Posts by BenWilson
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Field Theory: Four Years Ago, in reply to recordari,
It would also seem that anger and finger pointing isn’t going to make things better, so a calm retrospective analysis would likely be a good thing
Yup, if you actually used MSM news as your source, you'd think that the mood at the wharfs was ugly, when in fact it wasn't. I'm pretty sure everyone there got that the numbers pressing in were unexpected, and that meant plans had to change. Furthermore, it was a change for the better, that such a crowd is just never seen outside of a rock concert, and is a real spectacle of its own.
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I'd also like to add that the festivities had started hours earlier for me - Avondale Primary ran their own opening ceremony, every class had chosen a team and dressed and face-painted accordingly. The hall echoed to the massed chants (a little oddity "U S A, U S A" was an especially penetrating one!). Zane's eyes boggled at the sight, and Marcus chanted "Go, Canada" with gusto. Then the Principal gave an address that put John Key's to shame, the kids were well rarked by the end, as he introduced the guest speaker, a veteran from the famous Manu Samoa team, who shared the motivational secret that had preceded their famous victory over Argentina. He then did the challenge dance of his team. I noticed lots of wet eyes amongst the Samoan parents.
Then the main event began, two senior classes clashed in a game of "ripper rugby", a version of touch. One of the classes did a haka at least as spirited as the one given by the All Blacks last night, the other class stood their ground on halfway, as the tension mounted.
In a curious parallel of last night's game, one team was clearly dominant, with at least 5 very talented little athletes, but the other team had resolve. So whilst red scored try after try (I got a fantastic full field length one on camera), the white team worked hard for one try, capitalizing on a knock on, and the pressure eventually got the smallest boy on the field over the line, and he was patted on the back by friend and foe alike, as the whole school cheered.
I then attempted to find a decent flag, having the 2-dollar shops of Avondale at easy reach. But no, they had done roaring trade, and no All Blacks, nor even just a Silver Fern, were to be found in 10 shops I tried. I had to settle for the tedious old Jack&Stars. Wearing my All Blacks shirt, I enjoyed trash talk from locals the entire time, with the exception of the Chinese, who would seem to be All Blacks supporters without exception (if they support any team...I expect they don't care much, but were enjoying the festive mood).
My favourite trash talk was from one of the Red team, wallowing in his victory, who said to me "Marcus's Dad? I'm sorry to tell you this, sir, but your team will be thrashed tonight, that's just how it is!". His Tongan friends all smiled and nodded, and I smiled and wished them well.
And they did very well. I had my fist in the air for their try, a very well earned culmination of nearly 20 minutes of pressure and control. Well done, Tonga! Good luck against France, then it's the quarters!
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The two things I most wanted to see were the waka arriving, and the procession and mass haka of the 600 warriors. I figured that half an hour from Downtown foodcourt would be sufficient to find somewhere to see these things. I was wrong.
Half an hour was enough time to get from there to the middle of Quay St (a distance of about 200 meters). The crowd press was that deep. But the vibe was incredible, I could hardly give a stuff, there was that much fascination in a crowd phenomenon like that, where the entire length from Queens wharf to the Wynyard Bridge was shoulder to shoulder from building to fences.
Spontaneous haka erupted everywhere - several schools had camped prime locations and gave near continual entertainment from vantage points along the strip. The black shirts were everywhere, but so were every other kind, and the demographics were predominantly young, but the full range was present, from newborns strapped to their mums, and pushchair drivers wending their way at the same crawl as everyone else to old folks, everyone milling around without a plan, mostly appearing to be soaking the vibe and just people-watching, with a basic thronging press that was infectious, to say the least.
