Posts by Marc C
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Ever so fitting, some Brits have brains and are outspoken at the same time:
Most seem to live in exile.
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As a person living in NZ with close connection to continental Europe, I think it is about time to tell the Brits to get stuffed, go and take your hike and see how you get on. We have observed for so many years, how the British governments have sought a special role again and again and again, and never really wanted to be a full part of Europe, this is the divorce you in your majority wanted, you got it, explain it to the people within your nation, why and how. The rest will be done, you will NOT get new terms and conditions before the expiry of your membership, that is the legal situation. This I primarily address to British governments, particularly the present disorderly one, but the people chose to take part in the bizarre referendum where many lies were common arguments that were used, pro and contra. Sort your mess out, thank you. Good luck and get stuffed, most of Europe, who care, had quite enough of British special roles and narcissism. Get over the loss of your Empire and your losses elsewhere, forget also your United Kingdom.
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If it were not for the fact that the UK has a FFP voting system, and if it were not for the fact it is still a constitutional monarcy, it could well be heading into territory that was the "normal" in the so called former "Weimar Republic".
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The discussion here is interesting, but most commenters seem to be continuing to be concerned about the "Brexit" and the consequences for the UK. Focus now seems to be on the British 'Labour' Party and who will be the new or possibly re-confirmed leader.
It appears to me that the vote in the referendum has actually now caused more of political instability and upheaval within the UK. The EU seems to start to refocus and move on with re-consolidating itself, that is the leadership, and working of bringing in changes that allow the various member states and their people some more "democracy" and liberty in how to work as members within the Union.
But after all, I have started to somehow accept the vote that occurred last week, that is the outcome, it was democratic, although misinformation was apparently part of the campaign on both sides.
Stock exchanges are stabilising, so is the British Pound at a lower level, and people do of course get on with their lives, although some businesses, particularly banks and financial service industry players face some more significant adjustments.
People get on with their lives.
While the decision to leave the EU may not make sense to many of us, I fear that some here may over idealise the EU, as the realities we have are far from the ideal it was once meant to become, this community, or association of states in Europe, to work together. Let us not forget the major failures in handling the refugee crisis, that was just one of many major issues the EU has had to deal with, and in my view it dealt with it abysmally poorly. The Greek financial crisis was another big example of how fragile the EU and in particular the Eurozone within it are, and how they struggled to get a compromise that did not make either side happy, neither the Greeks and nor the governments and people in many other member countries.
I think we can consider the idea of a federal and united Europe needs to be laid to rest. Also is the EU nowadays a trading block, one single market, where like everywhere else in the global economy, it is big business dominating matters of trade and terms of employment and what else comes with it, the ordinary citizen does indeed in so many cases feel let down and left out. Even the internal financial transactions to try and boost economically poor, neglected regions do not seem to result in sufficient support for the economic and social realities most face.
I know people who struggle there, in many countries, whether being business people, farmers or whatever, and the gap between rich and poor is widening there as it is here in New Zealand, with many feeling disowned and not having a voice, and not being heard. So we must not be surprised at all about the fragmentation of the political landscape there, the recent Spanish elections show it perfectly, it is hard for governments there to form and to be stable, in many countries.
Disaffected increasingly vote either left leaning or in more cases more nationalistic and right leaning parties, either in protest or because they actually believe that it is better to return to a situation where each nation looks better after itself by returning to more independence from the EU.
The EU has major unresolved issues, the ideal it once represented is dead for many, and the UK will have to find internal solutions and peace, which is at the moment hard to see coming any time soon.
The "Brexit" shows us, how much we are interlinked and inter-dependent globally, and when opting out, it can have major consequences, one way or another. It shows what risks New Zealand may face, standing on its own feet, but there may also be opportunities. But as we have it, most are so afraid now to question the status quo, we have lost a lot of freedom, as workers (unions have marginal power), as citizens (political options are so restrained or limited due to economic and financial networks and dependencies), as voters also, as stepping away from the status quo could bring immense political instability, as many would see it.
I fear personal and societal freedom has never been more at risk than it is today, while we fool ourselves that we live in democracies and have actual choices. It makes for depressing reading, what happened over the last week.
