Posts by Trevor Nicholls
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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to simon g,
And this is why they lie.
There were at least three blatant lies (all repeated when challenged) in last night's leaders debate: Labour raising income tax (they aren't, and under Bill's logic if the Nats need Winston in government the Nats will be raising income taxes too), Labour's $11.7B fiscal hole, and Bill's absolute constitutional right as the incumbent to get to try to form a government first (even a minority government?). You can bet Bill knows better on all three questions.
Before he became PM Bill had a reputation for integrity but he appears to have cast that aside this year (starting with his duplicity over the Todd Barclay saga I think). -
Hard News: Campaign 2017: Buy a…, in reply to Neil,
Quite incredible that this is actually being seriously advocated.
You obviously haven't seen some of the Jacinda attack ads being posted on social media then
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All this fuss about commitments and changed commitments. In an MMP world, it simply isn't possible for one party to make guarantees like that unless they are also going to guarantee not to enter into any coalition.
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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to Dennis Frank,
Interpretation of scientific results is inherently subjective - despite most scientists being addicted to their denial of this fact.
This isn't true. Scientists are generally aware of the difference between reporting facts and offering interpretation, and scientists generally seek to test their interpretations by constructing experiments which will either convert interpretation into fact or dismiss it as erroneous speculation.
Perhaps you are confusing scientists with paid consultants.
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Every polling company has to decide how representative their sample is of the wider electorate. This is usually done with a few questions where the responses can be tested against known big statistics - race, gender, age, etc. Then they have to make assumptions as to how likely various subgroups in their sample/in the wider electorate are to actually vote, etc, etc. The dark arts of opinion pollsters. What we've got here is probably not due to a volatile electorate so much as it is the result of a big difference in the polling models of the two companies. And we won't know which one was right until election day (and even then we can't be certain!)
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Well the disparities in these polls are unnerving...
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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?, in reply to izogi,
This result?
Yes. Somehow between screen and brain and keyboard housing became switched with education. I don't think it changes the point I was making though; health, housing and the environment is still a good combination for the left.
If you're somebody who is concerned about how the country has been coping with those three issues, why vote for more of the same? Because the right wing is not offering any real changes, their story is we've been managing pretty well, don't take the risk of a Labour/Green government. -
Hard News: Campaign 2017: Buy a…, in reply to Neil,
Are you implying guilt by association with China and suggesting this is purely a racist smear?
Because (trying to be objective, and not normally a racist person) I'd think somebody with a history of working for a foreign intelligence agency - whichever nation it happened to be - ought to have their loyalties questioned, regardless of race or geopolitical alignment. Deception and duplicity, you know, it's what spies *do*. -
Hard News: Campaign 2017: Buy a…, in reply to Neil,
I don't think he deserves to be hounded in a Chinese sounding names manner.
Presumably you'd agree that a 16 year hiatus in a CV is worthy of some investigation, however.
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So we learned on tonight's news that yesterday's poll showed that the 3 most important priorities for the sampled voters were: health, education and the environment. All issues that you would think favour the left. Very strange that this same poll gave National 47% of their support, wouldn't you think?