Security appeared to be taxed, and were polite but curt. We wended our way gradually toward the Viaduct, a work of about 15 minutes, to see the waka already moored in the harbor, and solid crowds all around the entire Viaduct. Every bollard had some standing on it, like sentinels, gazing out. I had to use my camera like a periscope to work out what was coming up, and spotted the approaching spears of the procession, so we camped down, to watch a very impressive array of Maori pass by over a period of about 20 minutes. We tracked this down - they were unable to outpace the crowd anyway, and the haka from the schoolboys stepped up a notch, tongues lolled, eyes rolled, as they competed school vs school to catch the attention of the warriors passing below. We were unable to see the mass haka - I wasn't sure if they simply changed their plans, and many of the tail end appeared to just do their part as they walked. Footage afterward showed something like a mass haka, but it clearly wasn't 600 people, that had become unfeasible (I think - was anyone else right there to correct me?).
Then DD began, amidst a general cheer - lots of head bobbing and dancing in front of the huge screen on the side that was working. My wife and I were becoming footsore by this point, and some txt finally located where our friends were, over in Wynyard. We headed over there (15 mins work) and caught up with them as the sun set. Most people were just soaking up the scene.
Not long after, it became apparent that the beautiful weather had the downside of a very cold night approaching and common sense meant that staying to watch the game there was going to be uncomfortable as hell, since there was nowhere to sit for miles. Thoughts of getting something to eat were dispelled by the 50 person queues at every kiosk, fish and chippery, the restaurants were packed or running private functions, and we hadn't brought anything. The friends' kids were getting cold and antsy, so we left party central to those hardened to rock-concert conditions, and headed to friends house. It took 15 mins to get to Grey Lynn using a taxi, cost $10. It was a no-brainer.
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Field Theory: Four Years Ago, in reply to bmk,
The irony is (according to twitter) everyone who drove had no problems are just suggesting that people just drive in future. How they expect tourists who don't have cars to do this - I don't know.
Catch a taxi? I did that from the Wynyard Quarter to the friends place we went to for the ceremony and game. It took all of 2 mins to find one, and 10 mins to get back to Grey Lynn. In fact, we were that quick that the people who drove got there 10 mins after us because they had to walk to their car.
As for the bus ride in, I drove to drop the kids off at my folks place and every single bus stop on the way had 30-40 people waiting at it. Then walked up to the bus stop, using only knowledge acquired 25 years ago as a schoolkid, that it's a good idea to go a stop back down the line, if you want to get there quickly. The bus came in a minute, we all boarded and filled the bus to capacity. We passed the next 5 stops in front of dismayed crowds. When we reached Ponsonby someone on the bus said "Goodness, why don't they walk? It's not that far...", to which another replied "that's easy for us to say, we're on the bus".
My wife wanted to eat, I suggested Albert St food court, which would have been the best choice (as always, people), being accustomed to being extremely busy, and appearing to be at nothing more than a typically lunch rush. But she wanted a burger so we went to Downtown food court. That was a mistake, it was the most crowded that I have ever seen a food court anywhere in the world. Burger King had about 150 people queuing, so we decided to grab a slice of pizza instead (which took 1 minute to acquire). I attempted a tweet, but it was clear that I was unlikely to get my data connection. Indeed txts were iffy for the next couple of hours, failing up to 10 times in a row.
We had deliberately left all plans open, because I knew in my gut that what happened last night would happen, that dour kiwis miserably griping about the RWC for months beforehand would turn around in one day, once they came to grips with what is actually happening in the city right now, how we have never had anything this big going on, and it's right here, right now. The advice to travel early given on every sign for 20 miles yesterday was well given and should have been well heeded by anyone expecting to attend a game they had paid for.
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....(blogging from phone hence bad style). Took 2 min to find taxi to friends. Now in warm luxury settling back with drinks food and company. Go ABs! Over and out.
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Field Theory: Four Years Ago, in reply to Paul Williams,
Love it!
Been in and out of downtown. Saw procession and mass haka. Dobbyn on big screens. Crowd, incredible. Huge. Ridiculous. Wonderful. Real buzz.
Took bus in. Luck of Irish ancestry meant 1 min wait, bus full to brim so became express. Walked down albert st had snack. From there it was shoulder to shoulder for the next 3 hours.
Nowhere downtown to eat or drink. Getting cold, met friends. Opted to head back
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I received an award at work in Australia in 1999 for being so confident in the All Blacks that I didn't even know they'd been knocked out until I was informed by jeering colleagues as they arrived to find me hard at work, cheerfully oblivious. My actual excuse is I don't take rugby seriously. It's a bit of a laugh, nice to see the ABs win, but mostly about social get-togethers.
