Posts by BenWilson
Last ←Newer Page 1 2 3 4 5 Older→ First
-
Hard News: Limping Onwards, in reply to Che Tibby,
my 2c (again), is a National/Maori coalition, with Labour no-where near in the running.
I think Che's got the smart money. The Maori Party has good reason to be stoked about their deal with National right now.
I'd like a leadership change, but my main reason is because I've disliked Goff intensely since the 80s. But considering that I doubted 2 years ago that National would lose the next election, I didn't mind the leader being Goff because it meant we'd be rid of him by 2012, and thus finally rid of the legacy of 1980s Labour.
Labour won't win, but it is beholden on them to actually produce policy. That way they can say something about what things might have been like if they'd been elected - there's a good chance that the economy won't have recovered even by 2014, in which case we're definitely in a depression rather than a recession, and a New Deal is precisely what will be needed.
As for Tizard, can anyone forgive her for losing Auckland Central?
-
Fair enough, indeed that was rather what I was saying - the Black Hawk Down incident became a focal point for a very general disinclination to even be involved in Somalia. I doubt a similar event in Libya would cause such a reaction. Nor would it happen anyway - for starters because they don't use helicopters to enforce no-fly zones.
-
Hard News: Libya, in reply to Rich Lock,
Although it has been argued that it wasn't so much the loss of life as the fact that America woke up to TV pictures of the corpses of US soliders being dragged through the streets that caused the furore.
These things happen in war. So I still think the point is that their hearts weren't in it. It may well have been the costliest since Vietnam, but when you consider that they lost around 50,000 soldiers in Vietnam, many of whom suffered far worse than some posthumous indignities, it makes you appreciate how much their taste for war had declined since Vietnam. Also, conversely, how much it has risen again, since Bush.
-
Hard News: Libya, in reply to glennd,
Somalia was a similar effort but is remembered in the popular psyche as a massive US embarassment, blackhawk down and a huge propaganda tool for Islamists.
Yes, it was rather strange that the loss of one helicopter caused such a furore. It told me at the time that their hearts were totally not in it. Since they've now lost thousands of lives in Iraq, perhaps they've realized once again that war is dangerous. They don't let the media at bodybags any more.
Still he might get lucky and Ghadaffi might backdown, you never know.
Or the rebels could seize power, and he could dress up in some military gear and host a "Mission Accomplished" party.
But the real source of his ongoing chances will be when the Republicans hit the campaign trail, and their total lack of script comes into sharp focus.
-
I think National are quite happy with Goff continuing to be the head.
-
He's "The Great New Zealand One Kg of Cheese" (tm). The kind of cheese you'd buy for a group of assorted NZers, if you were only allowed one kind of cheese, and wanted to put it on everything. A money saving cheese. The kind of cheese we had before we knew there were different kinds of cheese. The cheese that makes you feel patriotic when you eat it.
-
Hard News: Libya, in reply to glennd,
A year is a long time and Obama is making many things look possible.
Yes, he inherited a total disaster from Bush, and has only done slow sensible things to solve it. Since these things take time, he may get the hammer. Or then again, when the alternatives are considered, it might turn out that Republican management still looks as bat-shit crazy as it did when he got elected.
George W, for all his faults, at least took the decisions and stood behind them.
GW's decisions were his faults. Almost everything he did turned to shit. In fact, it was so bad the whole world turned to shit. The Rebublicans still don't have any answers for that. All credibility they had for opposing regime change was totally destroyed by their unfailing support for the ongoing Iraq debacle. Furthermore, what made it a debacle was the awful hamfisted stringing together of a coalition of cronies. This crisis is totally different, Obama is being drawn in quite reluctantly by an internationally led effort to help Libya, and his commitment is only the bit that the US military has always done best - blowing things up from the sky.
As for the economy, which is the thing most likely to sink the Democrats - the Republicans can still be blamed for that, just as Labour is being blamed here. The difference is Labour's actual culpability for the international credit crisis is rather small compared to that of the Republicans.
So I think the guy's still got a decent chance. Once he hits the campaign trail, unless some totally unknown charismatic leader for the American Right rears their head, they're heading for a hiding to nowhere.
-
Hard News: Libya, in reply to glennd,
Of course North Korea is not the same. It is a million times worse, for North Koreans, but no one is about to go aiding them. Even if the North sinks Southern ships, fires on Southern islands etc. So you are correct, not the same at all.
Yes, but part of the problem is the considerably greater threat posed by North Korea. It is quite likely that any action by them would lead to the immediate destruction of Seoul and millions of deaths. It's not wonderful that they get away with being total bastards, but that is how they're doing it, and failing to attack them is extremely sensible. It's comparably dangerous to attacking a superpower.
Libya has very much more limited military resources, which means that the overwhelming force you were suggesting is "more moral" can be brought to bear. And is being brought.
The situation is similar to the decision about how to deal with a violent individual or a rioting crowd. In one case you just take them down and arrest them. In the other, it's considerably different and much more care is required.
-
Hard News: Libya, in reply to Don Christie,
I wonder what this thread would be like if the international community was still squabbling about whether to intervene whilst Gaddafi had regained control of Libyan cities and was still conducting house to house murders.
I think it would still be divided and for the same reasons. I don't think the people that are nervous about this are totally without reason. War is an extremely murky and dividing thing. Usually I'm dead against it. What is different this time is the regional plea to aid the rebels. Even the local fascists are shocked at the idea open and indiscriminate attacks on people protesting the regime, everyone around them, and serious credible threats to eradicate them without mercy.
Furthermore, the request is not for an invasion. It is for an evening of the odds. This gives the rebels a chance to show their numbers, and it gives hope to people there that might be sympathetic, but are terrified that they can't win.
It's not the most efficient way to oust a dictator - I think more people will die than if a massive invasion just toppled the regime outright. But it might be the right way to do it. When people fight for their own freedom, they value it more.
Edit: Of course, they still might get nailed.
-
Clinton's admission that there is ongoing dialogue with The Colonel indicates that all avenues were not exhausted before bombs were dropped.
Yes, he's very keen to exhaust all avenues, whilst simultaneously finishing off his internal opposition. There was never any attempt to exhaust all avenues of peaceful negotiation with them.
Last ←Newer Page 1 … 617 618 619 620 621 … 1066 Older→ First