Posts by tussock
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Legal Beagle: Election 2014: the no…, in reply to archie t,
Zero threshold places use a first divisor of 1.4 (or higher) but stick with Sainte-Laguë. For 120 seats it's effectively a 0.6% threshold.
Even with the Conservatives I like it better. National gets a lot of combinations (seven, I think) to trade off against each other for their votes on each issue, piss-easy minority government. -
Labour either needs to
1: Get massive turnout, which they've had a go at a few times now and it's just not the same as with Auntie Helen. It wasn't the same as with Auntie Helen even when it was, really, 2005 wasn't exactly glorious, and that's a long time ago now anyway. The crowds from 99/02 are older.
2: Get a very small number of the people who voted National today, to vote Labour or Green in 3 years time instead. Or NZF. Which doesn't actually seem to be about hurting their turnout, because that didn't work either. They just need to steal away 2% or so, because that's a 4 point shift and that's a left wing government.
Though then National can just give the nod to Conservative in a seat somewhere next time and get a free 4% extra. And give Winston some prizes for another 10% on that. I don't know, maybe they should just promise irresponsible tax cuts for the rich. Despite most people not actually benefiting, most people fucking well vote for it don't they, even if it's for the next election and not this one. Surprisingly (eh?), no one really voted for more taxes to pay for the things they want government to do. Promise economic miracles instead, like the right do. Growth will pick up, you see. Fairy dust, people love it.
Chase that ignorant racist self-centred bigot middle voter like they do in Oz by torturing refugees on the evening news.
3: Figure out why the fuck so many people under 40 don't care either way. That could be the lack of them hearing any difference, you know. National is very quick at pouncing on popular Labour policies and claiming them as their own (in some cruelly watered-down version that gives more to the rich). People used to vote more than this.Again, congrats to the Nats. If only they'd apply their mastery of politic to getting the country behind building a decent future for the place.
Edit: Killing the Alliance. Trying to kill the Māori Party. Killing the Mana Movement. It's not helping. That's where some of that missing turnout is, seats that aren't there to vote against National. There's people like that genuine left wing thing, eh. The war in Afghanistan started the rot, all this shit eating sitting in opposition and getting your people bought off by Murray (present) because they never got Cabinet pay, that's not helping. The internal ideological shit-fights over direction, just apply some fucking science, do some polling, and find out what should work, eh.Stop listening to idiot trolls like me. For goodness sake, Labour.
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Hard News: Time to Vote, in reply to krothville,
So things could get worse.
Hone could win on specials too, but it's not likely.
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The attacks on Dotcom are rather hilarious when you consider the sort of person who hides behind the infamous National not-so-secret trusts.
Again, congrats to the Nats. Hope they lose a couple on specials yet, but either way it's three more years of nothing like as good as it could be. I'm really going to have to get my bike fixed, because a gigantic bike ride would have felt pretty good tomorrow.
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So, the greens usually grab 1/2 a point on specials, and there's a bunch of them, so they'll get that last seat off National most likely, though it could come off Labour yet. NZF could grab a 2nd off National. They're still in though.
Hey, just got reminded. Colin Craig is not in parliament. That, my good folk, is really a gigantic relief, even though it's tragically unfair to those voters and he damn well should be in. This could have been very much worse though. -
Hard News: Time to Vote, in reply to Joe Wylie,
Now what about all the yoof
Oh, please. Everyone tries to mobilise their own particular kind of youth voter, and everybody is somewhat successful. A whole lot of them vote National, but still enjoy the free music and also hate the shit out of John Key.
Internet-Mana had bloody good policies, good on you for voting for them. We'd have been a better country for having them in parliament. But that's life under the 5% threshold. Keeps out the riff raff, don't you know.
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Oh, 65% turnout in Manurewa. Yeh, never mind. Overs. Well done National, congratulations to the right. Played the man, not the ball, but it won you the game, so that's that.
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83% Palmerston North. Trend is good for the cities. National seats have had a poor turnout, they usually have the better of it by quite a bit.
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Hard News: Time to Vote, in reply to Steve Barnes,
A Nation of
Language, sir. Manners, and it's not done yet. Big boxes come last, and they come hard for the left.
Having said that, last election what I heard from them was "well, yes, but I trust John Key". This election is was "well, yes, but we're doing alright".
Thus the "don't rock the boat" ads. It was a good campaign they ran, avoided the policy like crazy, because no one likes them. But we are a nation of boomers just passing retirement age, with their houses paid for and everything in family trusts for the kids to dodge all the taxes, and the rest of us are going to be supporting them with everything we've got for a long time yet at this rate.
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80% Dunedin South turnout. It is higher in the more Labour areas (though both Dunedin electorates are mixed now, rural and city).
Hone Harawira is out by the look of it, that's a big cost to the left.