Posts by Danyl Mclauchlan

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  • Hard News: Poll Crunch,

    Colmar-Brunton and Nielsen show significant bias towards National, TNS towards labour.

    TNS showed significant bias towards Labour before the last election as well - and then turned out to be the closest predictor of the actual election results. It could be different this time around but TNS might have more of a pro-reality bias than a pro-Labour bias.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

  • Hard News: Life Goes On,

    <blockquote> Idiot, why do you persist in this delusional belief that only rich people own shares?

    Not "only", but certainly overwhelmingly.</blockquote>

    Over 800,000 New Zealanders have KiwiSaver accounts - almost all of them will have a share-market component to them. And many employers in New Zealand have pre-existing retirement schemes that will also have large market investments. I'd guess the majority of adult working New Zealanders over the age of forty are invested in the share market.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

  • Hard News: The joke that went too far,

    Ah, there's nothing funnier than a good old fashioned rape hoax.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

  • Hard News: The Debate and Onwards,

    I reckon the only reason McCain is still in the race is white American racism, the elephant in the room that the US media refuses (or is extremely reluctant) to discuss.

    I don't really think this is much of a factor. Most of the people who won't vote for Obama because of his race would favor a Republican candidate anyway. White men broke overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004 and his opponent was another rich white dude.

    Or maybe Bristol's wedding to Levi will trump all. For. Fuck's. Sake.

    It'll be interesting to see what happens if the McCain campaign's reality TV strategy actually works. The Obama campaign can't copy it because he's a young black guy and if he bases his campaign on doing random, insane stunts he'll scare the horses.

    But in 2012 both candidates probably be rich white guys, both picking the craziest VP's and competing with each other to see who can pull of the dumbest publicity stunts. That'll be change I can believe in.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

  • Legal Beagle: Things that aren't true,

    if someone can up up a blue one, I'll be a happy man

    Does poor weather on election day favor the National Party?

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

  • Hard News: There's a lot of it about,

    On an happier note, McCain is surely toast now.

    You'd think so, but I thought he was toast when he picked Joan of Alaska to be his Vice President and instead his poll numbers went through the roof. I've given up trying to guess how US voters are going to react to the GOPs inane gimmicks.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

  • Hard News: There's a lot of it about,

    This is where the opposition tried to remove MPs and Ministers time and time again. Somtimes there was good cause, very ofetn there was not. BUT the push back is that in order to survive any Government is now going to have to defend their representatives to the hilt and only abandon that stance at the absolute last point.

    My suggestion is that in order to survive, MPs don't submit false declarations to Parliament or repeatedly lie to the country but maybe I'm old fashioned that way.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

  • Hard News: There's a lot of it about,

    That sets a dangerous precedent Danyl. I don't like Winston and will be happy to see him finally fall but I'd be equally concerned if he's been bought down by begrudging corporates still looking for payback from the Winebox...

    I guess the moral of the story is that if you make rich, powerful enemies you shouldn't engage in illegal and corrupt practices and then pointlessly provoke a war with the national media.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

  • Hard News: There's a lot of it about,

    If someone wanted Peters to take a fall, as much as Peters might have deserved it, that is a story in itself. But who does that investigation?

    Whoever it was did the country a favor - in addition to lying to the country non-stop for almost a year, Peters convinced the government to go against Treasury advice and award the horse racing industry millions of dollars in taxpayer money while at the same time receiving secret donations from wealthy businessmen in that industry.

    I'm also tired of hearing about it, don't like Rodney Hide, think Key looks shifty on camera, accept that the people attacking him did so for political reasons yadda yadda yadda, but its important to look past all that and concede that this was a pretty clear cut case of corruption by one of the most senior politicians in the country.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

  • Hard News: Crash and Contempt,

    Lehman Brothers founded 1850 - survives 250 years - done in by the policies of Dubya and co in 8 years ! eeeek

    I don't really think Bush had much to do with this. The investment banks provide a really terrible product (high risk, low return investment) for a really high price. They've been losing customers for years, so when the mortgage companies came to them with their brilliant idea to make money by giving away free houses they jumped on it and bet the payroll.

    Obama is insisting that the financial system needs more regulation; unless this regulation somehow cures stupidity and greed I don't see how its going to fix things.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 927 posts Report

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