Posts by BenWilson
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Hard News: The Base, in reply to Ben Curran,
I have my own biases, but I'm feeling rather buoyed at the moment by Cuniliffe's speech.
Me too. I'd even go so far as to say I'd actually vote for that, on the proviso that policy specifics matched the rhetoric. But I definitely like the rhetoric, it pushed all of my buttons.
I would not consider myself part of Labour's base. I'm most definitely a swing voter.
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Hard News: #JohnDotBanks and all, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
I'm wondering if the cops had a tap on Dotcom's phone in conjunction with the FBI investigation stuff? And if so, is the evidence admissable for other purposes?
LOL, that's a thought. So some good may come of that debacle after all.
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Hard News: #JohnDotBanks and all, in reply to Russell Brown,
Insanity/memory loss defence, or the stress is getting to Banksie?
Nah, he's proud of being a twit. It's his thing.
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Hard News: #JohnDotBanks and all, in reply to Michael Homer,
If they hadn't thrown them the seat and only 2,000 people switched their vote to National instead of ACT they would have had their 18th list seat anyway.
Yup, but they weren't to know that in advance. They could have needed 40,000 to switch, which was by no means guaranteed. Giving Epsom to Banks was a far safer way of getting that bonus seat. Furthermore, they could well have got Brash as well.
You're saying if they had followed a strategy of killing ACT off, they might have got the same numbers into parliament, because ACT voters would switch to National. Maybe so. Or they might not, and National loses a free seat, and the balance of power. That's why they didn't. Quite aside from the fact that they benefit more from having ACT in power than from one more Nat.
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Hard News: #JohnDotBanks and all, in reply to Keir Leslie,
Don't think that's true though --- the prospect of a labour-led gov't after that election was very little.
There's only a couple of seats in it, which is why Goldsmith was MIA, and National voters swallowed Banks like a dead rat. It wasn't a strategic blunder, it was a vitally important seat, and it still is. Even if a Labour led government was still highly unlikely, every seat when you're that close matters. Also ACT is extremely convenient for National in terms of being able to take the fall for all National's policy.
Are you telling me National wouldn't have won Epsom? The error was twofold. First of all, in assuming that ACT would coat tail more than one MP into the house and secondly that keeping a Zombie alive in the hope of a miracle vaccine only ever works in the movies.
No, I'm not. You're about the 50th person I've had to explain the maths of this to - ACT getting Epsom gives National an effective bonus seat, even if they got no further seats. Why? Because ACT's seat does not count against the National total seats. If National won the seat, they would get one less list MP (so their numbers would be unaffected) and there wouldn't be the ACT MP supporting them in parliament.
Also, having that fall guy to the right is extremely convenient. National doesn't have to own the whole charter schools idea. They can claim asset sales are a vital part of their coalition deal. etc.
ETA:
As it is, ACT's only use is to be a figleaf for accelerating rightward drift of Key's government.
I'm not underestimating how important that is for the Key government. If Banks was actually forced to resign, by some legal miracle, I'd fully expect National to support voting for ACT in Epsom again, just to keep the party alive. I would like it if that didn't happen, but I've gotten used to what I like not happening in NZ politics.
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Legal Beagle: The law may be that stupid, in reply to Graeme Edgeler,
This really is a loophole (with the underlying position being that loopholes are bad).
Whew. It's only a figurative loophole, though. An actual loophole is a hole in the wall to look or shoot through. Totally a design feature.
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But sometimes "loophole" is a perfectly appropriate to a law, and the donation regime in the Local Electoral Act is a wonderful example.
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So yeah. A loophole.
Color me confused. Are you saying this loophole is perfectly appropriate to our laws? I can't see anything appropriate about laws that allow people to get away with hiding their contributors just by having bad memories (either intentionally or not) or being "lax". Why even bother having disclosure laws if it's really this easy to just laugh them off?
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Hard News: #JohnDotBanks and all, in reply to Tom Semmens,
National made a serious political strategic error in choosing to keep alive a party that should instead have had it's life support switched off and left to die.
Except that they need that one seat otherwise they might not actually be the government. Which would also be a political strategic error.
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Hard News: #JohnDotBanks and all, in reply to Kumara Republic,
Pattrick Smellie theorises in BusinessDay that Johnny Boy's 'teflon coating' is to do with American-style red-blue state polarisation landing in NZ:
Could be, but I am quite suspicious of suggestions that rules are changing just because a herd moves in one direction for longer than expected. Herds can turn fast sometimes. Perhaps there's no magic phenomenon at work with John Key, he's just a bubble that gets big before it pops. Will Banks be the prick to pop him?
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Hard News: #JohnDotBanks and all, in reply to Rob Stowell,
That is the shit I've been wanting to hear for quite some time.
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