Maybe this is proof why so few actually take a firm stand against the TPPA and other trade agreements the government has in the past already signed, or decided to become part of. Business and the allied finance sector rules, governments collaborate with them more than serve their voters, and that is where the world is, and seems to be stuck, unless a revolution on a global scale may happen.
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"Once the UK triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, it loses basically all leverage with the EU, because within feasible bounds Brussels knows the UK has to take whatever deal is on offer. If the UK ever says: “well if that’s your bottom line, there’s no deal,” it is left with pre-1973 nothing. That won’t play well in Blighty, meaning Britain's leaders have painted themselves into a very tight corner."
George Osborne seems to think they will be given time to work out proposals to put before the EU, for negotiations, but with there being no effective government, Cameron having announced he will not hand in the Article 50 application, and others like Johnson disqualifying themselves with stupid comments by the hour, the EU will get damned furious as they seem to expect things to start moving as of tomorrow.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/27/brexit-live-george-osborne-economy-corbyn-shadow-cabinet
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/27/pound-shares-markets-brexit-crisis-osborne-lew-business-live?page=with:block-5770cf28e4b0be24d34f640f#block-5770cf28e4b0be24d34f640f
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/27/pound-shares-markets-brexit-crisis-osborne-lew-business-live?page=with:block-5770c610e4b0f43038109fbc#block-5770c610e4b0f43038109fbc"Osborne says he favours delaying triggering Article 50 -- to start the process of leaving the EU – until it’s clear what the terms would be.
That might alarm EU leaders, who want Britain to exit the building sharpish. But it might calm the City, as it gives some breathing space for the political crisis raging in Britain to calm down."
These guys have lost the plot, the Conservatives are in turmoil, there is noone really in charge anymore, nobody has any credit left, and there is with the turmoil in Labour no alternative government that could take over.
On Al Jazeera news they are talking about new general elections as the only way forward now, but that will take months to organise.
And the EU cannot let the Brits off the hook easily, as that would send signals to populations and EU critics all over Europe, to also challenge the EU Commission and present system, and go for a referendum, thinking that way they may be able to put pressure on for better terms for their business enterprises, economy, workers and society.
We are watching the dismantling of the second largest economy on this planet, the European Union, all set off by voters wanting a Brexit in the UK.
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Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Alfie,
Yes, thanks for that, indeed, alienation, loss of credibility, which includes the media establishment, and reading the following, that is the scary stuff we face:
“The rise of ISIS and the foothold it seized in Iraq and Libya were the direct byproducts of the West’s military actions (as even Tony Blair admitted regarding Iraq). ”
"INDEED MEDIA REACTION to the Brexit vote — filled with unreflective rage, condescension, and contempt toward those who voted wrong — perfectly illustrates the dynamics that caused all of this in the first place. Media elites, by virtue of their position, adore the status quo. It rewards them, vests them with prestige and position, welcomes them into exclusive circles, allows them to be close to (if not themselves wielding) great power while traveling their country and the world, provides them with a platform, fills them with esteem and purpose. The same is true of academic elites, financial elites, and political elites. Elites love the status quo that has given them, and then protected, their elite position."
There is likely to be worse to come, worse than a Brexit and worse than even ISIS, as the elite within the system is not only losing credibility, it is fast running out of answers to all these challenges we face, not just in the UK. A collapse of existing order is possible, eventually on a global scale, exposing us to new forms of anarchy, not pleasant forms of anarchy, and the harsh reaction to it.
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Access: Disability as a wicked policy problem, in reply to Hilary Stace,
Thanks for that, Aylward is probably coming to see his mate Dr Bratt at MSD, to see how he is doing with "change management" that he was "learning" about when visiting Aylward at his peculiar "psycho-social and disability" research centre in Cardiff, Wales, during April and May 2014.
By the way, one man who was asked to deal with a complaint, indeed some complaints, where MSD and Dr Bratt refused certain info under the OIA, he has now decided to resign as Ombudsman, two years before his 5 year assignment should have ended:
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/307362/ron-paterson-resigns-as-ombudsman
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/81480414/ombudsman-ron-paterson-cuts-short-fiveyear-term-as-office-deals-with-investigations-backlogThis was already announced weeks ago on the website of the Ombudsman, but media seem to have just noticed and learned about this today.