The huge sense of national gloom that washes over NZ has never made sense to me - having been a dedicated sportsman myself in my youth, I learned that luck is a big factor. Also from both victories and losses, that the feeling of them fades quite rapidly, and the only really lasting thing is the camaraderie. It was quite strange to beat Wellington in the National Provincial grand final, by one goal, having saved 2 penalties, the culmination of a hard year's training, to find that the glow of the win had faded by nightfall, and I was back to thinking about paying the rent, and what changes I needed to make to some software at work. It might matter a lot more to a professional sportsman, but to an amateur? Nah. To a spectator - why should it matter at all? Time to congratulate the winners, get some drinks, have a chat and a laugh and crack on to some hot chicks, that's all finals ever meant to me. That's what sport is like from the inside - why is it so damned tribal on the outside? When you've got quite literally nothing invested at all other than a teensy bit of national pride, to feel dark depression at the All Blacks losing, rather than just joy that the better team won, and at now being in a party with diverse and interesting company, is a mystery to me. It's like the less truly involved people are, the more they care.
I actually wept with joy when South Africa beat NZ in South Africa. It was a little bit of disappointment, but it was also seeing something far more important happening, that the black president who had no so long ago been imprisoned, was joyously celebrating the win, and the white South Africans could finally feel what it was like to win international tournaments again, now that they had changed their stupid, evil ways. If there was ever any real point in sports, that was it, how could I possibly feel any lasting bitterness?
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That kind of bet is usually an insurance policy. You've upped your risk profile if you're also banking on the schadenfreude. I'm not sure what the German word for "sorrow one feels at missing out on schadenfreude" (verlorenschadenfreudenschade, vielleicht?), but you stand a good chance of feeling that, AND losing your money.
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Field Theory: Four Years Ago, in reply to Yamis,
Don't know about that. It would only bring us up level with SA and OZ in terms of wins. If you look at a broader view then it's a bit debatable depending on what angle you take.
Yes, I did the sums a few weeks ago, and it was an evaluation not just of wins and losses in the tournament, but also placings. Consider also that if ABs win this time, that means the others have to have losses added into their totals.
However, good point, SA have had two less tourneys. That's something I hadn't counted. It's a little tricky, just off the example of a team that joined for the first time and won the tournament, making their win ratio 100%. Does that really make them the most successful? If you rank boxers, you don't place someone who has won their only fight above a champion of with 30 wins and 1 loss. Mind you, if that one win happens to be against that champ...hmmm tricky.
So yes, it's hard to get ahead of the SA record. But I think it would put us ahead of Oz - they have failed to make the top 4 twice, that's only happened to the ABs once. It would really depend where SA ended.
Interestingly, if France won, it would put them even with the ABs...they have done very well to get into the top 4. 5 out of 6 times. They're the team I'd most like to see win, if NZ doesn't, it would blow the southern hemisphere dominance wide open, and massively invigorate interest in the sport. Also, it would be very poignant, them having lost the final in Eden Park back in 1987. But only if they actually deserve it, of course. The best outcome is always that the team that plays best wins.
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Field Theory: Four Years Ago, in reply to 3410,
Just kidding. I think I get that you're saying that there are too many variables for prediction to be a very useful endeavour.
To any person who likes to gamble, it's useful to do it with numbers. If you can do this kind of actuarial analysis, and the crowd of punters can't, and the odds flip all over the place, you can probably make good money on average by doing exactly that kind of analysis, and picking your time to bet. In fact, if you can work out the baselines of all the teams you can pick the right time to bet on all of them, and make certain money.
I made this probability point 22 days ago but without all the lovely probabilities in a table. Good find, 3410. I'm surprised that they rate us so high, really. Us having a 47% chance of winning seems impossibly high.
If we do win, I'm pretty sure that will also instantly make us the most successful team of all time in RWCs, all results considered. I hope that happens and the poms can choke on their choking comments.
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