Posts by Matthew Hooton
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Go to http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=STLABOUR
Look at unemployment rates by age and gender and look at the 15-24 age group, all persons. At 15.1% in Q1 2013, we’re now below the OECD average and falling.
See in particular:
Youth labour market improves
In the year to March 2013, there was a large fall in unemployment for people aged 15–24 years (down 10,500). This fall can be largely attributed to a decrease in unemployed 20–24-year-olds (down 11,200). This was an atypical fall in unemployment, as the number of people
unemployed for this age group usually increases during March quarters. The unemployment rate for people aged 20–24 years fell 4.1 percentage points to 10.9 percent – the lowest rate since the September 2009 quarter.The employment rate for 20–24-year-olds rose over the year to March 2013. There was also an increase in the number of people aged 15–24 years not in the labour force over the year. Behind this was a rise in the number of young people outside the labour force who are studying (up 25,000). The number of both 15–19-year-olds and 20–24-year-olds in study rose – up 16,200 and 8,800 respectively.
NEET rate declines
In seasonally adjusted terms, the NEET (not in employment, education or training) rate for youth (aged 15–24 years) decreased 1.5 percentage points, to 12.5 percent in the March 2013 quarter. This is the lowest youth NEET rate since the September 2011 quarter. The NEET rate for people aged 20–24 years fell 2.4 percentage points to 15.9 percent.
The female youth NEET rate decreased for the first time since September 2011 – down 1.2 percentage points to 16.2 percent. The male NEET rate also fell 2.0 percentage points, to 8.9 percent, after being relatively flat for the last three quarters.
These must also be HORRIBlE RIGHTWING LIES from Statistics New Zealand and the OECD.
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Look on the bright side about all this. For the first time, Aucklanders are having an ARGUMENT about the future of our city/region. Like all arguments, it may not be as well informed as it should be. But the very fact it is happening shows Helen Clark and Rodney Hide were right to push the Super City. (Compare and contrast: In 2007, Auckland was unable even to accept a free rugby stadium from Trevor Mallard - for the national game with a World Cup looming. It wasn't that Auckland said no to the Mallard stadium. It was that there was no ability to say yes.) So don't despair. Things are better than ever before and eventually the argument will be resolved.
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Hard News: Key Questions, in reply to Matthew Hooton,
I meant "Clark would have done it too"
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Hard News: Key Questions, in reply to Raymond A Francis,
Raymond, I agree with you in the sense that Helen Clark tried in her third term to remove fundamental rights of free speech and would have represented a major threat to the continuation of a free media had she and Winston Peters been re-elected in 2008. Which is why I don't think "Clark would have do me it too" should ever be used as a defence for ten current or future prime ministers.
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Hard News: Key Questions, in reply to Matthew Poole,
RNZ gave me and Mike Williams a transcript of the Gower/Key conversation when Mike and I were in the studio this morning. I have discarded it since but it involved Paddy asking Key what might happen if North Korea invaded South Korea and then the US and Australia went to South Korea's defence, and Key saying he didn't want to speculate but that NZ had a record of defending South Korea. So while I think Key said more than he needed to, I also agree with you that this is a bit of a beat up. I think pretty much all New Zealanders would support helping a friendly now-democratic country, and major trading partner, defend itself from invasion by a loony dictatorship.
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Russell, the PM's answer that "[his] appointment was made by the State Services Commissioner" cannot possibly have been true because under section 9 of Helen Clark's Government Communications Security Bureau Act 2003 the appointment can only be made by the governor-general (which means, under our constitution, the governor-general acting under the advice of the prime minister.
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Do you really want us to talk tonight about boring old intermediate school cuts? ACC Chairman and CEO resigning. Auditor-General investigating the Prime Minister's pokie deal. The class size backdown is positively passe.
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Hard News: Press Play > Budget, in reply to Johnny Red,
Whatever "austerity" means, it doesn't apply to NZ. Net debt has gone from about -$5b in 2008 and will reach $71b in 2016, a $76b stimulus over 8 years. And NZ hasn't been in recession since 2008/9. I think people just use the word "austerity" because it got a lot of play in France during the presidential election, so its kind of fashionable, and it aligns with their preconceptions about what a National budget looks like.
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Hard News: Press Play > Budget, in reply to HenryB,
Its because its not a zero budget. That's just a slogan. Go to page 20 of http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/2012/estimates/est12sumtab.pdf Government spending goes up from an estimated $79.5 billion this year to $81.7 billion next year, etc. This doesn't have anything to do with the SOE share sales.
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The most stupid part is it being called an "austerity" budget (and, if spending goes up as a percentage of GDP, even Bill English calling it a "zero" budget).
Since it was elected the government has borrowed an amount approaching 20% of GDP and it will keep borrowing for at least two and probably three more years. If that is to be called anything it should be called "stimulatory", but the terms "austerity" and "stimulatory" don't really apply here. They have been borrowed from Europe where, for example, the UK has borrowed around 50% of GDP since the GFC and others much more than that. That was indeed stimulatory (to a foolish degree) and now they are being forced to make big, sudden cuts to overall spending and keep cutting into the future. In contrast, NZ ran surpluses every year except one from 1993 to 2008 so that was when - if people must use the term - we were austere, even if spending went mental in the last three years of that period.