From what I gather, he was not much of an effective Ombudsman, although there was the odd determination he made, that was respected. But the following requester was not impressed, I gather:
https://nzsocialjusticeblog2013.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/ombudsman-complaint-o-i-a-to-msd-dr-bratt-publ-int-prov-dec-compl-hilit-22-05-15.pdf
https://nzsocialjusticeblog2013.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/ombudsman-complaint-3xxxxx-msd-o-i-a-fr-16-01-14-bratt-presentations-anon-ltr-13-06-15.pdf
https://nzsocialjusticeblog2013.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/ombudsman-complaint-msd-o-i-a-rqst-16-01-14-dr-bratt-presentation-info-hilit-dec-23-06-15.pdfI think more re this kind of stuff was already posted here before.
Government agencies' conduct and performance, and the treatment of sick and disabled, it leaves to be desired, and transparency is something hard to come by, at least at times. And where is the evaluation report that MSD promised mid last year for 'Mental Health Employment Services', I wonder?
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What appears to not have been given that much consideration here is the role of the UK press in all this outcome. Various print media took clear positions pro or contra the EU and thus suggested their readers vote accordingly.
We have a global change in mainstream media use and the growth of social media, some of which lives on feeding on mainstream media reporting on matters, and then discussing it in various forums, some is not relying on mainstream media, simply promoting various ideas and positions, whether they are based on factual information or not.
In general, my observation is we get poorer reporting, there is a decline in investigative journalism, and instead the growth of click bait kind of information being consumed and digested by many.
When we may observe that it was a higher "leave" vote was coming from those who may be less educated, less connected, less wealth owning and low income earning persons, and those who voted "stay" were mostly better educated, better connected, enjoying safer employment and better, secure incomes and so, then this may also be reflected in the "leave" voters being less informed, and having perhaps fallen for the now evident large scale misinformation that was presented by the "leave" promoters.
Media used to take responsibilities to inform and generate informed discussion more seriously than it has done for a fair few years now. With the privatisation of television and radio, this seems to have been started, and this may also have encouraged more emotive and even populist reporting, getting the better ratings. Commercial interests play a role also, but it seems, in the UK misinformation and lack of information has led to many already poorly informed to rely on one sided comments by the likes of Johnson and Farage, and to simply accept wrong information, thus voting as they have.
A democracy only functions if you have informed citizenry, if misinformation and emotive stuff takes over, we know where that leads to. I blame some of recent developments in Europe and the US also on the media not anymore doing its job of informing well and in a balanced manner.
We can see from the elections we had here since 2008, how the media appears to have facilitated the re-election of a Key led government, by apparently somehow taking sides on publicly discussed topics. Lest we forget "dirty politics", there appears to have been ample of such "dirty politics" that occurred during this EU Referendum in the UK.
This "dirty politics" escalation seemed to whip up emotions in some, that even led to one extreme minded person shooting a MP. I am worried about the future in all democracies, with the state of media we now have. Unless there is some realisation that journalism comes with responsibilities, we will have more bad and unexpected decisions made in elections, leading to serious risks for local, regional and also global stability.
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Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit, in reply to Matthew Hooton,
Hopefully, the EU responds to this event by seriously addressing its democratic deficit. If it does not, other countries will leave. And if that includes a major continental power then the risk is a return in a few decades to the pre-1945 rivalry among states, which seriously risks leading to war.
Matthew, there is a shit chance of more democracy to be introduced to the EU Parliament and system. No national parliament in any of the member states will want to surrender more power, the drive is in the other direction. The dissatisfaction with national governments is growing all over Europe, and this has not only to do with EU politics. Look at the make up of the parliaments, in France, Italy, Spain and even Germany, where governments have lost popularity and struggle to form coalitions to govern. Not just by coincidence is Spain holding its second general election within six months this weekend.
