Posts by linger
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Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow, in reply to simon g,
One has to weigh that 340k number against the over 500k adult expat NZers worldwide, about half of whom are not registered to vote. Many would have Auckland as their most recent NZ address, which might explain some of the apparent regional disparities.
And as I’ve said before, some of the advance votes will also be new registrations – and those figures are not yet included in the official registration stats.
And as I've also said before, the advance vote total is heading for over 1 million. (I don't think it will get very much higher than that, but it's still comfortably on track for that target.)
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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to Trevor Nicholls,
Bill had a reputation for integrity
In a double-Dipton “within the letter of the law we rewrote to make it legal” kind of way. And relative to other National ministers, which sets a low bar for comparison.
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Access Granted: Kat Greenbrook – From…, in reply to Alfie,
It’s quite hard to see it, full stop!
Player doesn’t work (and even the photo doesn’t load) on 3 of the 4 browsers able to run on my ancient MacOS. (The one exception is Chrome.)
Admittedly, relying on software 10 years out of date probably marks me as not being in the target audience… -
Are these recent immigrants and expats all young people?
Nah, though both groups will skew younger than the average; the important thing is they outnumber the unregistered youth, which we need to bear in mind when considering who's not voting. Danyl’s argument specifically about age was that youth participation is generally lower everywhere, and NZ’s youth voting rate is already at the level Corbyn encouraged in the UK.
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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to Caleb D'Anvers,
Could something similar [to Corbyn bringing out the youth vote] happen in NZ?
Danyl Mclauchlan’s analysis suggests we are unlikely to see any similarly strong effect, because the “missing” voters in the last few NZ elections were largely (i) recent immigrants, and (ii) NZ expats (mostly in Australia), rather than some homogenous radicalisable youth vote.
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Speaker: Polling 2017: life beyond landlines?, in reply to Jason Kemp,
That's being quite optimistic. If (as is usually the case) polls show one option far below others, the more usual effect is to discourage voters for that option. Moreover, regardless of the poll result, there may be a fatigue effect from the relentless coverage. So I'm not convinced the overall effect of polls is positive.
(OTOH the fatigue effect may be one factor behind the increased advance voting uptake -- get it over and done with and stop paying attention to the talking heads?) -
Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to izogi,
From Emma’s post on advance voting:
Do I have to be enrolled?
No. We can enrol you in the advance voting booth and you can cast your vote at the same time. The only time you can’t enrol is on Election Day.Yes, that should be true at every advance venue. And yes, it would be extremely concerning if some officials were unaware of this.
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Some (very small) subset of the advance votes may also be last-minute registrations, because you can register at the same time as casting an advance vote (though not on the final polling day). But that data is not immediately available.
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On current trend, more than 1 million advance votes will be cast before final election date (despite a shorter timeframe for advance voting!) -- in which case the polls (which legally can't ask anyone how they have already voted) can all bugger off.
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Speaker: Polling 2017: life beyond landlines?, in reply to Walter Nicholls,
30 people. I’m no statistician, but I think that means the confidence in the Purple result is more like 1/√30 than 1/√1000 – or 18%.
Yeah, nah (as I’ve already said: depends on whether that number comes from a low support base generalisable over the entire sample, or a higher support base from some definable limited subsample). But in practice the methodology differences seem to be swamping the theoretically-modellable uncertainties.