Posts by Mr Mark
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Polity: Key Derangement Syndrome…, in reply to Mr Mark,
Dang ! I meant to preview the above comment rather than post !
Second half of that sentence was more than a little tortuous.
Bugger, bugger, bugger !
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Yep, Rob, I had something similar to say on The Standard a couple of days ago to one of that site's highly-enthusiastic resident Tory Trolls, frequently-delighted as they so often are by what they perceive to be the erudition of their tangy little bon mots..
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-06032016/#comment-1142635
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Hard News: The flagging referendum, in reply to linger,
Yeah, that age gap has been evident since polling on the issue began - going right back to the earliest (Aug 2011) Research New Zealand Poll.
Probably partly associated with Party Support - the Under 30s significantly more likely to vote for/support parties of the Left Bloc than the Right. They're not huge JK fans.
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Recent Poll Results on the Proposed Flag Change (with demographic / party support breakdowns)
See my latest two posts
http://sub-z-p.blogspot.co.nz/(Tip: Tables look best via laptop - otherwise look a bit messy)
- Mr Mark/swordfish
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Polity: Poll Soup, in reply to David Hood,
Brilliant, David. Thanks, I really appreciate it.
So, at the decisive 2008 General Election:
About 140,000 former Labour voters swing to the Nats
20,000 Nats swing to Labour
23,000 Lab voters move to Non-Voting
10,000 Nats also stay at home on Election Day
33,000 former NZFers swing to the Nats
17,000 Greens move to National -
Polity: Poll Soup, in reply to Russell Brown,
Cheers, Russell.
Some very interesting Roy Morgan data on Non-Voters' Party preferences by Age 2014
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1409/S00256/busting-non-voter-pattern-myths-election-data-consortium.htmAnd ... A few surveys on Non-Voter Characteristics
2008-11 New Zealand General Social Survey
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/people_and_communities/Well-being/civic-human-rights/non-voters-2008-2011-gen-elections.aspx2014 Non-Voter Satisfaction Survey
http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/election-results-and-reporting/voter-and-non-voter-satisfaction-surveyhttp://www.elections.org.nz/research-statistics/research/voter-and-non-voter-surveys
Young Non-Voters
http://www.mm-research.com/Young+People's+Participation+in+the+Voting+Process -
Polity: Poll Soup, in reply to David Hood,
Cheers, David.
The 2008-11 stats are very interesting.
But, I'd especially like to see 2005-08. That's the bone-of-contention in this wee debate - the Election where the decisive Left-to-Right swing occurred.
Lab down 7 points
Left Bloc down 6 points
Clark Govt Bloc down 7 pointsNats up 6
Right up 7Little change to the Oppo and Right Bloc percentages in elections since then (despite on-going Lab decline)
Also, Lab swing to non-voting in 2011 isn't too surprising given that 2011 was THE low turnout election (down 5 points on 2008). In contrast, turnout only fell 1 point in 2008 (relative to 2005). So, less likely to apply to 2008 - which, as I say, is the bone of contention here.
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Missing Million
A few posts from some years back ...
... Grumpollie (Andrew R at Colmar Brunton ?) analyses the New Zealand Election Study data on those of the missing million with a party preference in 2008 and 2011
https://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/if-everyone-got-out-to-vote-in-2011-what-difference-would-it-have-made/He was responding to Danyl's Dim-Post discussion
https://dimpost.wordpress.com/2013/11/14/i-just-cannot-let-this-go-by/#commentsand to various media claims about non-voters' political proclivities
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9909573/Its-the-digital-election-raceGrumpollie's piece, in turn, inspired Young Master Farrar to speculate
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/04/what_if_everyone_voted.htmlprompting this response from Rob Salmond ..
... http://polity.co.nz/content/impact-labours-gotv-efforts#commentsin turn, prompting this response from Grumpollie
https://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2014/04/03/not-about-the-impact-of-labours-gotv-efforts/See also this detailed analysis from Puddleglum at The Political Scientist
http://www.thepoliticalscientist.org/nationals-problem-more-glass-ceiling-than-complacency/ -
Polity: Poll Soup, in reply to BenWilson,
The Jack Vowles et al New Zealand Election Study would be the place to find data on the percentage of voters swinging from one party to another. Unfortunately, without SPSS, I don't have access to those stats (and they don't seem to have included them in their recent (published) post-Election analyses in the way that they once did in the 1990s/early zeros).
But - I've decided to wander on down the (admittedly sometimes fraught) road of common sense. Call me old-fashioned, but there you are.
Between the 2005 and 2008 General Elections:
Labour lost a little over 138,000 votes
NZF lost almost 35,000
Progressives lost more than 5,000
Whereas, the Greens rose by a mere 37,000Nats, meanwhile, gained 164,000
with the entire Right Bloc up 182,000Turnout in 2008 was only slightly down on 2005.
Can't prove anything - possible , I guess that there were huge Lab-to-non-voting and non-voting-to-Nat swings - but a significant direct Lab-to-Nat swing would seem a little more likely.
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Three things:
(1) Although I haven't checked, I'd say the December Herald-Digi outlier (Nat 51% / Govt 55% - a massive 10 points ahead of the Oppo) probably played a crucial role in the fall of the Nat/Govt Bloc average in Jan-Feb 2016.
(2) Bear in mind that there's a post-May 2015 divergence between two sets of pollsters:
Colmar Brunton and Reid Research have placed the Opposition ahead in every single poll over the last 9 months, while the Government leads in all of the Herald-Digis and in three quarters of the Roy Morgans.
So the varying ratio of Govt-friendly polls ( RM / HD ) to Oppo-friendly ones ( CB / RR ) in any given two-month period potentially exerts a decisive impact on Party vs Party / Bloc vs Bloc averages.(3) I wonder if Rob's right when he suggests the putative Left coalition (Lab+Greens) need to - at bare minimum - tie with National to be seriously in the game (ie seriously tempt Winnie) ? Seems a big ask.
Just wondering what Winnie would do in a Left 42% / Nat 46% / NZF 9% scenario ?