Posts by Lew Stoddart
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iPredict has been very accurate over near-term predictions. It hasn't been around long enough to demonstrate accuracy on long-term predictions. Anyone who claims to be able to predict the result of an election three years from now is either insane, delusional, or trying to sell you something.
In the case of ipredict, it's the latter. I think what we're seeing is some jockeying now because the result of the leadership contest tomorrow will impact the price of other stocks that don't close for a long time yet.
L
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Hard News: The Public Address Word of…, in reply to Robyn Gallagher,
I have a theory – the best nominations for Word of the Year stand on their own with out needing to be explained.
I endorse this theory, and think it so powerful that there's no need to talk about it any further.
L
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There can be only one: munted. If for nothing else, Bob Parker, thank you for giving this term the exposure it deserves.
L
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Hard News: The Next Labour Leader, in reply to Keir Leslie,
Greens to overtake Labour in number of MPs is such an absurd idea it is very hard to take seriously anyone who holds it.
On election night I was offered and swiftly accepted a bet on this premise. If Labour get a higher party vote than the Greens at the 2014 election I stand to gain one, possibly two, bottles of malt whisky, subject to the guy who proposed the bet not begging out in the next short while (in which case I win the right to mock the shit out of him for the next three years :)
L
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Hard News: The Next Labour Leader, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
I stick to my view that the next left-wing government in NZ will be Green led with Labour as a support partner.
This will only be true if you reclassify a Labour-led government as being "not left-wing", which I see a lot of people doing, here and elsewhere.
L
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Hard News: The Next Labour Leader, in reply to DexterX,
If Judith Collins was the last woman left on earth the human race would cease to exist”, was funny and rude.
Shearer seems wooden, I douibt he would have lowered himself to the level. which is Paul Henry.
Now that's what I call an endorsement.
L
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Hard News: The Next Labour Leader, in reply to Richard Aston,
Waitakere man = David Cunliffe
Couldn't be more wrong, Richard; Trotter has Shearer pegged as Waitakere Man's saviour, on the slender premise of his connection with West Coast-Tasman Man Damien O'Connor.
L
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Not fond of this sort of analysis, since a threshold (or lack) changes voter behaviour. But what strikes me is how little difference there is from the actual result this time, compared to 2008. That's about NZF.
L
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Hard News: A week being a long time in politics, in reply to Craig Ranapia,
And, yes, I make no apologies for being *cough* disturbed that I listened to three hours of Morning Report nine days before the general election and there was no policy-related campaign stories. Why aren’t you, Lew?
I don’t lament the lack of policy-focused coverage in the media too loudly because (a) I think there’s a reasonably substantive policy discourse, especially on Radio NZ, and (b) things other than policy matter, and in some cases other things matter a great deal more than policy. The political character of our leadership is an example of that, and a matter that the public has an interest in. As I get sick of arguing, and as people probably get sick of reading, if you’re not a wonkish subject-matter expert you’re probably better making your political decisions on the basis of broad brushstrokes signalling general policy direction and signals related to personality, character and political/institutional competence than on the nitty-gritty technical details. This is not a very fashionable view, but it is what the National party has been campaigning on, and I’ve been telling Labour they should shift their strategy in this direction.
So at the very least I’m consistent. Which is more than can be said for most Tories when it comes to this case (yourself notably excluded).
L
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Hard News: A week being a long time in politics, in reply to Craig Ranapia,
Craig, don't take it personal -- I know more Tories than you, and you're nowhere close to the worst offender.
Perhaps a lot of people don't give a shit. Maybe it's turning into a "pox on both your houses" issue which will simply depress voter engagement with politics. I'm not so sure, and even if they claim to not give a shit, there's still an awful lot of McCombsian agenda domination going on here, and ultimately, the pageviews don't lie.
L