Posts by stephen walker
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So far this is whites-only crisis.
as Goerge points out above, Mr. Keane appears to have some slightly misinformed opinions...
unless of course the Tokyo Stock Exchange is a now whites-only instituion?
broadest measure of the TSE is the TOPIX index.
it is currently scraping along just under 830. down 8.3% for the day so far...yesterday it was up a tiny bit but Wednesday it lost 9%. looks to have gone from about 1170 to 830 in 12 trading days. that's a drop of 29%. this is starting to look ominous, IMHO.
the recent peak in TOPIX was about 1800, just 15 months ago. so it's lost over 50% since then. whites only, eh? whatever.let's see,
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index looks like it's down about 45% this year
China's CSI 300 index looks to have lost about 65% this year
Taipei seems to be off 44% since May
Seoul's main index down 34% since May
Thailand and India both look to be approaching falls of 50% this year...but of course, the stock market doesn't matter, according so some people. how about a complete meltdown of US-European banking? will that matter? mmmm...tricky.
i have to ask though, how could China be insulated from this mess when it's economy is so utterly driven by exports? domestic consumption is tiny as a proportion of the total economy compared with OECD countries. no, i would suggest that if exports seize up, there will be big problems with unemployment in China.
as for good articles to get a handle on what is going on and why in the financial meltdown, this piece by Prof. Herman Daly (expert on the steady-state economy) is a good place to start, IMO. BTW, Nandor threw in some interesting references to Prof. Daly in his speech during the Budget Debate this year. That speech alone is enough to convince me who to give my party vote this year. Even if Nandor is no longer in the House.
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except the S&L crisis was sooooooo tiny and minor compared with what we are witnessing now.
i'm not being facetious either. it was a big deal then.
but the magnitude of the current "problem" is, well, almost incomprehensible.
you may have noticed that more than 30% of all US bank deposits are held by just three banks. this is unprecedented.
and the UK has way more concentration now. and Benelux, etc.
"last man standing" scenario. "too big to fail". except they're not.
US$700 billion is just the final chance to loot the treasury before it all disappears into one big deleveraging black hole.
yum. -
what?
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sorry, slightly off topic but...
i think all these state primary schools in AKL requiring all the kids to wear uniforms (bought from a specific shop) is complete bollocks.
adds nothing, detracts a lot.
f-ing crass and a waste of money.
rant over. as you were. -
@Tony,
yes. Orlov is a very smart character with some very interesting insights.
have to read that book. have to. must read. top of the book list.
starting to sound repetative... -
five years at a large, state single-sex school.
next door we even had a real prison!and more rugby teams than you could shake a stick at (about 23 at the time).
and a former All Black captain as Headmaster!
and all-year-round shorts from day one until the end of 7th form.
the uniform thing was symptomatic of what i concluded was the worst aspect of this school. generally, the pupils got treated in the same manner, whether they were 13-year-old boys or 18-year-old young men. same uniforms, same surname-only mode of address, same kinds of silly punishment, etc. i gradually came to realize why so many of the sixth and seventh formers acted so childishly all the time--because they were treated like children all the time!
but luckily, there were lots of good things about the school too. it wasn't all rugby. there was every kind of sport and cultural activity you could possibly think of. and a lot of dedicated teachers (and some no-hopers).
the best thing about the place, i decided, was probably quite surprising to outsiders. the headmaster was extremely conservative, to say the least. but he was also quite smart. he and the other senior teachers, whom i imagine had control over teacher hiring, bought in all sorts of people with all sorts of backgrounds and strengths. although the staff were overwhelmingly Pakeha, there was a huge cross-section of personalities and interests represented, and it made a big difference. there was even a sizeable contingent of gay teachers. i think the main thing was not to look too radical or out of place and stick to a few basic rules.
all in all, one learnt that there were good and bad aspects to being in a large, bureacratic institution ;-)
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</quote>Simian Mobile Sound System</quote>
i assume you mean Simian Mobile Disco?
if so, these people (???) followed Underworld at an all-night gig in Tokyo (well, Makuhari) last November.
(Oblivion Ball: Underworld, The Orb, Simian Mobile Disco, 120 Days, Andrew Weatherall)
all i can say is...be there...in the correct state of mind.
you may never be the same again. -
I'm asking about the value of the assets the US Government will receive in exchange for its funds.
well, if they pay US$700 billion for the assets (sic), of course the assets will be worth $700 billion. Boom boom! Would you like fries with that, sir? The assets (sic) are worth whatever the market is willing to pay. In this case, the "market" is the US govt. Now, if the US govt. then offers these purchased assets (sic) to the market at a later stage, well, let's just say there is some downside risk involved.
A financial system that is still capable of giving them mortgages, 401K, capital for businesses to grow and provide jobs, that sort of thing.
"give us all your cash and valuables, or we torch the place"
charming!
(i especially like the idea of having a financial system (sic) still capable of "giving" mortgages. Boom boom!
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the United States Congress is so utterly captured by monied special-interest groups (pharma, health insurance, industrial ag, armaments, AIPAC, coal, financial, etc., etc., etc.), that American taxpayers can expect NOTHING in return for their trillions dollar moralhazardathon. this cycle is destined to continue ad nauseum until the furrners stop buying US Treasuries. essentially, that point will be the end of the US dollar and the federal government. when the flow of petrodollars and eastasiadollars stops coming back to D.C., the show will be over.
default by the US govt = end of US federal govt. how far off is that? pick your date for the office sweepstakes! best fun since the 1986 Melbourne Cup, eh?
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and of course Paulson isn't conspiring with anyone to get his Wall Street mates out of their multi-trillion dollar hole.
way too much moral harard and way too obvious a ruse to be a (gasp) conspiracy.
you'd have to be nuts to think such a thing. too much tinfoil for breakfast.