s to 1Gbit/s to "I just want it to cost less, I don't care about the speed").
Cheers
Curious Paul (not representing anyone... just asking)
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When I think of Trevor I think of Magical Trevor...