Posts by stephen walker
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prohibition doesn't work.
i wonder how difficult it is for mr anderton to understand this simple statement of fact, which can be backed up with much more convincing data and arguments than the bogus "harm index".
despite prohibition and the exorbidant financial and social costs caused by prohibition (not the drug use, which cause significantly less costs), prohibition is all we get. decade in, decade out. dumpty-doo. it's not working mr anderton. it's still not working...
people still use drugs that have been arbitrarity made illegal.
organized crime continues to profit from prohibition.
if all the resources spent on the police and courts was directed into education and health, the country would be much better off, imho. -
Oil isn't running out? I thought the fact that oil was formed in the past means that it's finite... you know, has a beginning and an end...
yes, at human time scales, petroleum is finite. new stuff will not form to replace the stuff we've used up in just over 100 years. that would take several tens of millions of years.
but do you really think humans are capable of extracting every last drop from all the earth's porous rock?
have you ever looked at a "normal distribution" curve?
"long tail" might ring a bell.rather than "run out" i reckon in the end humans will be incapable of extracting petroleum with any net energy gain.
in other words, the stuff will still be there, but it will take more energy to get it out than the energy contained in the oil.
negative return on investment.
bit of a loosing scenario... -
oil is going to run out
nah.
living in the last days of oil
you missed an important word: CHEAP
"living in the last days of cheap oil"
so, if you've got the cash, they've got the oil.
free market, and all that. supply, demand, blah, blah, blah.so a scooter sounds like a good idea.
pedal power is quieter though.i wonder how expensive petrol will have to get before the north shorians start begging for an electricfied train line under the harbour?
$10/litre?
we'll see, sooner than you probably think... -
thanks for the link to your namesake, George ;-)
i barely visit the Guardian Unlimited site anymore, unless someone points me to a specific article.
very topical indeed...
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"beset by huge challenges"
yes.
but as "rich world" consumers, we have a choice about what we buy and from whom.
how we exercise that choice does affect people at the other end of the production chain, even if we don't want to acknowlege the fact.
so, I think the "fair trade" movement is one legitimate response to this moral dilemma.but really, the "little guy" angle is important for other, less obvious, reasons too.
like, the industrial agriculture model is doomed to end in tears, for a number of reasons:
-wrecked soil
-depleted water resources
-polluted rivers/lakes/seas
-expensive/scarce petroleum/natgas for machinery/agrichems
-narrowing of the crop gene pool increasing vulnerability to failurejust to name a few.
anyway, i think it is a good idea to have a mutually positive relationship with the people who are producing your food.
and i really don't think the big food multinationals care about much except their profits over the next 12 quarters or so. after that, all bets are off.
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primary production, David?
who needs food, clothing and shelter?
nah, just live in a 24-hr mcDees. prob solved.but really, what we need is everyone on the planet to emulate (self-identifying) middle class nz-ers or americans.
driving their suvs 80km/day and hanging out at st***ucks.
no need for fair trade beans then, eh? -
re: expunging the 1976 earthquake from history
must be following the Cheney/Rumsfeld school of PR--
if one pretends something never hapened, the facade becomes reality as quickly as one can say "CNN".but i forgot--
Cheney/Rumsfeld learnt their skills by carefully studying the history of the CCP. -
i agree with Che.
but you have to remember that if interest rates move from 8% p.a. to 10% p.a., then the mortgagee is facing a 25% increase in debt servicing costs.
so, for a $300,000 mortgage, your weekly interest bill would move from $460 to $575. an extra $115 is not a huge sum, but it has to come from somewhere.
i really think that people whose household income is 50-80K, are foolish to borrow 300-400K for a house. 5-6x annual gross income seems way over the top to me. especially if that income is dependent on two earners.
with food, petrol and all sorts of prices set to expose the official infation statistics as a charade, any deterioration in employment could really see middle class nz take a hit.
the real wild card is the nz dollar, imho. if that bubble bursts...ouch.
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Emma,
i enjoyed reading your post.
both the topic and writing style appeal, so I hope you will be back with some more in the near future!the Chinese government agencies' certainly seem to know how to play to a local audience. but their lack of PR skills vis-a-vis the outside world is pretty startling at times. sorta reminds me of certain other countries in the 'hood...
the fact that their propaganda is so transparent is good, though. the Orwellian pronouncements can just be taken at Owellian face value! night is day. black is white. war is peace. easy once you get the hang of it.
but this "we want the Olympics (to increase our prestige) but keep all those (insert friendly adjective of choice) foreigners outa here!" is a bit beyond my modest decryption skills.
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Post WWII Japan springs immediately to mind, but no others.
Kyle,
i don't think even Japan's rise is in the same league.
sure, in 1945, the country's urban centres were reduced to ashes.
but Japan was one of the world's industrial powerhouses in the 1930s.
the population had a very high average level of education and prior to the war poverty was not a big problem. so they had to replace all their destroyed infrastructure, but the social base was in place.but China has gone from mass starvation/cultural revolution madness and a very modest industrial base to political and economic superstardom in 30 years.
i just cannot think of any parallels in such a short time frame.
China is now the world's largest holder of US government debt.