Posts by Clint Fern
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Che Tibby,
…when I said “your dream of a single party to help the Nats govern” I should have put scenario – apologies.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Jackie Clark,
I see bloody Nick Smith out and about being accessible round here - there needs to be more from a leader than just hard work in the constituency, honest toil only goes so far.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Che Tibby,
Hey Che, maybe you're the one not completely au fait with MMP - the overhang only occurs if a party gets more electoral seats than it would have by just overall party vote. The MP would need to increase their % of the party vote massively to gain any more seats than they get through directly elected seats.
They got 2.39% of the party vote at the last election - to get to five seats they would need to hold Rahui Katene's seat and either roughly double their party vote or take one of the two of the Labour seats as they're not contesting TTT. I haven't heard anyone outside of yourself suggesting this as a likely possibilty as Katene seems to be in danger of losing her seat and their party vote would do well to equal last election after the Harawera fallout.
I suspect your dream of a single party to help the Nats govern would be NZ First which might scupper the asset selloff.
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Kumara Republic,
I'd say Goff was closer to a figure like John Hewson or Iain Duncan-Smith than Gore. Gore, as dull as he was, did inspire some people (he did get more votes than Bush) whereas Hewson / IDS were totally unattractive to voters and had no chance in their elections - is there anyone out there that finds Goff appealing at all?
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Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Che Tibby,
with National heading to a near-60-seat haul, the Maori Party could get down to as few as 5 seats (1 seat + 4 list, i.e. ACT this time round), and the Nats would still be safe.
They currently have 4 seats and 1 of those is looking in trouble so that kind of blows your theory out of the water.
Also I'd guess theres more than 1 or 2 rednecks not happy with the Nats being so cosy with the MP and they'll give their votes to the alternative, groan, creak and out of the crypt steps Winston.
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I can't see why getting rid of Goff would be damaging to the Labour vote. He's failed to become a credible leader at all in 2.5 years and his stock really has no chance of recovering before the election, much better someone that may just manage to lay a few hits on Key.
Having said that Goff at least has the excuse of having been up against Key. Annette King aside from her role in the Hughes saga has unforgivably failed to make any impression against Paula 'do me a bar-chart so I can understand' Bennett. The so called safe pair of hands that this 'leadership' team represents has fumbled so badly that I imagine that the electorate wouldn't see switching horses in midstream as panicking more a positive removal of dead wood.
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Hard News: Libya, in reply to John Holley,
I think it'd be very charitable to believe that the embassy wasn't deliberately targeted.
Thanks Russell & Simon for pointing out that I had been too charitable in suggesting the US hadn't cosied up to good ol' Mad Dog.
I guess wherever there's a dictator you're sure to find members of the US congress, UK / French arms dealers or Ann Tolley doing a deal.
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Hard News: Libya, in reply to John Holley,
John, in general the bombing may have been a NATO issue but the Chinese embassy bombing was directed by the CIA - no I'm not a conspiracy nut, I'm taking the word of the agencys then director George Tenet.
Neil, absolutely no dispute that the US was the only one with the air power to undertake the campaign. For all Blair's posturing the number of planes the British airforce could offer was miniscule.
I'd also like to state I am not blaming the US for the situation in Libya either - Blair again should be shamed for his liaisons with Gaddafi. This is one dictator that the States has never cosied up to.
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Hard News: Libya, in reply to Neil Morrison,
Don't think the europeans are entirely to blame for the timeframe in the Balkans. Action was also delayed in Bosnia because the Clinton administration had been burnt by the farcical operation in Somalia. Kosovo action only came to the top of the agenda after the Lewinsky affair broke, hence being known in some parts as the war of Bill's penis.
I'm just hoping that the bombing isn't quite as poorly directed this time, OK civilians have already been hit (hopefully no cluster bombs this time), but if they bomb a Chinese target again there will be massive repercussions.
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The picture of the beaten guy somehow reminds me of the two Brit pilots who were shown on Iraqi Tv before Gulf War I.
I would call Judith Collins pondlife but I happen to think frogs a lot more attractive - christ even mossies are less repellent. Maybe having to deal with this up her own self (or whatever Bill English said) and mad Greg O'Connor were the main reasons that Simon Power resigned. Garrett advocated the same thing as Collins but he was always meant to be a fringe loony.