Angela Merkel herself could not govern without a coalition partner, which are now (again) the SPD in the Bundestag. But the SPD is not polling around only twenty percent points. It is not helping them to support Merkel and her government.
What we have in New Zealand, a large proportion of people not bothering with politics anymore, is happening in Europe also, and those that bother, they do increasingly vote left or right leaning protest parties and movements.
With the refugee crisis having pushed the EU and its member state government's limits, with more people fearing migrants more than welcoming them with open arms (remember the attacks in Paris, Brussels and alerts even in Germany), there is no chance that people want to give up national sovereignty and hand power to a central EU Parliament and the Commission, believing in open borders and so forth.
We are seeing Europe return to something a bit more similar to the times between the Great Wars. That will though happen gradually, and can take a few decades.
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"Brexit isn’t a sudden seismic event, it's not a political earthquake. The language being used by politicians of all stripe implies that it is though. But it’s not. It’s more of a slow erosion process, but admitting that would mean that those who were in positions of political influence during the long goodbye would have to accept responsibility for their utter failure to engage on the European Union."
Indeed, it is the result of a slow erosion process. And it is not only in the UK, where Members of the European Parliament (MEP) have been treated as second rate kind of politicians, that applies to virtually all EU member countries. Some have been running as candidates for national elections, and lost, some have perhaps been representatives in national or regional parliaments, but then chose to run as MEP candidate, as a kind of semi retirement job.
The EU Parliament lacks democratic power, as some commenters mentioned, as the Commission proposes and/or decides on stuff they may need to deal with.
This is as much a failing of the British governments to bring their own people closer to Europe, as it is a failing of the EU itself, to bring Europe closer to the people in all member countries.
We have an organisation that started as nothing much else but a free trade region, but which increasingly took on more responsibilities, working towards bringing Europe together, which though was mostly done by administrative and closed meeting room political agreements and measures.
Few know in any country, who their MEPs are, few Europeans follow what the EU decides, and the mainstream media has also failed in reporting much on EU matters, apart from when it was in crisis. The constant balancing acts between national governments and the EU Commission and Parliament, trying to only do things that will not upset national governments, and trying at the same time to keep Europe together, has failed abysmally.
The GFC handling was showing the limits of the EU and Eurozone, that a union of nations with poorly aligned legal and financial systems, run on the lowest common denominator basis, was a poor kind of construct. Then the handling of the Greek financial crisis brought it close to break up point, and the refugee crisis last year nearly did the rest. Now we have the real disaster, the "Brexit", and that will spell the end of the EU as it has been known, it will now go into reverse gear, which a meeting of foreign ministers already showed yesterday. A looser union, where individual governments and countries have more freedom to decide their own priorities will simply mean the drive for a united Europe is history.
Also they cannot now punish Britain, as that will cause an escalation and tit for tat actions, so they will be forced to give Britain terms for trade and other relations, that will only be marginally worse than what they enjoy now, plus they will allow Britain to set its own rules re migration and so forth. This though will be an encouragement for other nations, where enough people may raise their voices to also hold referendums, to follow Britain, and this will lead to a break-up, perhaps apart from a core EU of only a few member states.
At the same time the UK may break up, as suggested by a fair few, Scotland seems determined now to leave Britain, and who knows what Northern Ireland may decide. But there are regions in Spain, Italy and other countries that also want independence, they will feel encouraged to follow their ambitions.
Europe will change fundamentally, and not for the better, with all its flaws, the EU was at least a project that needed to be done better, could be remedied if the will was there, but the Brits, always wanting to play their own special role (see many exemptions of conditions they got), have in their majority thrown the spanner into the works.
Just thirty years ago, the first EU passports were issued, and now we can look forward for those to be turned back into more national types of passports:
http://www.cvce.eu/en/recherche/unit-content/-/unit/02bb76df-d066-4c08-a58a-d4686a3e68ff/3ee56c0d-85c3-44cb-a403-7d911c4e0375As for UK politics, Cameron kicked a huge own goal, and for the rest, it will be turmoil and instability for years to come. One European leader on the sideline is smiling though, Vladimir Putin will be very pleased about a weakened EU and Britain.