Posts by Craig Ranapia
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Emma Hart,
Port Hills voters vote for Dyson as a person, not an embodiment of a bunch of party ideology. She works bloody hard, she’s very prominent in the electorate, and she comes across very well as genuine and down to earth. It’s not a grand strategy, it’s people doing what they’re supposed to be doing with their candidate vote: picking the person they like.
Which, to float a crazy notion, may well be why a lot of people don't vote straight tickets. As Emma says, that's exactly what constituency MPs and their staff are supposed to do. It's no less real, important or worthy of respect because it seldom makes the six o'clock news. I was at dinner last night with a couple who'd just moved up from Christchurch and they both voted for Nicky Wagner because she and her electorate staff had been really helpful to them.
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Hard News: The sole party of government, in reply to Euan Mason,
David Cunliffe is a good man, but he didn’t connect with voters and couldn’t foot it with JK, the master media manipulator. For the good of NZ he needs to resign as leader.
Meh... I feel rather queasy standing up for Cunliffe (who I actually thought was solid if unspectacular), but unless he actually dictated every aspect of the campaign he deserves to get bumped down the queue of people waiting to get thrown under that bus. Of all people, Jeanette Fitzsimon made a good point on Nat Radio earlier -- in times of uncertainty a lot of people's instincts are small-c conservative. I definitely think it was was true in '02 and, to a lesser extent, three years later. I knew a hell of a lot of people who weren't tribal Labour, but they were doing OK more or less and the alternative was unconvincing if not actively terrifying. This morning Cunliffe kept talking about "a mood for change", but at the risk of being catty a million or so voters begged to differ - and their votes counted.
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Hard News: Decision 2014: Where to watch…, in reply to Bart Janssen,
They need to get out and understand what people in my electorate (Roskill) were actually trying to say when they voted for Goff but against Labour. There is a message there that Cunliffe and the party leadership is not hearing.
Jeanette Fitzsimons made a good point on Nat Radio earlier: When things are uncertain (even if you’re doing reasonably well) a lot of people instincts are small-c conservative. I'd argue Labour understood and played into that skilfully in both '02 & '05 and tapped into a pool of voters who weren't tribal Labour but were either ticking along OK or the alternatives scared the crap out of them.
Did Labour run a “change” campaign (like '84 or '99) when there was no real stomach for it? And I’d argue, a failure to clearly provide both the ask and the answer – the discontent and the alternative.
There’s plenty of arguments both pro and contra that thesis, but it’s worth thinking about.
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Hard News: Decision 2014: Where to watch…, in reply to Steve Barnes,
The difference is that the left don’t do the dirt like the professionals, they don’t do sneaky.
No, professionals wouldn't have done such a bang up job of derailing their whole campaign into a tabloid freakshow. I know this might be beyond belief, but I didn't talk to an awful lot of people who cared less about Cameron Slater and "the left" did a ratshit job of convincing them why they should. But it dominated the campaign, and I actually feel a lot of sympathy for Cunliffe's increasingly visible frustration at the noise exceeding the signal (and I think he performed pretty well when given the opportunity) but it's a little rich to blame the media for the blowback, and condescending to a million-or-so voters isn't really going to cut it either.
You're right about one thing though -- National did deserve a pounding in 2002, because it was failing utterly to talk about things people actually cared about in a manner they found convincing. As The Smiths put it, they just didn't earn it yet baby...
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Hard News: Time to Vote, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,
Ah, so you consider pity from polls. Ah, so you consider pity from polls. Brilliant. Polls that noone can understand at the best of times?
No, Sofie, but if I was in Auckland Central I’d seriously consider splitting my vote in a similar way if it increased the odds of returning two women I have an enormous amount of respect for. For the record, I probably wouldn’t have because Adern is effectively top of Labour’s list at #5, as it’s highly unlikely Cunliffe, Parker, King and Grant Robertson would all lose their electorates. (We've also had the secret ballot since 1870, so I have no idea who most people voted for and why, and that's as it should be.) The return also strongly suggests a lot of Auckland Central voters might have split their votes between Ardern and the Greens -- which probably pissed off Labour HQ but helped secure Green candidate Denise Roche a second term.
Like it or not (and you obviously don’t) vote splitting is perfectly legal and legitimate – even the ones that probably cost National Napier.
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Hard News: Time to Vote, in reply to Joe Wylie,
So with MMP you can candidate vote Labour while crossing your fingers behind your back and party voting National. Not many appear to do it the other way around though.
I actually know a couple of right-ish folks in Auckland Central who voted for Nikki Kaye but party voted Labour on the grounds that Jacinda Adern probably needed the back up more judging from the polls. Not a bad call on the whole, as things turned out.
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Hard News: Decision 2014: Where to watch…, in reply to Marc C,
This has NOT worked, the MSM deserves to be robustly criticised, even attacked, discredited and sidelined. It is time that Greens, Labour and others develop new media strategies, and run campaigns that do not rely on the “corrupt” media.
I'm sure the "blame the media" meme is going to be very tempting for large sections of the left, just as it was for too many bloody Tories after we got our arses slapped with a "RETURN TO SENDER" sticker in 2002 and deservedly so.
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Hard News: Time to Vote, in reply to tussock,
The internal ideological shit-fights over direction, just apply some fucking science, do some polling, and find out what should work, eh.
Or Plan B, actually ask some hard and honest questions about why so many incumbent Labour MPs, most of whom held their seats by considerable margins, couldn’t carry the party vote in their own patches. We’re not talking flaky swing seats but Labour heartlands like Christchurch East, Dunedin North (narrowly) and South, Port Hills, Rimutaka, Mt Albert, Mt Roskill, New Lynn, Rongotai, Wellington Central, Mana… And while I’m sure there’s some perfectly justified merry-making that Labour has held Palmerston North and picked up Napier, those electorate wins were most certainly not reflected on the other side of the ballot.
Figuring out that kind of disconnect, let alone reversing it, is going to take a wee bit more than polling and some serious soul searching about where they're pointing and how they're going to get there. It’s not easy, fast or pleasant (as National learned the hard way after 2002) but it needs to be done because I may be a Tory but I’m also a citizen who needs a strong and effective opposition.
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Hard News: Time to Vote, in reply to tussock,
Though then National can just give the nod to Conservative in a seat somewhere next time and get a free 4% extra. And give Winston some prizes for another 10% on that.
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Hard News: Time to Vote, in reply to Hilary Stace,
But heavy rain and cold wind have made it a very unpleasant day for a stroll to the polling booth.
It’s not particularly lovely here in Auckland either, but in a typical attempt to upstage the Aussies we’re not doing four seasons in one day but six to eight inside of five minutes. :) Still, our local booth was seeing typically steady traffic at 10.30 this morning.
Still, how can you grump after seeing some happy kid on her daddy's shoulders chanting "rainrainRAINrainrain" with a beatific grin and not a care in all the wide world?