Posts by stephen walker
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good summary neil.
but you forgot this one:all the cheap oil is used up, here comes the (really) expensive stuff!
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you haven't been reading cryptogon have you Nat?
Prices in NZ for most things are outrageous. Especially eating out and admission prices for attractions. It makes Japan look cheap.
The only thing I thought was a good deal were the B&Bs. Butter, cream and soda water were cheap in Pak'n'Save. The Chinese vege shop next door to Pak'n'Save Royal Oak was cheap too. Everything else just about was a rip.
I seriously cannot understand how people on ordinary wages afford to live.
I cannot imagine what is going to happen to prices when the NZ$ becomes toast. $5/litre petrol anyone?
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just to clarify the link posted by Joe above:
Discussions of the sustainability of the US current-account deficit—trending upward from $800bn—rarely plumb the long-term motives of its creditors. Taggart Murphy analyses the historical roots of Tokyo’s post-1868 geofinancial support for the ruling superpower, London or Washington, and the implications of China’s rise for Japanese strategy."
i started reading this very long article last year but unfortunately got sidetracked and never got back to it. well worth a read, though.
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so I/S's thesis is that only 20% of the appreciation of the nz$ is due to high interest rates? and the rest of the appreciation is due to...falling US$ and JPY, which we have no control over.
no, sorry, can't accept that. nz has one of the highest current account deficits in the developed world as a percentage of GDP. kind of on par with the US. Japan has one of the highest current account surpluses. the yen is being held artificially low against other currencies, especially the US$ and NZ$, for political reasons and by the yen carry trade. when the yen carry trade reverses, due to some sort of financial crisis, the impact on the NZ dollar will be massive. as in, loud sucking sound as all the hot money escapes.
oh, and another point about what Russell asked: the yen and yuan are effectively pegged tot he US dollar, so asian import prices are not rising in the US. Only euro-based prices.
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In a massively importing economy, shouldn't households be feeling the squeeze? Yet I can't recall reading any commentary of that nature.
have you heard of the sub-prime mortgage fiasco?
and keep an eye on the US retail sales stats, especially the "excluding gasoline" figure.
oh, and personal bankruptcies, credit card payments in arrears, etc. -
why do you all ignore the yen? this situation is overwhelmingly driven by the yen carry trade. and contrary to the pathetic NZ media, that doesn't mean japanese housewives buying nz dollar retail bonds. how glib. no, the yen carry trade involves US-based hedge funds borrowing billions of yen from japanese banks at ultralow interest rates, selling the yen and buying nz dollars, Aus dollars or other high-yielding currencies. this money coming in is what fuels our housing "boom" (bubble).
in 12 months the nz dollar has appreciated MORE against the yen than against the US dollar--up 35%.
Even at the current parity, prices and wages in NZ are much lower than in most other developed countries.
wages, yes. prices, no.
prices in NZ are out of control at the current exchange rate. most things are cheaper in japan. basics: food, rent, transport, etc. a direct reversal of five years ago. -
How about a larger bureaucracy, minimum elected reps, & all votes by referendum? A true Democracy, power directly to the people. The bureaucracy would be there to inform the public on the issues to be voted on.
and what would you have in lieu of select committees and public submissions to arrive at the final wording of a bill?
and would each refurendum consist of dozens of votes, one for each clause of a bill?
and if some clauses got a majority and some didn't, how would you fix up all the resulting holes in legislation?there are a lot of potential problems (to put it mildly) in trying to govern four million people by referendum. who decides on the questions put? who decides on the wording of the questions? your enlarged bureaucracy, perhaps? how would you prevent monied interests from manipulating the process through advertising, etc?
i put it to you that the problem with our MMP/party-based system is not the politicians but the people who vote, or don't vote, for them. we get the politicians we deserve.
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faux philosophy of science bollox
come on kowhai, truth is science and science is truth. get with the program!
なんちゃって。
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the Green's basic hypocrisy over this issue. The line for GM was don't use until proven safe as far as I can gather.
I'm not trying to defend an apparent hypocracy, but (hahaha, I knew you'd like that "but")...
the GE debate concerned the potential release of novel organisms into the NZ environment, with potentially far-reaching and unknown consequences for other species and our organics sector (not to mention other sectors). So it is essentially about managing risk in a prudent manner. The issue of whether one wants to consume GE products is separate, and can be addressed mainly through accurate labelling and rigorous consumer protection regulations. Let the buyer beware, give them a right to information, individual choice, etc.
So this issue of regulation of natural therapies and acceding to an Australian agency and regime is quite different, I would have thought, from the GE release issue. As Mikaere said, the Greens are NOT opposed to regulation, but this bill was a steaming load of sh...compost.
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I totally agree with Mikaere's two posts.
and all the ad hom attacks on Kedgley are really boring and pointless. does anyone want to provide non-urban-legend evidence re: Kedgley and water?
(an email reply apparaently from someone in Kedgley's office saying: "I know Sue would be absolutely supportive of the campaign to ban this toxic substance in NZ" just doesn't cut it. please see Hard News 26/10/01 for something closer to the truth: "The little stunt this week - in which an unfortunate temp in Sue Kedgley's office replied to a letter...")another thing: why does not wanting to hand control over to an Australian agency = xenophobia?