Posts by BenWilson
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Sacha,
The Maori Party represents wealthy Maori interests as well - just like the Greens represent a wider spectrum than the stereotype.
Sure, but the majority of Maori are not wealthy, indeed they are the least wealthy racial class in this country, and the most affected by all of our social ills. I can't see them surviving if they continue to openly act in the interests of wealthy Maori.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Rob Stowell,
The left needs to talk, listen, argue and develop an alternative, more collective and communal vision for the country. That’s work, and it needs working on :)
Amen. I certainly don't claim to have the answers to deepening recession from an economic perspective - indeed I think our economy will tank no matter what government we have, because it's an international trend for economies like ours. Globalization is redistributing wealth away from countries like NZ, and will continue to do so until an answer is found, or we reach the value that our labour is actually worth in a world market, which isn't very much above the Third World.
Which is why I think economic fairness is more vital than ever - unless we also want our social makeup to look Third World. Child poverty is already extremely shameful here, but it's got a long way to fall still, if an increasing rich/poor divide is the path we continue down.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Rob Stowell,
But the Conservative Party vote ain’t left.
They were opposed to asset sales, though. However, I agree to your broader point that a National government is likely. I'm just finding the whole business of lining up how the government is going to be when it very likely could be a coalition with a group of people who purportedly represent the most oppressed class of NZers of all, premature.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Sacha,
That would reduce their ability to negotiate any concessions - and Turia said point blank yesterday that being in opposition offers them "Nothing".
It might offer them a future. But why am I not surprised that Turia, who will retire, doesn't see that as anything? The question on my mind is how it will be seen by the long line of hui they have said they will be attending prior to making a firm decision. Is getting a small piece of a colossal round of asset sales really what the Maori Party is prepared to die in a ditch over?
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Craig Ranapia,
I guess if Key had said he was off to the beach and would have a quick ring around in a couple of weeks you'd be cursing him as an arrogant twatcock. Unless I've really missed something, I don't see any great "desperation" in anything Key's said over the last 36 hours.
He's been picking the new Labour leader himself. All right "desperately" is overegging it. "Hopefully" is closer to true - because they surely can't think the Maori Party so stupid as to enter serious negotiations until the numbers are actually known.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Craig Ranapia,
I've been loudly and publicly rude enough about iPredict that even my lack of shame stops at gambling the grocery money there... :)
I must have blinked and missed it. But so what? If you really find anything meaningful in gambling arguments, all the infrastructure is right there in place for you to put your money where your mouth is, as so many gamblers are fond of saying. I don't personally like to gamble on that kind of market because it's a zero sum game minus the house's cut, which is a total waste of money. But I acknowledge that it's been an extremely accurate predictor. The Stratos show was also very good watching with a wide variety of people who had been denied mainstream media voices giving extremely incisive commentary. Something about the cold evaluation of odds took away the partisan antipathy that often arises and kills sense when opposed speakers discuss politics. It didn't matter in the slightest that Bomber is extremely left wing, and made no secret of it at all, indeed that just added humor to the show.
The only heated moment was Hooton having a go at Hone. Hone showed aplomb that is counter to all opinions of him that I've heard to date. I think it was a ploy by Hooton to see if he could provoke a mongrel response, but there wasn't even the least flicker in Hone's eyes. Seasoned campaigner there.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Sacha,
not sure how, from what I've seen discussed about specials.
There are some scenarios with even quite a small movement that have National losing 2 seats. When it's as tight as it is, it's no wonder the Right are desperately trying to negotiate a coalition before the votes are actually counted. The Maori Party should hold on to see whether their leverage is minor or total - it could make a huge difference to the deal they cut.
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What would the expense have actually been? The ballots get numbered, so there's a tiny printing cost, and the scrutineers write the number down for each person that gets a ballot, which is free (but might take a little bit of time). Is there something else I'm missing?
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Joshua Arbury,
In other words in 2014 we could have a Labour PM but National be the largest party. Hopefully the country is mature enough to handle such an outcome.
That was the outcome the left wanted in THIS election. And it is still actually possible, as an outside shot, however much the Herald has called it for Key. Having got their Digipolls so wrong, I'm not even paying attention to their stupid predictions at the moment. The whole thing could be torn from under them if the Maori Party decides that being spanked into oblivion in 2014 isn't what they spent all that time building a party for.
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Shame the TAB doesn't take bets on the election, because anyone who called that would be my new best friend. :)
Dude, iPredict. You can gamble on there to your heart's content. It's been around for quite a while and it was by far the most accurate predictor.
I'm not sure how they handle dead-heats, though. The house wins?? LOL.
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